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Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Riot Platforms, Inc. $4.54, price $21.62, upside -79.0%, quality 20 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US7672921050

RP Riot Platforms, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 28, 2026

Riot Platforms, Inc.

RIOT · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $4.54 · Strongly overvalued (−79.0%)
!Quality 20/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +121.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -196.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/10)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$44.19 $3.29 Fair Value $4.54 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.29 – $44.19 · fair‑value band $3.39 – $6.78 · the $21.62 price screens above the $4.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Riot Platforms, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a Bitcoin mining company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Bitcoin Mining and Engineering. The company offers comprehensive and critical infrastructure for bitcoin mining and data center services at its facilities.

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Riot Platforms, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a Bitcoin mining company in the United States. It operates in two segments, Bitcoin Mining and Engineering. The company offers comprehensive and critical infrastructure for bitcoin mining and data center services at its facilities. The company also designs and manufactures power distribution equipment and engineered-to-order electrical products; and electricity distribution product design, manufacturing, and installation services for large-scale industrial and governmental customers, as well as data center, power generation, utility, water, industrial, and alternative energy markets. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Castle Rock, Colorado.

Stock analysis

Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) currently trades at $21.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.54, 79.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $3.39 (bear) to $6.78 (bull), the price of $21.62 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Riot Platforms, Inc. reported revenue of $647M in FY2025 versus $213M in FY2021, a compound +32.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$663M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $8.6B · P/S ratio 12.8 · EPS (TTM) $−3.84 · Net margin −102% · Return on equity −48.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −9.4% · Operating margin −122% · Revenue (TTM) $675M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −79%, RIOT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.39 Fair Value $4.54 Bull $6.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $3.81 $5.10 $7.62 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.81 $5.10 $7.62 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 62
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 30
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+71.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+121.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +124.6% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−128.7% (2020) → −61.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

RIOT screens overvalued: fair value 79% below the price. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 464 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −79.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −21.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −196.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −122.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 13.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.02× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 12.80× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)70 · sector 98
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS $196.31 $314.07 +60%
The Goldman Sachs Group GS $935.45 $766.86 −18%
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW $99.03 $118.07 +19%
Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $89.24 $23.12 −74%
Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD $119.40 $47.77 −60%
Macquarie Group MQG A$239.53 A$80.51 −66%
CITIC Securities Company 600030 ¥26.29 ¥18.35 −30%
Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 ¥17.21 ¥19.35 +12%
East Money Information Co 300059 ¥18.28 ¥4.94 −73%
Nomura Holdings NMR $10.06 $10.25 +2%

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Riot Platforms, Inc. · Fair Value
$4.54 −79%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Riot Platforms, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RIOT

Frequently asked questions

Is Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.54 versus a price of $21.62, about −79% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RIOT?
Our model-based fair value for Riot Platforms, Inc. is $4.54 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.62.
What is the quality score of RIOT?
Riot Platforms, Inc. has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.54 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.39, optimistic scenario $6.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Riot Platforms, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.54, about −79% upside versus a price of $21.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.39, optimistic scenario $6.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Riot Platforms, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $675M (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Riot Platforms, Inc. it is $4.54 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $21.62. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Riot Platforms, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, RIOT trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.62, fair value $4.54, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RIOT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.54). For Riot Platforms, Inc. the two are $17.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Riot Platforms, Inc. worth?
The market values Riot Platforms, Inc. at about $8.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $21.62; our models calculate a fair value of $4.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RIOT?
Our models span a range for Riot Platforms, Inc.: cautious scenario $3.39, base $4.54, optimistic $6.78 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $21.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Riot Platforms, Inc. (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity −48.2%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RIOT from its 52-week high?
Riot Platforms, Inc. trades at $21.62, about 25% below its 52-week high of $28.69 and 83% above the low of $11.83 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Riot Platforms, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Riot Platforms, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $21.62, calculated fair value $4.54 (−79%), Quality Score 20/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RIOT calculated?
We run Riot Platforms, Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Riot Platforms, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was $21.62. Our model-based fair value is $4.54, about −79% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Riot Platforms, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($3.39 to $6.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Riot Platforms, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The market capitalisation of Riot Platforms, Inc. is $8.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Riot Platforms, Inc. is 12.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Earnings per share at Riot Platforms, Inc. are $−3.84. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The net margin of Riot Platforms, Inc. is −102% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Riot Platforms, Inc. is −48.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Riot Platforms, Inc. is −9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
The operating margin of Riot Platforms, Inc. is −122% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Revenue at Riot Platforms, Inc. is growing +13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT)?
Earnings per share at Riot Platforms, Inc. are growing +37.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) generate?
The free cash flow of Riot Platforms, Inc. is −$774M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) carry?
The net debt of Riot Platforms, Inc. is $46.3M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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