Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Eli Lilly and Company stock $750, price $1,418, that is 47.1% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY · USOur calculation puts a fair price 47% below what the stock costs today.
Risks from the AI analysis
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $211.80 – $1,418 · fair‑value band $401.98 – $974.88 · the $1,418 price screens above the $749.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
Every Wednesday you see whether Eli Lilly and is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Company profile
Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products in the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and internationally.
Show moreShow less
The company offers cardiometabolic health products, including Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, Humulin U-500 for diabetes; Jardiance, Mounjaro, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes; and Zepbound for obesity.
It also provides oncology products, such as Cyramza for the second-line treatment of gastric cancer or gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers and head and neck cancers; Inluriyo for breast cancer; Jaypirca for chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma; Retevmo for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC; TYVYT for classic hodgkin's lymphoma; and Verzenio for breast cancer.
In addition, the company offers immunology products, which include Ebglyss for severe atopic dermatitis; Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, severe alopecia areata, and COVID-19; Omvoh for ulcerative colitis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis.
Further, it provides Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache, as well as Kisubla for symptomatic Alzheimer's disease.
The company has collaborations with Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc. for the Jardiance product family; and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and Genentech, Inc. for lebrikizumab, as well as license agreements with Almirall, S.A. for Ebglyss; and Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd for orforglipron; and strategic collaboration with Ascidian Therapeutics for discovery and development of therapies for undisclosed monogenic kidney diseases.
Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Stock analysis
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) currently trades at $1,418, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $749.92, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $374.96 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1,418 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $117.84, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $401.98 (bear) to $974.88 (bull), the price of $1,418 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Eli Lilly and Company reported revenue of $65.2B in FY2025 versus $28.3B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was $20.6B in FY2025, compounding +38.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3T Mega · P/E ratio 46.0 · P/S ratio 14.7 · EPS (TTM) $30.81 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 31.9% · Return on equity 86.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 19.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 98 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −47%, LLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 26 models by family
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $25.8M and none bought.
- SaleAnat HakimEVP, GC & Secretary2× since Aug 7, 2026: 10,000 shares, avg. $1,296$13.0MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
- SalePatrik JonssonEVP & President, LLY Int'l6,500 shares at $1,175$7.6MAug 17, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleDonald A ZakrowskiSVP, Finance, & CAO2× since Nov 13, 2025: 3,000 shares, avg. $1,127$3.4MAug 10, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleIlya YuffaEVP&Pres, LLY USA&Global Capab2,500 shares at $1,151$2.9MJun 10, 202610b5-1 plan
- SaleLILLY ENDOWMENT INCFormer 10% Shareholder19× since Nov 10, 2025: 1,830,828 shares, avg. $42,405$77.6BMay 6, 2026
Plus 35 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
LLY screens overvalued: fair value 47% below the price. Compare with Johnson & Johnson, →
Recent news
- Eli Lilly Stocks Rise 2.32% While Revenue Guidance Faces a Quality-of-Growth Test
- Novo Nordisk Stock Shrugs Off Eli Lilly Threat as Weight-Loss Pill Shines in Earnings
Compare Eli Lilly and Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- P/S ratio by industry
- EBIT margin by industry
- Stock screener with 62 metrics
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanofi SNY | $47.47 | $70.49 | +48% | vs LLY |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY | $64.19 | $75.91 | +18% | vs LLY |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $174.48 | $191.93 | +10% | vs LLY |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $478.48 | $507.39 | +6% | vs LLY |
| Novartis AG NOVN | CHF 134.12 | CHF 119.58 | −11% | vs LLY |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $294.83 | $259.62 | −12% | vs LLY |
| Merck & Co MRK | $150.36 | $129.26 | −14% | vs LLY |
| Roche Holding RO | CHF 399.00 | CHF 326.56 | −18% | vs LLY |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | $30.79 | $24.87 | −19% | vs LLY |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $276.32 | $168.85 | −39% | vs LLY |
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Healthcare stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of LLY?
What is the quality score of LLY?
What is the price target for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What is the Eli Lilly and Company stock forecast for 2026?
What is the revenue of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
Does Eli Lilly and Company pay a dividend?
What growth is priced into Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LLY use?
What is a reverse DCF?
How much growth has Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) delivered so far?
How fast is the sector of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) growing?
What is the free cash flow yield of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What is the intrinsic value of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
Is Eli Lilly and Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
Is fair value the same as the market price of LLY?
How much is Eli Lilly and Company worth?
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LLY?
What is the P/E ratio of LLY?
What is the PEG ratio of LLY?
How solid is the balance sheet of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
How far is LLY from its 52-week high?
Which stocks are comparable to Eli Lilly and Company?
Is Eli Lilly and Company stock attractive at the current price?
How is the fair value of LLY calculated?
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
What is the share price of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What should I pay attention to with Eli Lilly and Company right now?
Where does the earnings growth of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) come from?
Key figures of Eli Lilly and Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What is the P/S ratio of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What are the earnings per share of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What is the dividend yield of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What is the net margin of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What is the return on equity of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What is the EBIT return on assets of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
What is the operating margin of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
How fast is revenue growing at Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
How fast are earnings growing at Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)?
How much net debt does Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) carry?
Watch Eli Lilly and Company in the live analysis
One click puts Eli Lilly and Company on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.