American States Water Company (AWR) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $3.3B
American States Water Company
AWR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +4.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($60.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $62.95 – $93.76 · fair‑value band $34.77 – $60.03 · the $87.39 price screens above the $48.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
American States Water Company (AWR) currently trades at $87.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $48.02, implying the stock looks roughly 45.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, American States Water Company generated revenue of $679M at a net margin of 19.7%. Revenue grew 14.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.2%. Net debt stands at $924M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $34.77 (bear case) to $60.03 (bull case); at $87.39, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -45%, AWR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($51.64) versus Earnings-Based ($17.57). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water, Electric, and Contracted Services.
Full company description
American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers in the United States. It operates through three segments: Water, Electric, and Contracted Services. The company purchases, produces, distributes, and sells water, as well as distributes electricity. It provides water service to approximately 265,100 customers; and distributes electricity to approximately 24,900 customers in several San Bernardino County Mountain communities in California. The company also offers water and/or wastewater services at various military installations. American States Water Company was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in San Dimas, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American States Water Company reported revenue of $658M in FY2025 versus $499M in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was $130M in FY2025, compounding +8.4%/yr from FY2021.
AWR screens 45% overvalued. Compare with SBSP3 →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- American States Water Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- AWR Q2 Earnings Top Estimates on Water Rate Increases, Revenues Up Y/Y
- Should Stronger Q2 Earnings And Higher Dividend Require Action From American States Water (AWR) Investors?
- American States Water (AWR) Following Q2 Results And Dividend Hike Still Looks Pricey
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 67 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $134.33 | $65.80 | -51% |
| SBSP3 SBSP3 | R$29.22 | R$31.23 | +7% |
| SBS SBS | $5.79 | $5.21 | -10% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $38.59 | $21.81 | -43% |
| CSMG3 CSMG3 | R$66.10 | R$60.17 | -9% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.42 | ¥33.29 | +13% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥6.97 | ¥10.74 | +54% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $49.73 | $33.56 | -33% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.12 | ¥2.77 | -33% |
| H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO | $62.47 | $41.30 | -34% |
Compare American States Water Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Utilities stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is American States Water Company (AWR) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of AWR?
What is the quality score of AWR?
What is the revenue of American States Water Company (AWR)?
What is the net profit margin of AWR?
Does American States Water Company pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track American States Water Company and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.