ONEOK Inc (OKE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ONEOK Inc stock $59.87, price $88.60, that is 32.4% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 32% below what the stock costs today.
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +31.8 %/yr in USD)
Generates free cash flow
4.8% dividend yield · Sustainable
Upbeat coverage
Broad data
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +44%, profit +43%.
Thin margins · 9.4% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Moderate moat55/100
Fair value $59.87 · Overvalued (−32.4%)
Quality 39/100
Trails peers(5/15)
⟳ Cyclical
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Enterprise Products Partners' new NGL pipelines🚩Nuclear or renewables displacing gas for data centers🚩PHMSA pipeline safety enforcement and environmental fines
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.60 – $107.12 · fair‑value band $33.46 – $106.07 · the $88.60 price screens above the $59.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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ONEOK, Inc. operates as a midstream service provider of gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage, and marine export services in the United States.
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It operates in four segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing; Natural Gas Liquids; Natural Gas Pipelines; and Refined Products and Crude.
The company owns natural gas gathering pipelines and processing plants in the Mid-Continent, Permian Basin, North Texas, Gulf Coast region, and Rocky Mountain regions; and provides midstream services to producers of NGLs. It also owns NGL gathering and distribution pipelines, fractionation, terminal and storage facilities; and transports refined products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, kerosene, and heating oil.
In addition, the company transports and stores natural gas through regulated interstate and intrastate natural gas transmission pipelines, and natural gas storage facilities; it owns and operates a parking garage in downtown Tulsa, Oklahoma; and leases buildings, warehouses, office space, land, and equipment, including pipeline equipment, pipeline capacity, rail cars, and information technology equipment.
Further, the company transports, stores, and distributes refined products, purity NGLs, and crude oil, as well as conducts commodity-related activities, including liquids blending and marketing activities.
It serves integrated and independent exploration and production companies; other NGL and natural gas gathering and processing companies; crude oil and natural gas production companies; utilities; industrial companies; natural gasoline distributors; propane distributors; municipalities; ethanol producers; petrochemical, refining, and marketing companies; and diluent users, refineries, and exporters.
ONEOK, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Stock analysis
ONEOK Inc (OKE) currently trades at $88.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.87, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $81.59 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $88.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.25, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $33.46 (bear) to $106.07 (bull), the price of $88.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ONEOK Inc reported revenue of $33.6B in FY2025 versus $17.3B in FY2021, a compound +18.1%/yr. Reported net income was $3.4B in FY2025, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $55.9B Large · P/E ratio 13.6 · P/S ratio 1.29 · EPS (TTM) $6.52 · Dividend yield 4.8% · Net margin 9.4% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −32%, OKE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$33.46Fair Value $59.87Bull$106.07
Price $88.60 · Downside -32.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.90 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+55.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.8%
Per share before 2014divided by the spin-off factor 1.1422
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.8% vs 13.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 21%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.4%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.1% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate infrastructure stability supported by long-term fixed-fee contracts is undermined by thin differentiation and exposure to volume and cycle risks.
Main risk: Enterprise Products Partners' Bahia pipeline and integrated export infrastructure could capture more Permian NGL volumes from producers, reducing throughput or pressuring margins on ONEOK's competing gathering, processing and transport assets.
Bull case: ONEOK could leverage its expanded Permian fixed-fee contracts and integrated system to secure additional long-term gas supply deals for data centers while partnering on hybrid power solutions that combine gas with emerging technologies.
Bear case: If rival pipelines divert significant Permian NGL volumes and alternative power sources reduce gas demand from data centers, ONEOK's processing and transport utilization could decline sharply, pressuring earnings despite recent capacity additions.
ONEOK has completed the acquisition of Brazos Midstream’s Permian Midland Basin assets, more than doubling its processing capacity there under long-term fixed-fee contracts on dedicated acreage. This expands its fee-based midstream platform in a high-growth basin while also using proceeds from a large minority equity investment to cut debt. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the new capacity and contract stability deliver enough earnings growth to close that gap?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−32.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.0% · Above median
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)12.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)44.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.37× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)13.6× · Pricier than median
P/B2.48× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.29× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow22.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.2× · Pricier than median
PEG1.83× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)60· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)32· sector 55
DIVIDEND (yield)97· sector 76
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ONEOK Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OKE
Frequently asked questions
Is ONEOK Inc (OKE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $59.87 versus a price of $88.60, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OKE?
Our model-based fair value for ONEOK Inc is $59.87 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $88.60.
What is the quality score of OKE?
ONEOK Inc has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $59.87 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $33.46, optimistic scenario $106.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ONEOK Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $59.87, about 32% lower versus a price of $88.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $33.46, optimistic scenario $106.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
ONEOK Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $43.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does ONEOK Inc pay a dividend?
ONEOK Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.83% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ONEOK Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +17.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OKE use?
Our models discount ONEOK Inc at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ONEOK Inc that is +17.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ONEOK Inc (OKE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ONEOK Inc grew +31.8 % a year. The price currently implies +17.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ONEOK Inc (OKE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ONEOK Inc (+17.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.37 %: that much free cash flow ONEOK Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ONEOK Inc it is $59.87 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $88.60. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ONEOK Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, OKE trades above its calculated fair value: price $88.60, fair value $59.87, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OKE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($88.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($59.87). For ONEOK Inc the two are $28.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ONEOK Inc worth?
The market values ONEOK Inc at about $55.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $88.60; our models calculate a fair value of $59.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OKE?
Our models span a range for ONEOK Inc: cautious scenario $33.46, base $59.87, optimistic $106.07 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $88.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of OKE?
ONEOK Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $59.87 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 16.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 2.5, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 11.2.
What is the PEG ratio of OKE?
The PEG ratio of ONEOK Inc is 1.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
Balance-sheet figures for ONEOK Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 1.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OKE from its 52-week high?
ONEOK Inc trades at $88.60, about 9% below its 52-week high of $97.51 and 43% above the low of $61.95 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $59.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ONEOK Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ONEOK Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $88.60, calculated fair value $59.87 (−32%), Quality Score 39/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OKE calculated?
We run ONEOK Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $59.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. ONEOK Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $88.60. Our model-based fair value is $59.87, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ONEOK Inc right now?
Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($33.46 to $106.07). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of ONEOK Inc (OKE) come from?
Earnings per share at ONEOK Inc grew +15.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.7 %, EBIT margin +7.2 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ONEOK Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
The market capitalisation of ONEOK Inc is $55.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ONEOK Inc is 1.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
Earnings per share at ONEOK Inc are $6.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
The dividend yield of ONEOK Inc is 4.8% (payout 65.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
The net margin of ONEOK Inc is 9.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ONEOK Inc is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ONEOK Inc is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
The operating margin of ONEOK Inc is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
Revenue at ONEOK Inc is growing +44.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ONEOK Inc (OKE)?
Earnings per share at ONEOK Inc are growing +43.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ONEOK Inc (OKE) carry?
The net debt of ONEOK Inc is $32.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026