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Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lincoln National Corporation stock $55.52, price $40.05, upside +38.6%, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

LN Lincoln National Corporation logo Some data Nov 8, 2026

Lincoln National Corporation

LNC · US
Speculative

The stock costs 28% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $55.52 · Undervalued (28%)
Solidly profitable · 16.3% net margin (TTM)
4.5% dividend yield · Low payout
Ranks above peers (9/13)
Upbeat coverage
Costs just 2.4 times its yearly profit.
Wide moat 73/100 · thin data
Insiders sold $2.4M (6M)
Some data
Quality 35/100
Weak Growth (revenue YoY +1.2 %/yr in USD)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Regulatory capital requirements for subsidiaries🚩Class action lawsuits over policy charges
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$58.47 $15.71 Fair Value $55.52 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $15.71 – $58.47 · fair‑value band $50.18 – $67.57 · the $40.05 price screens below the $55.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Life Insurance, Annuities, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services.

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The Life Insurance segment provides life insurance products, including term insurance, universal life insurance (UL), indexed universal life insurance, variable universal life insurance (VUL), linked-benefit UL and VUL products, and critical illness and long-term care riders.

Its Annuities segment offers variable, fixed, and registered index-linked annuities.

The Group Protection segment offers group nonmedical insurance products consisting of short and long-term disability and administration services, statutory disability; paid family medical leave administration and absence management services; term life; life; supplemental health insurance; accident, critical illness, and hospital indemnity benefits and dental and vision products to the employer marketplace through various forms of employee-paid and employer-paid plans.

Its Retirement Plan Services segment provides employers with retirement plan products and services primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace; individual and group variable annuities, group fixed annuities, and mutual fund-based programs; and various plan services, including plan recordkeeping, compliance testing, participant education, and trust and custodial services.

It distributes its products through consultants, brokers, planners, agents, financial advisors, third-party administrators, financial institutions, and other intermediaries. Lincoln National Corporation was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) currently trades at $40.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $55.52, implying the stock looks roughly 28% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $80.35 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $40.05 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $28.11, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $50.18 (bear) to $67.57 (bull), the price of $40.05 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Lincoln National Corporation reported revenue of $18.2B in FY2025 versus $17.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −25.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $7.9B Mid · P/E ratio 2.4 · P/S ratio 0.39 · EPS (TTM) $16.38 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 16.3% · Return on equity 33.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 73 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 39%, LNC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $50.18 Fair Value $55.52 Bull $67.57
Price $40.05 · Upside +38.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($12.46 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $50.18 $55.52 $67.57 76
Gordon GGM $18.27 $29.98 $42.73 68
DDM Multi-Stage $18.27 $26.24 $34.33 67
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $18.27 $29.98 $42.73 68
DDM Multi-Stage $18.27 $26.24 $34.33 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $60.26 $80.35 $100.44 63
Economic Profit
Residual Income $50.18 $55.52 $67.57 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 21
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 42
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 8
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 54
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 54
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 43
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 47
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 27
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.4M and none bought.

  • SaleSean WoodroffeEVP, Ch Ppl Comms Ent Srvc Off4× since Mar 2, 2026: 54,000 shares, avg. $36.54$2.0MAug 17, 2026
  • SaleCraigT T BeazerEVP & General Counsel30,000 shares at $34.45$1.0MJun 5, 2026
  • BuyJennifer ChartersEVP, Chief Information Officer300 shares at $32.61$9,783Mar 13, 2026
  • SaleJames Waltman ReidEVP Workplace Solutions3,050 shares at $41.81$127,521Feb 18, 2026
  • SaleJohn Christopher KennedyEVP, Chief Dist. & Brand Off3,519 shares at $44.15$155,364Dec 10, 2025
  • BuyOwen RyanDirector2,000 shares at $42.17$84,340Nov 12, 2025

Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.6% vs 2.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Note from the team Oct 15, 2026
AI conclusion: The reinsurance deal cuts exposure to capital-intensive legacy policies while retaining servicing, yet thin evidence, modest ROE and negative free cash flow indicate weak overall business quality with no durable strengths.
Main risk: Changes in insurance regulations or RBC calculations could increase required capital for life insurance subsidiaries, limiting dividend capacity or growth in new products.
Bull case: By maintaining strong RBC ratios through prudent management and shifts to less capital-intensive products, the company could adapt to regulatory changes and support steady growth in group protection and annuities.
Bear case: If regulatory capital rules tighten or litigation costs rise further, the company might face constrained flexibility, higher expenses and slower expansion in its core life and retirement segments.
Lincoln Financial just closed a reinsurance deal that moves most of a large guaranteed universal life block to Talcott while it keeps servicing the policies. The step reduces exposure to a capital-intensive legacy portfolio and builds on earlier transfers. Does the lower risk profile mainly free resources for steadier businesses or does the smaller retained book cap potential from that segment?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 77 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +38.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 33.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 16.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 33.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 19.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.54× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 2.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.72× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.39× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 3.5× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.01× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)85 · sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)97 · sector 37
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)90 · sector 55

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Life stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Ping An Insurance (Group) Company 601318 ¥54.50 ¥66.91 +23% vs LNC
China Life Insurance Company 601628 ¥35.51 ¥40.47 +14% vs LNC
Life Insurance Corporation LICI ₹394.00 ₹299.42 −24% vs LNC
Cathay Financial Holding 2882 106.00 TWD 71.53 TWD −33% vs LNC
Manulife Financial Corporation MFC $43.24 $26.70 −38% vs LNC
Fubon Financial Holding 2881 155.50 TWD 86.48 TWD −44% vs LNC
Aflac Incorporated AFL $124.06 $67.30 −46% vs LNC
AIA Group 1299 HK$78.45 HK$41.63 −47% vs LNC
MetLife, Inc MET $98.27 $48.73 −50% vs LNC
Great-West Lifeco Inc GWO C$90.17 C$41.90 −54% vs LNC

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Lincoln National Corporation: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lincoln National Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LNC

Frequently asked questions

Is Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $55.52 versus a price of $40.05, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LNC?
Our model-based fair value for Lincoln National Corporation is $55.52 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $40.05.
What is the quality score of LNC?
Lincoln National Corporation has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $55.52 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $50.18, optimistic scenario $67.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lincoln National Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $55.52, about +39% upside versus a price of $40.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $50.18, optimistic scenario $67.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
Lincoln National Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $20.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Lincoln National Corporation pay a dividend?
Lincoln National Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 4.49% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Lincoln National Corporation pays a dividend of $1.80 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 9, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 11.0% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lincoln National Corporation it is $55.52 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $40.05. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 3 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit).
Is Lincoln National Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, LNC trades below its calculated fair value: price $40.05, fair value $55.52, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LNC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($40.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($55.52). For Lincoln National Corporation the two are $15.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lincoln National Corporation worth?
The market values Lincoln National Corporation at about $7.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $40.05; our models calculate a fair value of $55.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LNC?
Our models span a range for Lincoln National Corporation: cautious scenario $50.18, base $55.52, optimistic $67.57 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $40.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LNC?
Lincoln National Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.4 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $55.52 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 8.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
What is the PEG ratio of LNC?
The PEG ratio of Lincoln National Corporation is 1.01 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lincoln National Corporation (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 33.3%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LNC from its 52-week high?
Lincoln National Corporation trades at $40.05, about 14% below its 52-week high of $46.48 and 27% above the low of $31.45 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $55.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lincoln National Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, China Life Insurance Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lincoln National Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $40.05, calculated fair value $55.52 (+39%), Quality Score 35/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LNC calculated?
We run Lincoln National Corporation through 4 models from 3 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $55.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Lincoln National Corporation currently trades 28% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $40.05. Our model-based fair value is $55.52, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lincoln National Corporation right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($50.18). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) come from?
Earnings per share at Lincoln National Corporation grew +9.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin +2.2 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Lincoln National Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
The market capitalisation of Lincoln National Corporation is $7.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lincoln National Corporation is 0.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
Earnings per share at Lincoln National Corporation are $16.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
The dividend yield of Lincoln National Corporation is 4.5% (payout 11.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
The net margin of Lincoln National Corporation is 16.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lincoln National Corporation is 33.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lincoln National Corporation is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
The operating margin of Lincoln National Corporation is 33.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
Revenue at Lincoln National Corporation is growing +19.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)?
Earnings per share at Lincoln National Corporation are growing +220% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) generate?
The free cash flow of Lincoln National Corporation is −$167M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) hold?
Lincoln National Corporation holds more cash than debt, $3.1B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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