United Utilities Group PLC (UU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of United Utilities Group PLC stock £7.06, price £15.63, that is 54.8% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £6.80 – £15.63 · fair‑value band £4.54 – £9.87 · the £15.63 price screens above the £7.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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United Utilities Group PLC provides water and wastewater services in the United Kingdom. It is involved in the renewable energy generation, corporate trustee, financing, and property management activities. The company operates approximately 122,000 kilometers of water and wastewater pipes.
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United Utilities Group PLC was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Warrington, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
United Utilities Group PLC (UU) currently trades at £15.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £7.06, 55% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £11.34 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the £15.63 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at £1.17, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £4.54 (bear) to £9.87 (bull), the price of £15.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
United Utilities Group PLC reported revenue of £2.6B in FY2026 versus £1.9B in FY2022, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was £587M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap £10.7B Large · P/E ratio 18.4 · P/S ratio 4.08 · EPS (TTM) £0.8500 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 22.4% · Return on equity 27.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 78 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −55%, UU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£4.54Fair Value £7.06Bull£9.87
Price £15.63 · Downside -54.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.1878 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.47/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.9% vs 4.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 42%
2026 sits 187% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
AI conclusion: Regulatory barriers deliver a moderate moat with stable returns in the water sector, yet negative free cash flow and high leverage constrain the business.
Main risk: Ofwat could approve less than the requested additional funding for network resilience and growth projects in the North West, which would force United Utilities to scale back its capital programme and delay asset expansions.
Bull case: United Utilities could secure full Ofwat backing for its re-opener requests and leverage the DPC model to attract efficient private partners, accelerating delivery of resilience projects while maintaining regulatory returns through expanded asset base growth.
Bear case: Repeated shortfalls in Ofwat approvals combined with mandatory competitive tendering could constrain investment capacity, slow network upgrades and expose the company to greater delivery risks from external providers on core infrastructure.
United Utilities is pushing ahead with its major AMP8 capital programme while seeking Ofwat approval for around a billion pounds in additional spending to strengthen network resilience and enable growth in the North West. Securing that funding by the December decision could sustain the planned asset expansion, but any shortfall would force adjustments to the delivery schedule. Will the regulator back the full request to support regional needs, or will the company have to operate within tighter limits?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 65 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−54.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)22.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)41.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.01× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.77× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.08× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.6× · Pricier than median
PEG1.12× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 33
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)69· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "United Utilities Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UU
Frequently asked questions
Is United Utilities Group PLC (UU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £7.06 versus a price of £15.63, about 55% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UU?
Our model-based fair value for United Utilities Group PLC is £7.06 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £15.63.
What is the quality score of UU?
United Utilities Group PLC has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £7.06 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario £4.54, optimistic scenario £9.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the United Utilities Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £7.06, about 55% lower versus a price of £15.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £4.54, optimistic scenario £9.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
United Utilities Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does United Utilities Group PLC pay a dividend?
United Utilities Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 3.44% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For United Utilities Group PLC it is £7.06 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of £15.63. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is United Utilities Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, UU trades above its calculated fair value: price £15.63, fair value £7.06, a gap of about −55% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£15.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£7.06). For United Utilities Group PLC the two are £8.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is United Utilities Group PLC worth?
The market values United Utilities Group PLC at about £10.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is £15.63; our models calculate a fair value of £7.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UU?
Our models span a range for United Utilities Group PLC: cautious scenario £4.54, base £7.06, optimistic £9.87 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price £15.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UU?
United Utilities Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £7.06 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 15.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 4.8, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 12.6.
What is the PEG ratio of UU?
The PEG ratio of United Utilities Group PLC is 1.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
Balance-sheet figures for United Utilities Group PLC (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 27.7%, debt of 5.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UU from its 52-week high?
United Utilities Group PLC trades at £15.63, at its 52-week high of £15.63 and 41% above the low of £11.12 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £7.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to United Utilities Group PLC?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, American States Water Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is United Utilities Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price £15.63, calculated fair value £7.06 (−55%), Quality Score 54/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UU calculated?
We run United Utilities Group PLC through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £7.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. United Utilities Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was £15.63. Our model-based fair value is £7.06, about 55% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with United Utilities Group PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£9.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (£4.54 to £9.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of United Utilities Group PLC (UU) come from?
Earnings per share at United Utilities Group PLC grew −1.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.0 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate −2.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of United Utilities Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
The market capitalisation of United Utilities Group PLC is £10.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of United Utilities Group PLC is 4.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
Earnings per share at United Utilities Group PLC are £0.8500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
The dividend yield of United Utilities Group PLC is 3.4% (payout 63.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
The net margin of United Utilities Group PLC is 22.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of United Utilities Group PLC is 27.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of United Utilities Group PLC is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
The operating margin of United Utilities Group PLC is 41.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
Revenue at United Utilities Group PLC is growing +22.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at United Utilities Group PLC (UU)?
Earnings per share at United Utilities Group PLC are growing +115% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does United Utilities Group PLC (UU) generate?
The free cash flow of United Utilities Group PLC is −£110M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does United Utilities Group PLC (UU) carry?
The net debt of United Utilities Group PLC is £9.7B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026