SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SM Prime Holdings Inc stock PHP 15.25, price PHP 17.84, that is 14.5% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 15.70 PHP – 37.42 PHP · fair‑value band 7.96 PHP – 22.96 PHP · the 17.84 PHP price screens above the 15.25 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH) currently trades at 17.84 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15.25 PHP, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 18.46 PHP per share, and 5 of the 16 models we run sit above the 17.84 PHP price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 2.72 PHP, and 11 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 7.96 PHP (bear) to 22.96 PHP (bull), the price of 17.84 PHP sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SM Prime Holdings Inc reported revenue of 140B PHP in FY2024 versus 81.9B PHP in FY2020, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was 45.6B PHP in FY2024, compounding +26.2%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap 807B PHP (≈ $12.8B) Large · P/E ratio 27.6 · P/S ratio 8.97 · EPS (TTM) 1.01 PHP · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 32.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 87% fair-value upside, at −15%, SMPH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear7.96 PHPFair Value 15.25 PHPBull22.96 PHP
Price 17.84 PHP · Downside -14.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2024 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.01 PHP per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in PHP (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in PHP: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+24.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48% → 49%
2024 sits 52% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
AI conclusion: Large-scale real estate operator with solid margins as key strength, yet limited innovation signals and elevated total debt relative to scale as main weakness.
Main risk: Low-cost e-commerce platforms could attract shoppers away from SM Prime's malls, lowering foot traffic and squeezing rental revenues or occupancy rates in its recurring-income assets.
Bull case: By investing in experiential retail, dining and community events SM Prime could enhance mall appeal and maintain or grow visitor numbers despite online options.
Bear case: If e-commerce captures a larger share of retail spending SM Prime's mall revenues might decline significantly as physical shopping loses relevance.
SM Prime is shifting more spending toward malls and other recurring-income assets after joining a 25 percent cut in 2026 capex plans. Strong venue attendance growth stands in contrast to ongoing pressure on residential sales. Will the expansion of stable rental streams outweigh the drag from weaker property development?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Operations · 33 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−14.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets4.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)32.5% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Operations median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SM Prime Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMPH
Frequently asked questions
Is SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 15.25 PHP versus a price of 17.84 PHP, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMPH?
Our model-based fair value for SM Prime Holdings Inc is 15.25 PHP (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 17.84 PHP.
What is the quality score of SMPH?
SM Prime Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 15.25 PHP (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7.96 PHP, optimistic scenario 22.96 PHP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SM Prime Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 15.25 PHP, about 15% lower versus a price of 17.84 PHP (overvalued). Cautious scenario 7.96 PHP, optimistic scenario 22.96 PHP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does SM Prime Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
SM Prime Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.29% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SM Prime Holdings Inc it is 15.25 PHP per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of 17.84 PHP. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SM Prime Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, SMPH trades above its calculated fair value: price 17.84 PHP, fair value 15.25 PHP, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMPH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (17.84 PHP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (15.25 PHP). For SM Prime Holdings Inc the two are 2.59 PHP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SM Prime Holdings Inc worth?
The market values SM Prime Holdings Inc at about 807B PHP (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is 17.84 PHP; our models calculate a fair value of 15.25 PHP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMPH?
Our models span a range for SM Prime Holdings Inc: cautious scenario 7.96 PHP, base 15.25 PHP, optimistic 22.96 PHP per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price 17.84 PHP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMPH?
SM Prime Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 15.25 PHP is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2024), reported earnings: 34.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH)?
Balance-sheet figures for SM Prime Holdings Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMPH from its 52-week high?
SM Prime Holdings Inc trades at 17.84 PHP, about 24% below its 52-week high of 23.48 PHP and 14% above the low of 15.70 PHP (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 15.25 PHP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SM Prime Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value AC, ALI, MEG, RLC, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SM Prime Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price 17.84 PHP, calculated fair value 15.25 PHP (−15%), Quality Score 63/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMPH calculated?
We run SM Prime Holdings Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 15.25 PHP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. SM Prime Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 17.84 PHP. Our model-based fair value is 15.25 PHP, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SM Prime Holdings Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide (7.96 PHP to 22.96 PHP). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of SM Prime Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH)?
The market capitalisation of SM Prime Holdings Inc is 807B PHP (≈ $12.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SM Prime Holdings Inc is 8.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH)?
Earnings per share at SM Prime Holdings Inc are 1.01 PHP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH)?
The dividend yield of SM Prime Holdings Inc is 1.3% (payout 22.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH)?
The net margin of SM Prime Holdings Inc is 32.5% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SM Prime Holdings Inc (SMPH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SM Prime Holdings Inc is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
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