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Data-driven stock valuation

Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Financial Services · US · Market cap $26.2B · ISIN US65535H2085

At a glance

NH Nomura Holdings Inc ADR logo Nomura Holdings Inc ADR NMR · US
Price$10.65
Fair Value$10.47
Upside−1.7%
Quality40/100

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of $10.47.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is $10.47 per share against a price of $10.65, so the fair value sits 2% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +27.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 16.7% net margin
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·3.61% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/14)
!Moderate moat 50/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Medium Range $7.85 to $13.09

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $9.99 to $10.47 (+4.8%) since Aug 31, 2026. Share price +7.3% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$10.65 $2.57 Fair Value $10.47 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.57 – $10.65 · fair‑value band $7.85 – $13.09 · the $10.65 price screens above the $10.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

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Analysis

Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) currently trades at $10.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.47, implying the stock looks roughly 1.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 16 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Nomura Holdings Inc ADR generated revenue of ¥2.2T at a net margin of 16.7%. Revenue grew 27.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.1%. Net debt stands at ¥13.0T. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $7.85 (bear) to $13.09 (bull), the price of $10.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −2%, NMR screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $1,108 $1,228 $1,897 70
Graham-Dodd $842.46 $3,072 $4,145 64
P/E Multiple $1,208 $1,611 $2,013 63
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $842.46 $3,072 $4,145 64
Lynch FV $731.08 $1,044 $1,358 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $1,208 $1,611 $2,013 63
P/B Multiple $1,332 $1,776 $2,220 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $634.26 $849.91 $1,269 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $1,108 $1,228 $1,897 70

Widest divergence: Multiples ($1,611) versus Asset-Based ($849.91). Highest evidence: Residual Income (70).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.4
P/S ratio 1.10 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.7400 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4
Dividend yield 3.6% payout 52.0%
Net margin 7.6% FY2026
Return on equity 10.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 18.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥2.2T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +27.5% 3y avg +27.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +4.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −¥1.2T FY2026
Net debt ¥13.0T FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 86
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 97
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Wealth Management segment offers asset management services.

Full company description

Nomura Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of investment, financing, and related services to individual, institutional, and government clients worldwide. It operates through three segments: Wealth Management, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Wealth Management segment offers asset management services. The Investment Management segment provides investment management services and investment solutions, such as establishing and managing investment trusts, discretionary investment services, investment and management for investment vehicles, funds for institutional investors, and management of silent partnerships. The Wholesale segment is involved in the sales and trading of debt and equity securities, foreign exchange; offers investment banking services, including underwriting and distribution of debt and equity securities, mergers and acquisitions, and financial advisory services. Nomura Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1925 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Nomura Holdings Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥4.8T in FY2026 versus ¥1.4T in FY2022, a compound +36.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥362B in FY2026, compounding +26.1%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$4.8T
Latest YoY
+5.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+27.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+27.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +23.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+19.6%
Dividend yield3.6%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 19.6% vs 10Y 7.1%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16.3% (2021) → 11.3% (2026) · falling
Worst earnings drop497% (2009) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
⚠ Final year 2026 sits 126% above trend (one-off), rate approximate
Revenue +36.4%/yr
FY22 ¥1.4T
FY23 ¥2.3T
FY24 ¥4.0T
FY25 ¥4.5T
FY26 ¥4.8T
Net income +26.1%/yr
FY22 ¥143B
FY23 ¥92.8B
FY24 ¥166B
FY25 ¥341B
FY26 ¥362B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +6.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +14.0 %

of which total revenue +11.7 % · buybacks/dilution +2.0 %

EBIT margin −6.1 %
Tax rate −0.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Nomura Holdings Inc ADR · Fair Value
$10.47 −2%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nomura Holdings Inc ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NMR

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Capital Markets · 457 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 19% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 28% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.71× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.4× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.81× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE31 · sector 13
FUTURE100 · sector 91
PAST40 · sector 30
HEALTH0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND72 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $217.72 $138.97 −36%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $1,039 $756.89 −27%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $110.16 $66.17 −40%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $104.26 $30.94 −70%
Macquarie Group MQG A$251.87 A$75.58 −70%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥27.93 ¥17.68 −37%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.87 ¥18.62 +4%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥19.42 ¥4.77 −75%
CSC Financial Co 601066 ¥25.78 ¥14.17 −45%
Huatai Securities Co 601688 ¥19.56 ¥19.26 −2%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.47 versus a price of $10.65, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of NMR?
Our model-based fair value for Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is $10.47 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.65.
What is the quality score of NMR?
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.47 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.85, optimistic scenario $13.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nomura Holdings Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.47, about −2% upside versus a price of $10.65 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $7.85, optimistic scenario $13.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR (NMR)?
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.2T (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NMR?
The net profit margin of Nomura Holdings Inc ADR is about 16.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 16.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Nomura Holdings Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Nomura Holdings Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
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