T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of T&D Holdings Inc stock $10.61, price $14.96, that is 29.1% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.81 – $16.98 · fair‑value band $9.62 – $13.23 · the $14.96 price screens above the $10.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
Follow T&D Holdings Inc ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether T&D Holdings Inc ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
T&D Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services in Japan.
Show moreShow less
The company offers personal, individual pension, group, group annuity; and others insurances, including asset-building, asset-building pension, medical, disability, and reinsurance; medical coverage and living benefit coverage; and in-force individual insurance and individual annuity insurances.
It also offers health care, living benefit guarantees, dementia prevention and cancer and serious illness prevention insurance, as well as involved in the acquisition of investment properties. In addition, It engages in the closed book, asset management, and pet insurance businesses.
The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY) currently trades at $14.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.61, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $13.62 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $14.96 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.13, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.62 (bear) to $13.23 (bull), the price of $14.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
T&D Holdings Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥3.0T in FY2026 versus ¥1.7T in FY2022, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥147B in FY2026, compounding +79.5%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $14.4B Large · P/E ratio 15.7 · P/S ratio 0.76 · EPS (TTM) $0.9500 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −29%, TDHOY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.62Fair Value $10.61Bull$13.23
Price $14.96 · Downside -29.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5778 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+25.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.0% vs 10.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 7%
AI conclusion: The Japanese life insurer delivers average profitability through established operations yet shows its main weakness in limited differentiation across moat factors.
Main risk: Rising lapse rates in the life insurance books threaten to reduce returns by increasing surrenders and pressuring capital management outcomes.
Our models see it as overvalued. T&D Holdings completed a large share repurchase program in September while posting profit growth amid shifting revenue. Rising lapse rates in its life insurance books now stand out as a potential drag on those returns. Will the capital management ultimately add more lasting value than the surrenders take away?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−29.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.3% · Below median
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)18.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−12.0% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.14× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.61 versus a price of $14.96, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TDHOY?
Our model-based fair value for T&D Holdings Inc is $10.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.96.
What is the quality score of TDHOY?
T&D Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.62, optimistic scenario $13.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the T&D Holdings Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.61, about 29% lower versus a price of $14.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.62, optimistic scenario $13.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
T&D Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.8T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does T&D Holdings Inc ADR pay a dividend?
T&D Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.83% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
T&D Holdings Inc has a dividend yield of 2.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2011. The payout ratio is 43.1% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For T&D Holdings Inc it is $10.61 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $14.96. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is T&D Holdings Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TDHOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.96, fair value $10.61, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TDHOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.61). For T&D Holdings Inc the two are $4.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is T&D Holdings Inc ADR worth?
The market values T&D Holdings Inc at about $14.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $14.96; our models calculate a fair value of $10.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TDHOY?
Our models span a range for T&D Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $9.62, base $10.61, optimistic $13.23 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $14.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TDHOY?
T&D Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.61 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 13.1. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 1.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for T&D Holdings Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.14 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TDHOY from its 52-week high?
T&D Holdings Inc trades at $14.96, about 12% below its 52-week high of $16.98 and 52% above the low of $9.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to T&D Holdings Inc ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, China Life Insurance Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is T&D Holdings Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $14.96, calculated fair value $10.61 (−29%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TDHOY calculated?
We run T&D Holdings Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $10.61 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. T&D Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $14.96. Our model-based fair value is $10.61, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with T&D Holdings Inc ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY) come from?
Earnings per share at T&D Holdings Inc grew +7.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.4 %, EBIT margin +1.5 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of T&D Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
The market capitalisation of T&D Holdings Inc is $14.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of T&D Holdings Inc is 0.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
Earnings per share at T&D Holdings Inc are $0.9500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
The dividend yield of T&D Holdings Inc is 2.8% (payout 44.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
The net margin of T&D Holdings Inc is 4.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of T&D Holdings Inc is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of T&D Holdings Inc is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
The operating margin of T&D Holdings Inc is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
Revenue at T&D Holdings Inc is growing −12.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY)?
Earnings per share at T&D Holdings Inc are growing +20.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY) generate?
The free cash flow of T&D Holdings Inc is ¥145B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does T&D Holdings Inc (TDHOY) hold?
T&D Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, ¥1.7T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch T&D Holdings Inc ADR in the live analysis
One click puts T&D Holdings Inc ADR on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 6, 2026