Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Saudi Basic Industries Corp SAR 49.32, price SAR 47.90, upside +3.0%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 44.65 SAR – 111.47 SAR · fair‑value band 36.82 SAR – 73.62 SAR · the 47.90 SAR price screens below the 49.32 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Saudi Basic Industries Corporation manufactures, markets, and distributes chemicals, polymers, plastics, and agri-nutrients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, China, the Americas, Europe, Africa, rest of Asia, and internationally. The company operates in two segments: Petrochemicals and Agri-Nutrients.
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Saudi Basic Industries Corporation manufactures, markets, and distributes chemicals, polymers, plastics, and agri-nutrients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, China, the Americas, Europe, Africa, rest of Asia, and internationally. The company operates in two segments: Petrochemicals and Agri-Nutrients. It provides chemical products from hydrocarbon feedstock, including methane, ethane, propane, butane, and light naphtha; and olefins, methanol, aromatics, glycols, carbon dioxide, and methyl tert-butyl ether. The company also offers polyethylene products, including linear low-density polyethylene, low-density polyethylene, and high-density polyethylene; polypropylene products, such as homo, random, and impact polypropylene, as well as polypropylene compounds, homo polymer, random copolymer, impact copolymer, and specialty automotive grades; specialties products comprising resins, compounds and copolymers, and various thermosets and additives under the NORYL, ULTEM, EXTEM, and SILTEM brands; and polycarbonate, polyvinyl chloride, polyethylene terephthalate, polystyrene, and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene. In addition, it provides a range of fertilizer products, including urea, ammonia, and phosphate, as well as compound fertilizers. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Basic Industries Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Aramco Chemicals Company.
Stock analysis
Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) currently trades at 47.90 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 49.32 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 2.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 44.55 SAR per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the 47.90 SAR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 13.05 SAR, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 36.82 SAR (bear) to 73.62 SAR (bull), the price of 47.90 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Saudi Basic Industries Corp reported revenue of 117B SAR in FY2025 versus 175B SAR in FY2021, a compound −9.7%/yr. Reported net income was −25.8B SAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 144B SAR (≈ $38.3B) · P/S ratio 1.31 · EPS (TTM) −0.1900 SAR · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin −22.1% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% · Operating margin 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 3%, 2010 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 36.82 SARFair Value 49.32 SARBull 73.62 SAR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−14.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.9% (2020) → 3.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.7% a year for the price and +3.8% for the forecasts.
Compare Saudi Basic Industries Corp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 355 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−22% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)6.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Is Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 49.32 SAR versus a price of 47.90 SAR, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 2010?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 49.32 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 47.90 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2010?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 49.32 SAR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 36.82 SAR, optimistic scenario 73.62 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saudi Basic Industries Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 49.32 SAR, about +3% upside versus a price of 47.90 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 36.82 SAR, optimistic scenario 73.62 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 113B SAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Saudi Basic Industries Corp pay a dividend?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saudi Basic Industries Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +2.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2010 use?
Our models discount Saudi Basic Industries Corp at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saudi Basic Industries Corp that is +2.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saudi Basic Industries Corp grew -0.1 % a year. The price currently implies +2.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saudi Basic Industries Corp (+2.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.86 %: that much free cash flow Saudi Basic Industries Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saudi Basic Industries Corp it is 49.32 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 47.90 SAR. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saudi Basic Industries Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, 2010 trades below its calculated fair value: price 47.90 SAR, fair value 49.32 SAR, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2010?
No. The price is what the market pays today (47.90 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (49.32 SAR). For Saudi Basic Industries Corp the two are 1.42 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saudi Basic Industries Corp worth?
The market values Saudi Basic Industries Corp at about 144B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 47.90 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 49.32 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2010?
Our models span a range for Saudi Basic Industries Corp: cautious scenario 36.82 SAR, base 49.32 SAR, optimistic 73.62 SAR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 47.90 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saudi Basic Industries Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.5%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2010 from its 52-week high?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp trades at 47.90 SAR, about 22% below its 52-week high of 61.55 SAR and 1% above the low of 47.50 SAR (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 49.32 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saudi Basic Industries Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Zhejiang Juhua Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saudi Basic Industries Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 47.90 SAR, calculated fair value 49.32 SAR (+3%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2010 calculated?
We run Saudi Basic Industries Corp through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 49.32 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Saudi Basic Industries Corp currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 47.90 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 49.32 SAR, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saudi Basic Industries Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (36.82 SAR to 73.62 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Saudi Basic Industries Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The market capitalisation of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 144B SAR (≈ $38.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 1.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Basic Industries Corp are −0.1900 SAR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The dividend yield of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 6.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The net margin of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is −22.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
The operating margin of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Revenue at Saudi Basic Industries Corp is growing −10.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −14.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Earnings per share at Saudi Basic Industries Corp are growing −54.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) carry?
The net debt of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 9.3B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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