Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $7.6B

Below-average quality, screening 73% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($59.60). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $15.88 – $59.12 · fair‑value band $59.60 – $99.33 · the $46.03 price screens below the $79.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) currently trades at $46.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $79.46, implying the stock looks roughly 72.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Lincoln National Corporation generated revenue of $18.8B at a net margin of 9.2%. Revenue grew 12.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $3.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $59.60 (bear case) to $99.33 (bull case); at $46.03, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 73%, LNC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($79.85) versus Dividend Discount ($27.93). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Life Insurance, Annuities, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services.

Full company description

Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Life Insurance, Annuities, Group Protection, and Retirement Plan Services. The Life Insurance segment provides life insurance products, including term insurance, universal life insurance (UL), indexed universal life insurance, variable universal life insurance (VUL), linked-benefit UL and VUL products, and critical illness and long-term care riders. Its Annuities segment offers variable, fixed, and registered index-linked annuities. The Group Protection segment offers group nonmedical insurance products consisting of short and long-term disability and administration services, statutory disability; paid family medical leave administration and absence management services; term life; life; supplemental health insurance; accident, critical illness, and hospital indemnity benefits and dental and vision products to the employer marketplace through various forms of employee-paid and employer-paid plans. Its Retirement Plan Services segment provides employers with retirement plan products and services primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace; individual and group variable annuities, group fixed annuities, and mutual fund-based programs; and various plan services, including plan recordkeeping, compliance testing, participant education, and trust and custodial services. It distributes its products through consultants, brokers, planners, agents, financial advisors, third-party administrators, financial institutions, and other intermediaries. Lincoln National Corporation was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Lincoln National Corporation reported revenue of $18.2B in FY2025 versus $17.6B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −25.3%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Insurance - Life · 95 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 66/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.