Chongqing Water Group (601158) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · CN · Market cap 19.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 8, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 8, 2026, revised from ¥2.86 to ¥2.77 (−3.1%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +1.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.86 – ¥6.12 · fair‑value band ¥2.15 – ¥2.91 · the ¥4.12 price screens above the ¥2.77 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 8, 2026.
Analysis
Chongqing Water Group (601158) currently trades at ¥4.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.77, implying the stock looks roughly 32.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Chongqing Water Group generated revenue of 7.5B CNY at a net margin of 11.1%. Revenue grew 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.8%. Net debt stands at 7.9B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 8, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥2.15 (bear case) to ¥2.91 (bull case); at ¥4.12, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -33%, 601158 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥2.86) versus Growth DCF (¥0.3500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. engages in water supply, wastewater treatment, sludge treatment and disposal, engineering construction, and other businesses in China. The company is also involved in the production and supply of tap water; sewage water treatment; and recycled water. It operates and manages tap water and sewage treatment plants.
Full company description
Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. engages in water supply, wastewater treatment, sludge treatment and disposal, engineering construction, and other businesses in China. The company is also involved in the production and supply of tap water; sewage water treatment; and recycled water. It operates and manages tap water and sewage treatment plants. In addition, the company engages in municipal public works; building construction; water conservancy and hydroelectric engineering; electromechanical engineering and other engineering construction; environmental pollution control, construction engineering and municipal public engineering supervision; and manufacture of water supply and drainage equipment. Further, it sells materials; and installs pipeline and water meters, etc. Additionally, the company collects physical, chemical, and biochemical treatment of domestic and industrial sewage, initial rainwater, and other wastewater, ensuring compliance with national environmental standards before discharge; manages wet sludge generated from urban wastewater treatment plants, utilizing aerobic fermentation, co-firing, combined heat and power, and thermal drying to achieve reduction, stabilization, and harmlessness. The company was formerly known as Chongqing Water Holding (Group) Co., Ltd. Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2001 and is based in Chongqing, China. Chongqing Water Group Co.,Ltd. is a subsidiary of Chongqing Derun Environment Co., Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chongqing Water Group reported revenue of ¥7.5B in FY2025 versus ¥7.3B in FY2021, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥809M in FY2025, compounding −21.0%/yr from FY2021.
601158 screens 33% overvalued. Compare with American Water Works Company →
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 67 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 8, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $134.33 | $65.80 | -51% |
| SBSP3 SBSP3 | R$29.22 | R$31.23 | +7% |
| SBS SBS | $5.79 | $5.21 | -10% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $38.59 | $21.81 | -43% |
| CSMG3 CSMG3 | R$66.10 | R$60.17 | -9% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.42 | ¥33.29 | +13% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $85.01 | $48.02 | -44% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥6.97 | ¥10.74 | +54% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $49.73 | $33.56 | -33% |
| H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO | $62.47 | $41.30 | -34% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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