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Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Riot Platforms, Inc. stock $13.29, price $17.52, that is 24.1% below the price, quality 25 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Financial Services US

RP Riot Platforms, Inc. logo Thin data Nov 13, 2026

Riot Platforms, Inc.

RIOT · US

Expensive (fair value 24% below the price) and weak company, but rising price: meets 1 of 3 rules.

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Rising price (uptrend) 
Low debt 
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +121.7 %/yr in USD) 
Insiders sold $5.1M (6M) 
Fair value $13.29 · Overvalued 
Quality 25/100 
Loss-making · -102.4% net margin (FY2025) 
Negative free cash flow 
Trails peers (0/10) 
Narrow moat 17/100 · thin data
Recent news very negative 
Thin data 
Estimate

Main risks:

🚩Bridge loan maturity before rents🚩Texas ERCOT audit and governor pressure🚩Heavy reliance on single AI tenant
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$44.19 $3.29 Fair Value $13.29 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.29 – $44.19 · fair‑value band $9.96 – $16.61 · the $17.52 price screens above the $13.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Riot Platforms, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a Bitcoin mining company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Bitcoin Mining and Engineering. The company offers comprehensive and critical infrastructure for bitcoin mining and data center services at its facilities.

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The company also designs and manufactures power distribution equipment and engineered-to-order electrical products; and electricity distribution product design, manufacturing, and installation services for large-scale industrial and governmental customers, as well as data center, power generation, utility, water, industrial, and alternative energy markets.

The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Castle Rock, Colorado.

Stock analysis

Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) currently trades at $17.52, while our estimate is $13.29, 24% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $9.96 (bear) to $16.61 (bull), the price of $17.52 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Riot Platforms, Inc. reported revenue of $647M in FY2025 versus $213M in FY2021, a compound +32.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$663M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $6.1B Mid · P/S ratio 8.20 · EPS (TTM) $−4.12 · Net margin −102% · Return on equity −50.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 11.7% · Revenue (TTM) $676M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −24%, RIOT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $9.96 Fair Value $13.29 Bull $16.61
Price $17.52 · Downside -24.1%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 25/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 8
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 68
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 25
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 41
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 30
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $5.1M and none bought.

  • SaleRyan D. WernerSVP, CAO4× since May 27, 2026: 128,552 shares, avg. $24.92$3.2MAug 5, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleJason LesCEO, Director2× since May 11, 2026: 237,703 shares, avg. $26.48$6.3MJun 22, 202610b5-1 plan

Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 13, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+71.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+121.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +124.6% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−128.7% (2020) → −61.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

RIOT screens overvalued: fair value 24% below the price. Compare with Morgan Stanley →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: The business shows potential strength through AI data center contracts with long-term leases, yet its main weakness remains heavy reliance on cyclical Bitcoin mining amid negative margins and returns.
Main risk: The Morgan Stanley bridge facility maturing in December 2026 could require costly refinancing or dilution if project debt is unavailable, squeezing margins on data center builds.
Bull case: Riot could secure non-recourse project debt on favorable terms using its contracted leases and strong liquidity to complete builds on schedule and generate stable long-term income from AI tenants.
Bear case: Failure to refinance the bridge facility without dilution combined with Texas regulatory delays could stall data center projects, leaving Riot exposed to volatile Bitcoin mining cash flows for longer.
Riot is directing significant capital toward AI data center builds backed by long-term leases while Bitcoin mining still generates most current revenue. Those contracts carry multi-billion-dollar potential but first rents arrive only after the 2026 bridge financing matures. Will project execution and new debt structures deliver stable returns before mining swings reassert themselves?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 454 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −24.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −16.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −102.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 11.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.13× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 9.02× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)1 · sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)4 · sector 58
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 46

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Morgan Stanley MS $190.65 $260.72 +37% vs RIOT
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $92.98 $117.60 +26% vs RIOT
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥16.08 ¥18.02 +12% vs RIOT
Nomura Holdings NMR $9.70 $10.09 +4% vs RIOT
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $916.56 $831.46 −9% vs RIOT
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥25.00 ¥20.42 −18% vs RIOT
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $77.86 $47.60 −39% vs RIOT
Macquarie Group MQG A$244.17 A$144.90 −41% vs RIOT
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.29 ¥6.72 −63% vs RIOT
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $81.79 $16.66 −80% vs RIOT

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Riot Platforms, Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Riot Platforms, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RIOT

Frequently asked questions

Is Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 13, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $13.29 versus a price of $17.52, about 24% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RIOT?
Our estimate for Riot Platforms, Inc. is $13.29 (as of Nov 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.52.
What is the quality score of RIOT?
Riot Platforms, Inc. has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $13.29 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Cautious scenario $9.96, optimistic scenario $16.61. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Riot Platforms, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $13.29, about 24% lower versus a price of $17.52 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.96, optimistic scenario $16.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Riot Platforms, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $676M (latest available figure, as of Nov 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Riot Platforms, Inc. it is $13.29 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026), against a price of $17.52.
Is Riot Platforms, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 13, 2026, RIOT trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.52, fair value $13.29, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RIOT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.29). For Riot Platforms, Inc. the two are $4.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Riot Platforms, Inc. worth?
The market values Riot Platforms, Inc. at about $6.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 13, 2026). Per share that is $17.52; our models calculate a fair value of $13.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RIOT?
Our models span a range for Riot Platforms, Inc.: cautious scenario $9.96, base $13.29, optimistic $16.61 per share (as of Nov 13, 2026, price $17.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Riot Platforms, Inc. (as of Nov 13, 2026): return on equity −50.5%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RIOT from its 52-week high?
Riot Platforms, Inc. trades at $17.52, about 39% below its 52-week high of $28.69 and 48% above the low of $11.83 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Riot Platforms, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Riot Platforms, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 13, 2026: price $17.52, calculated fair value $13.29 (−24%), Quality Score 25/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Riot Platforms, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was $17.52. Our estimate is $13.29, about 24% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Riot Platforms, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.61). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Riot Platforms, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The market capitalisation of Riot Platforms, Inc. is $6.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Riot Platforms, Inc. is 8.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Earnings per share at Riot Platforms, Inc. are $−4.12. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The net margin of Riot Platforms, Inc. is −102% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Riot Platforms, Inc. is −50.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Riot Platforms, Inc. is −9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The operating margin of Riot Platforms, Inc. is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Revenue at Riot Platforms, Inc. is growing +0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Earnings per share at Riot Platforms, Inc. are growing −96.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) generate?
The free cash flow of Riot Platforms, Inc. is −$774M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) carry?
The net debt of Riot Platforms, Inc. is $46.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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