NTPC Limited (NTPC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NTPC Limited stock ₹439, price ₹317, upside +38.5%, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹92.93 – ₹421.29 · fair‑value band ₹349.42 – ₹631.42 · the ₹316.70 price screens below the ₹438.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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NTPC Limited operates as an integrated power company in India. It operates through two segments: Generation and Others. The company generates power from fossil fuels, hydro, solar, wind, nuclear, and renewable energy sources. It also engages in the coal mining and energy trading business.
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NTPC Limited was incorporated in 1975 and is based in New Delhi, India.
Stock analysis
NTPC Limited (NTPC) currently trades at ₹316.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹438.75, implying the stock looks roughly 28% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹458.76 per share, and 4 of the 17 models we run sit above the ₹316.70 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at ₹113.27, and 13 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ₹349.42 (bear) to ₹631.42 (bull), the price of ₹316.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
NTPC Limited reported revenue of ₹1.9T in FY2026 versus ₹1.3T in FY2022, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was ₹295B in FY2026, compounding +15.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹3.1T (≈ $32.5B) Large · P/E ratio 11.1 · P/S ratio 1.53 · EPS (TTM) ₹28.63 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 14.8% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 39%, NTPC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹349.42Fair Value ₹438.75Bull₹631.42
Price ₹316.70 · Upside +38.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹11.92 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income₹199.01₹243.75₹350.7975
Owner Earningsn/a₹38.51>₹154.0473
EPV₹72.93₹113.27₹147.3472
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earningsn/a₹38.51>₹154.0473
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd₹206.99₹795.28₹1,07864
Lynch FV₹194.12₹277.31₹360.5061
PEG = 1.0₹194.12₹277.31₹360.5057
EPV₹72.93₹113.27₹147.3472
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM₹73.76₹138.09₹196.6767
DDM Multi-Stage₹73.76₹123.57₹146.8967
Multiples
P/E Multiple₹410.94₹547.92₹684.9063
P/S Multiple₹362.34₹483.12₹603.9058
P/B Multiple₹186.69₹248.92₹311.1555
EV/EBIT₹142.46₹280.35₹418.2463
EV/EBITDA₹156.39₹298.92₹441.4664
EV/Revenue₹63.40₹206.81₹350.2249
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)₹104.17₹139.59₹208.3554
Economic Profit
Residual Income₹199.01₹243.75₹350.7975
ROIC Compounder₹72.93₹113.27₹147.3471
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E₹321.13₹458.76₹596.3967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.4% vs 11.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2005 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 19%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (51 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: The regulated utility benefits from its scale in serving rising power demand, yet public sector structure limits pricing power and innovation while weak free cash flow and high debt constrain flexibility.
Main risk: NTPC sells most of its power under long-term PPAs to state distribution companies with weak credit profiles, which could lead to payment delays or defaults that affect cash flows and margins despite mitigation mechanisms.
Bull case: NTPC could leverage its government backing and scale to secure better payment terms or diversify offtakers while accelerating its shift to nuclear and renewables for stable long-term demand.
Bear case: Persistent payment issues from discoms combined with slower-than-expected diversification could constrain cash flows and limit NTPC's ability to fund its capacity expansion plans.
NTPC just reported a sharp jump in quarterly profit and revenue as power demand rises and its plants run efficiently. At the same time the group keeps declaring new solar and battery storage capacity online while pursuing nuclear and international projects. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will the steady regulated returns from the expanding non-thermal portfolio lift overall profitability or add complexity that offsets the gains?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside+38.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)14.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)21.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.02× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NTPC Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NTPC
Frequently asked questions
Is NTPC Limited (NTPC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹438.75 versus a price of ₹316.70, about +39% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NTPC?
Our model-based fair value for NTPC Limited is ₹438.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹316.70.
What is the quality score of NTPC?
NTPC Limited has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹438.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹349.42, optimistic scenario ₹631.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NTPC Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹438.75, about +39% upside versus a price of ₹316.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹349.42, optimistic scenario ₹631.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
NTPC Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹2.0T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does NTPC Limited pay a dividend?
NTPC Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 2.79% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NTPC Limited it is ₹438.75 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ₹316.70. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NTPC Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, NTPC trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹316.70, fair value ₹438.75, a gap of about +39% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NTPC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹316.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹438.75). For NTPC Limited the two are ₹122.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NTPC Limited worth?
The market values NTPC Limited at about ₹3.1T (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ₹316.70; our models calculate a fair value of ₹438.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NTPC?
Our models span a range for NTPC Limited: cautious scenario ₹349.42, base ₹438.75, optimistic ₹631.42 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ₹316.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NTPC?
NTPC Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹438.75 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 11.4 (reported for FY2026: 10.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2019 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 10.3. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 7.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
Balance-sheet figures for NTPC Limited (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 14.5%, debt of 1.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NTPC from its 52-week high?
NTPC Limited trades at ₹316.70, about 22% below its 52-week high of ₹405.82 and 6% above the low of ₹298.00 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹438.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NTPC Limited?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NTPC Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ₹316.70, calculated fair value ₹438.75 (+39%), Quality Score 41/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NTPC calculated?
We run NTPC Limited through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹438.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. NTPC Limited currently trades 28% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ₹316.70. Our model-based fair value is ₹438.75, about +39% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NTPC Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹349.42). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range (₹349.42 to ₹631.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of NTPC Limited (NTPC) come from?
Earnings per share at NTPC Limited grew +10.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.2 %, EBIT margin +1.7 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of NTPC Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
The market capitalisation of NTPC Limited is ₹3.1T (≈ $32.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NTPC Limited is 1.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
Earnings per share at NTPC Limited are ₹28.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
The dividend yield of NTPC Limited is 2.8% (payout 33.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 30.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
The net margin of NTPC Limited is 14.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NTPC Limited is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NTPC Limited is 12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
The operating margin of NTPC Limited is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
Revenue at NTPC Limited is growing +21.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NTPC Limited (NTPC)?
Earnings per share at NTPC Limited are growing +38.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does NTPC Limited (NTPC) generate?
The free cash flow of NTPC Limited is −₹97.4B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does NTPC Limited (NTPC) carry?
The net debt of NTPC Limited is ₹2.6T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026