TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TFS Financial Corporation stock $5.61, price $16.43, that is 65.9% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.32 – $18.27 · fair‑value band $5.49 – $7.12 · the $16.43 price screens above the $5.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
Follow TFS Financial in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether TFS Financial is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
TFS Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides retail consumer banking services in the United States. The company offers deposit products, including savings, money market, checking, individual retirement, and other qualified plan accounts, as well as certificates of deposit.
Show moreShow less
It also provides residential real estate mortgage loans, residential construction loans, purchase mortgages, and home equity loans and lines of credit, as well as purchase mortgages and first mortgage refinance loans. In addition, the company offers escrow and settlement services.
TFS Financial Corporation was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TFS Financial Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland, MHC.
Stock analysis
TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) currently trades at $16.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.61, 66% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $7.32 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $16.43 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.56, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.49 (bear) to $7.12 (bull), the price of $16.43 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
TFS Financial Corporation reported revenue of $839M in FY2026 versus $433M in FY2022, a compound +18.0%/yr. Reported net income was $101M in FY2026, compounding +7.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $4.6B Mid · P/E ratio 45.6 · P/S ratio 13.3 · EPS (TTM) $0.3600 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin 29.4% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −66%, TFSL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.49Fair Value $5.61Bull$7.12
Price $16.43 · Downside -65.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $529,200, on May 29, 2026. Over the same period, 8 people sold shares worth $1.4M.
SaleBradley T StefanskiChief Strategy Officer10,000 shares at $16.94$169,400Sep 11, 2026
SaleMarc A StefanskiChairman, President and CEO, Director3× since Feb 11, 2026: 55,000 shares, avg. $15.50$852,436Sep 8, 2026
SaleAshley H WilliamsDirector2× since Dec 12, 2025: 17,600 shares, avg. $15.72$276,616Sep 8, 2026
SaleMeredith S WeilChief Financial Officer, Director7× since Nov 12, 2025: 58,638 shares, avg. $15.15$888,465Sep 3, 2026
SaleBarbara J. AndersonDirector2× since Feb 3, 2026: 17,100 shares, avg. $15.50$265,073Aug 31, 2026
SaleGavin B StefanskiChief Experience Officer2× since Feb 20, 2026: 13,500 shares, avg. $16.60$224,065Aug 5, 2026
BuyDaniel F WeirDirector3× since May 12, 2026: 35,000 shares, avg. $15.12$529,200May 29, 2026
SaleAndrew J RubinoChief Operating Officer3× since Nov 24, 2025: 12,194 shares, avg. $14.83$180,895May 26, 2026
SaleCathy W ZbanekChief Synergy Officer2× since Dec 3, 2025: 30,000 shares, avg. $14.51$435,200May 18, 2026
BuyAnthony J AsherDirector2× since Dec 15, 2025: 6,439 shares, avg. $13.49$86,838Mar 12, 2026
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.3% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.3% vs 2.4%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 15%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The mutual holding structure reinforces reliable payouts via waived dividends and supports a conservative focus on savings and mortgage lending, yet thin evidence and low ROE indicate limited competitive advantage and adaptability.
Main risk: The mutual holding structure's priority on stability over aggressive expansion risks limiting the bank's ability to adapt in regional banking and could constrain mortgage and savings business growth.
TFS Financial is structured as a mutual holding company where the MHC owns 81 percent of the shares and regularly waives its dividend rights to direct more cash to public investors. This setup supports a conservative focus on savings and mortgage lending but keeps major decisions aligned with the mutual's emphasis on stability over aggressive expansion. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Does the arrangement ultimately reinforce reliable payouts or limit the company's ability to adapt in regional banking?
Compare TFS Financial Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−65.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)29.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)45.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.61 versus a price of $16.43, about 66% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TFSL?
Our model-based fair value for TFS Financial Corporation is $5.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.43.
What is the quality score of TFSL?
TFS Financial Corporation has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.61 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.49, optimistic scenario $7.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TFS Financial Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.61, about 66% lower versus a price of $16.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.49, optimistic scenario $7.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
TFS Financial Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $347M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does TFS Financial Corporation pay a dividend?
TFS Financial Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 6.88% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) and when is the ex-dividend date?
TFS Financial Corporation pays a dividend of $1.13 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 9, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2014. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What is the intrinsic value of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TFS Financial Corporation it is $5.61 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $16.43. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is TFS Financial Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TFSL trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.43, fair value $5.61, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TFSL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.61). For TFS Financial Corporation the two are $10.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TFS Financial Corporation worth?
The market values TFS Financial Corporation at about $4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $16.43; our models calculate a fair value of $5.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TFSL?
Our models span a range for TFS Financial Corporation: cautious scenario $5.49, base $5.61, optimistic $7.12 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $16.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TFSL?
TFS Financial Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.61 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 48.7. Other multiples: PEG 72.6, P/B 2.3, P/S 13.3, EV/EBITDA 14.7.
What is the PEG ratio of TFSL?
The PEG ratio of TFS Financial Corporation is 72.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
Balance-sheet figures for TFS Financial Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 2.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TFSL from its 52-week high?
TFS Financial Corporation trades at $16.43, about 10% below its 52-week high of $18.27 and 33% above the low of $12.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TFS Financial Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TFS Financial Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $16.43, calculated fair value $5.61 (−66%), Quality Score 54/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TFSL calculated?
We run TFS Financial Corporation through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $5.61 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. TFS Financial Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $16.43. Our model-based fair value is $5.61, about 66% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TFS Financial Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) come from?
Earnings per share at TFS Financial Corporation grew +1.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.7 %, EBIT margin −7.6 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of TFS Financial Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
The market capitalisation of TFS Financial Corporation is $4.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TFS Financial Corporation is 13.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
Earnings per share at TFS Financial Corporation are $0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
The dividend yield of TFS Financial Corporation is 6.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
The net margin of TFS Financial Corporation is 29.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TFS Financial Corporation is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TFS Financial Corporation is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
The operating margin of TFS Financial Corporation is 45.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
Revenue at TFS Financial Corporation is growing +15.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL)?
Earnings per share at TFS Financial Corporation are growing +42.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) generate?
The free cash flow of TFS Financial Corporation is $71.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) carry?
The net debt of TFS Financial Corporation is $5.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 74.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch TFS Financial Corporation in the live analysis
One click puts TFS Financial Corporation on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 6, 2026