American Water Works Company (AWK) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $26.2B
American Water Works Company
AWK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($99.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($49.35 to $99.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $107.75 – $171.30 · fair‑value band $49.35 – $99.51 · the $134.82 price screens above the $65.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
American Water Works Company (AWK) currently trades at $134.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $65.80, implying the stock looks roughly 51.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, American Water Works Company generated revenue of $5.2B at a net margin of 21.2%. Revenue grew 5.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at $15.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $49.35 (bear case) to $99.51 (bull case); at $134.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -51%, AWK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($99.38) versus Economic Profit ($24.38). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
American Water Works Company, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides water and wastewater services in the United States. It offers water and wastewater services on military installations; and undertakes contracts with municipal customers, primarily to operate and manage water and wastewater facilities, as well as offers other related services.
Full company description
American Water Works Company, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides water and wastewater services in the United States. It offers water and wastewater services on military installations; and undertakes contracts with municipal customers, primarily to operate and manage water and wastewater facilities, as well as offers other related services. The company also operates approximately 80 surface water treatment plants; 520 groundwater treatment plants; 170 wastewater treatment plants; 55,000 miles of transmission, distribution, and collection mains and pipes; 1,200 groundwater wells; 1,800 water and wastewater pumping stations; 1,100 treated water storage facilities; and 75 dams. In addition, it offers water and wastewater services to 14 states serving approximately 3.6 million active customers. The company serves residential customers; commercial customers, including food and beverage providers, commercial property developers and proprietors, and energy suppliers; fire service and private fire customers; industrial customers, such as large-scale manufacturers, mining, and production operations; public authorities comprising government buildings and other public sector facilities, such as schools and universities; and other utilities and community water and wastewater systems. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Camden, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American Water Works Company reported revenue of $5.1B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding −3.2%/yr from FY2021.
AWK screens 51% overvalued. Compare with SBSP3 →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Missouri American Water Announces Annual Firefighting Support Grant Program
- American Water Works Company (AWK) Pushes Acquisitions After Q2, Is The Stock Expensive?
- American Water Works Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Illinois American Water Celebrates One Year of Expanded Income-Based Discount Program
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 67 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SBSP3 SBSP3 | R$29.22 | R$31.23 | +7% |
| SBS SBS | $5.79 | $5.21 | -10% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $38.59 | $21.81 | -43% |
| CSMG3 CSMG3 | R$66.10 | R$60.17 | -9% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.42 | ¥33.29 | +13% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $85.01 | $48.02 | -44% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥6.97 | ¥10.74 | +54% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $49.73 | $33.56 | -33% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.08 | ¥2.86 | -30% |
| H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO | $62.47 | $41.30 | -34% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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