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Data-driven stock valuation

Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Macquarie Group Ltd stock A$124, price A$249, that is 50.2% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services AU · ISIN AU000000MQG1

MG Macquarie Group Ltd logo Broad data Nov 6, 2026

Macquarie Group Ltd

MQG · AU
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 50% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 21.1% net margin (TTM)
2.7% dividend yield · Sustainable
Wide moat 65/100
Broad data
Quality 55/100
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +188.7 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$123.84 · Strongly overvalued (−50.2%)
Trails peers (3/14)
Downbeat coverage

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩ASIC enforcement actions over compliance failures🚩Generative AI disrupting SaaS companies in lending book
Watch Macquarie Group Ltd for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$267.25 A$131.55 Fair Value A$123.84 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$131.55 – A$267.25 · fair‑value band A$91.89 – A$181.13 · the A$248.86 price screens above the A$123.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Macquarie Group Limited provides diversified financial services in Australia, New Zealand the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.

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It operates through four segments: Macquarie Asset Management (MAM); Banking and Financial Services (BFS); Commodities and Global Markets (CGM); and Macquarie Capital.

The MAM segment provides investment solutions to clients across various capabilities, including real assets, real estate, credit, equities and multi-asset and secondaries.

The BFS segment offers personal banking products comprising home loans, car loans, transaction and savings accounts, and credit cards; wealth management products, such as wrap platform and cash management, financial advisory, and private banking services, as well as investment and superannuation products.

It also provides deposit, lending, and payment solutions and services to business clients.

The CGM segment provides capital and financing, risk management, and physical execution and logistics solutions across power, gas, emissions, agriculture, oil, and resources sectors; market access to corporate and institutional clients; and specialist finance and asset management solutions.

The Macquarie Capital segment offers advisory and capital raising services.

This segment is also involved in specialist investing across private credit, private equity, real estate, growth equity, venture capital, and infrastructure and energy projects and companies; and brokerage business, including equity research, sales, execution capabilities, and corporate access.

Macquarie Group Limited was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG) currently trades at A$248.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$123.84, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$124.48 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$248.86 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$59.57, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: A$91.89 (bear) to A$181.13 (bull), the price of A$248.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Macquarie Group Ltd reported revenue of A$19.6B in FY2026 versus A$16.4B in FY2022, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$4.8B in FY2026, compounding +0.7%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap A$95.2B (≈ $65.6B) Large · P/E ratio 19.9 · P/S ratio 5.35 · EPS (TTM) A$12.49 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 21.1% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −50%, MQG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$91.89 Fair Value A$123.84 Bull A$181.13
Price A$248.86 · Downside -50.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$1.82 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income A$91.89 A$114.03 A$164.03 75
Gordon GGM A$58.05 A$123.84 A$202.48 66
DDM Multi-Stage A$58.05 A$102.85 A$129.50 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM A$58.05 A$123.84 A$202.48 66
DDM Multi-Stage A$58.05 A$102.85 A$129.50 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$123.99 A$165.32 A$206.65 63
P/B Multiple A$93.36 A$124.48 A$155.60 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$44.46 A$59.57 A$88.91 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$91.89 A$114.03 A$164.03 75

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 37
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 62
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 66
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 74
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 77
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 50
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 69
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.5% vs 8.7%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.49% → 34%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

MQG screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with Morgan Stanley →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Organization strengths in capital markets are offset by negative operating cash flow and high leverage that constrain flexibility and limit differentiation.
Main risk: Repeated ASIC lawsuits and licence conditions over misreporting of short sales and derivatives trades could lead to further fines, operational restrictions or reputational damage hitting Macquarie's markets and capital businesses.
Bull case: Macquarie could strengthen compliance frameworks and risk controls to resolve regulatory issues while expanding its role in financing AI infrastructure to offset any portfolio pressures.
Bear case: Ongoing regulatory scrutiny and AI-driven disruption in financed software firms could compound to limit deal flow, raise funding costs and constrain growth in capital markets and asset management activities.
Macquarie Capital has taken a stake in Singapore-based data center developer Zerra DC to back expansion across Australia, Japan and India. This move channels capital into AI-related infrastructure and could lift asset management fees, yet it also heightens exposure to long-cycle project risks and execution challenges. Will the annuity-style income from these holdings prove more stable than the volatility already embedded in its commodities and markets businesses?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Below median
Fair Value upside −50.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.2% · Above median
Return on assets 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 21.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 28.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 5.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 9.42× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 19.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.64× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 5.35× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 44.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.80× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)29 · sector 66
PAST (return on equity)45 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)54 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Morgan Stanley MS $182.44 $260.72 +43% vs MQG
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $92.58 $117.60 +27% vs MQG
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥16.46 ¥18.02 +9% vs MQG
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.51 $10.20 +7% vs MQG
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $868.95 $766.86 −12% vs MQG
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥25.72 ¥20.42 −21% vs MQG
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $78.39 $47.60 −39% vs MQG
Tradeweb Markets Inc TW $127.56 $49.65 −61% vs MQG
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.78 ¥6.72 −64% vs MQG
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $72.73 $17.48 −76% vs MQG

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Macquarie Group Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Macquarie Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MQG

Frequently asked questions

Is Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$123.84 versus a price of A$248.86, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MQG?
Our model-based fair value for Macquarie Group Ltd is A$123.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$248.86.
What is the quality score of MQG?
Macquarie Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$123.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$91.89, optimistic scenario A$181.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Macquarie Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$123.84, about 50% lower versus a price of A$248.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$91.89, optimistic scenario A$181.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
Macquarie Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$17.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Macquarie Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Macquarie Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.69% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Macquarie Group Ltd it is A$123.84 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of A$248.86. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Macquarie Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MQG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$248.86, fair value A$123.84, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MQG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$248.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$123.84). For Macquarie Group Ltd the two are A$125.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Macquarie Group Ltd worth?
The market values Macquarie Group Ltd at about A$95.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is A$248.86; our models calculate a fair value of A$123.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MQG?
Our models span a range for Macquarie Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$91.89, base A$123.84, optimistic A$181.13 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price A$248.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MQG?
Macquarie Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$123.84 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 15.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 2.6, P/S 5.4, EV/EBITDA 44.2.
What is the PEG ratio of MQG?
The PEG ratio of Macquarie Group Ltd is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Macquarie Group Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 11.2%, debt of 9.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MQG from its 52-week high?
Macquarie Group Ltd trades at A$248.86, about 7% below its 52-week high of A$267.25 and 33% above the low of A$186.62 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$123.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Macquarie Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Macquarie Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price A$248.86, calculated fair value A$123.84 (−50%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MQG calculated?
We run Macquarie Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$123.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Macquarie Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$248.86. Our model-based fair value is A$123.84, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Macquarie Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$181.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$91.89 to A$181.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG) come from?
Earnings per share at Macquarie Group Ltd grew +7.9 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Macquarie Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
The market capitalisation of Macquarie Group Ltd is A$95.2B (≈ $65.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Macquarie Group Ltd is 5.35 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
Earnings per share at Macquarie Group Ltd are A$12.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
The dividend yield of Macquarie Group Ltd is 2.7% (payout 53.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
The net margin of Macquarie Group Ltd is 21.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Macquarie Group Ltd is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Macquarie Group Ltd is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
The operating margin of Macquarie Group Ltd is 28.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
Revenue at Macquarie Group Ltd is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)?
Earnings per share at Macquarie Group Ltd are growing +6.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG) generate?
The free cash flow of Macquarie Group Ltd is −A$9.3B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG) carry?
The net debt of Macquarie Group Ltd is A$68.9B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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