Methanex Corporation (MEOH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Methanex Corporation stock $32.15, price $66.33, that is 51.5% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.25 – $71.57 · fair‑value band $23.99 – $42.87 · the $66.33 price screens above the $32.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Methanex Corporation engages in the production and sale of methanol and ammonia in Asia Pacific, North America, Europe, and South America. It also owns and leases in-region storage and terminal facilities. The company serves chemical and petrochemical producers.
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Methanex Corporation was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Methanex Corporation (MEOH) currently trades at $66.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.15, 52% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $59.05 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the $66.33 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.51, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $23.99 (bear) to $42.87 (bull), the price of $66.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Methanex Corporation reported revenue of $3.6B in FY2025 versus $4.4B in FY2021, a compound −5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $79.9M in FY2025, compounding −36.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.1B Mid · P/E ratio 65.7 · P/S ratio 1.20 · EPS (TTM) $1.01 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 2.1% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −52%, MEOH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$23.99Fair Value $32.15Bull$42.87
Price $66.33 · Downside -51.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2308 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$50.23$78.64$117.4978
Growth DCF$51.70$77.60$111.3477
Residual Income$22.21$21.91$22.6276
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$50.23$78.64$117.4978
Owner Earnings$44.30$70.18$105.5775
5Y Revenue Exit$24.57$39.40$57.0971
5Y EBITDA Exit$35.66$59.32$85.5574
5Y P/E Exit$16.05$24.08$31.7270
10Y Revenue Exit$33.23$48.23$66.0366
10Y EBITDA Exit$40.72$61.37$86.3368
10Y P/E Exit$28.77$38.14$47.9464
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$7.02$17.57$22.7965
PEG = 1.0$3.22$4.59$5.9757
EPV$9.54$13.55$16.9972
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$3.36$6.04$9.3767
DDM Multi-Stage$3.36$4.98$6.6467
Multiples
P/E Multiple$13.16$17.55$21.9463
P/S Multiple$13.16$17.55$21.9457
P/B Multiple$47.47$63.30$79.1255
EV/EBIT$12.75$24.31$35.8762
EV/EBITDA$27.22$43.59$59.9765
EV/Revenue$4.96$16.47$27.9948
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$15.66$20.99$31.3353
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$51.70$77.60$111.3477
Rev-Margin DCF$24.57$40.49$58.2171
Economic Profit
Residual Income$22.21$21.91$22.6276
ROIC Compounder$9.54$13.55$16.9971
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$10.33$14.76$19.1967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−4.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21.7% vs −10.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−5.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.0% a year for the price and −7.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Limited durable moat in commodity chemicals stands as the main weakness while preserved idled facilities offer a modest operational buffer against feedstock issues.
Main risk: Continued reliance on affordable natural gas supplies across operations would hit cash generation and margins in the methanol business.
Methanex is idling its Titan methanol plant in Trinidad after failing to secure a new natural gas contract, joining the already idled Atlas facility in a preserved state. The moves reflect a focus on avoiding unviable feedstock costs in a region with tight gas balances, yet they also highlight ongoing reliance on affordable natural gas supplies across operations. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the shift toward more competitive assets deliver sustained cash generation, or will feedstock pressures continue to constrain the business?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 336 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−51.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.1% · Above median
Return on assets2.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)37.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)75.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.11× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)65.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.11× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.19× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)12.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA12.1× · Pricier than median
PEG0.20× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 69
PAST (return on equity)24· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)44· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)22· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Methanex Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MEOH
Frequently asked questions
Is Methanex Corporation (MEOH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.15 versus a price of $66.33, about 52% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MEOH?
Our model-based fair value for Methanex Corporation is $32.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $66.33.
What is the quality score of MEOH?
Methanex Corporation has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.99, optimistic scenario $42.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Methanex Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.15, about 52% lower versus a price of $66.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.99, optimistic scenario $42.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
Methanex Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Methanex Corporation pay a dividend?
Methanex Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.12% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Methanex Corporation (MEOH) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Methanex Corporation pays a dividend of $0.74 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 16, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2002. The payout ratio is 37.3% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 73.3%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 12.78 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Methanex Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -2.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MEOH use?
Our models discount Methanex Corporation at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Methanex Corporation that is -2.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Methanex Corporation (MEOH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Methanex Corporation grew +6.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -2.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Methanex Corporation (MEOH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Methanex Corporation (-2.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.22 %: that much free cash flow Methanex Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Methanex Corporation it is $32.15 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $66.33. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Methanex Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MEOH trades above its calculated fair value: price $66.33, fair value $32.15, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MEOH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($66.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.15). For Methanex Corporation the two are $34.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Methanex Corporation worth?
The market values Methanex Corporation at about $5.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $66.33; our models calculate a fair value of $32.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MEOH?
Our models span a range for Methanex Corporation: cautious scenario $23.99, base $32.15, optimistic $42.87 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $66.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MEOH?
Methanex Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 65.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.15 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 32.7 (reported for FY2025: 64.2). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 10.6. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 2.1, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 12.1.
What is the PEG ratio of MEOH?
The PEG ratio of Methanex Corporation is 0.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Methanex Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 1.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MEOH from its 52-week high?
Methanex Corporation trades at $66.33, about 7% below its 52-week high of $71.57 and 98% above the low of $33.54 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Methanex Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Dow Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Methanex Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $66.33, calculated fair value $32.15 (−52%), Quality Score 50/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MEOH calculated?
We run Methanex Corporation through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $32.15 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Methanex Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $66.33. Our model-based fair value is $32.15, about 52% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Methanex Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Methanex Corporation (MEOH) come from?
Earnings per share at Methanex Corporation grew −5.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.5 %, EBIT margin −6.0 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Methanex Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
The market capitalisation of Methanex Corporation is $5.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Methanex Corporation is 1.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
Earnings per share at Methanex Corporation are $1.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 65.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
The dividend yield of Methanex Corporation is 1.1% (payout 37.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 73.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
The net margin of Methanex Corporation is 2.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Methanex Corporation is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Methanex Corporation is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
The operating margin of Methanex Corporation is 37.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
Revenue at Methanex Corporation is growing +75.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Methanex Corporation (MEOH)?
Earnings per share at Methanex Corporation are growing +165% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Methanex Corporation (MEOH) carry?
The net debt of Methanex Corporation is $3.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026