Hengbao Co Ltd (002104) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hengbao Co Ltd stock ¥2.32, price ¥8.98, that is 74.2% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.77 – ¥30.50 · fair‑value band ¥1.74 – ¥2.90 · the ¥8.98 price screens above the ¥2.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Hengbao Co.,Ltd. engages in the financial technology, Internet of Things, digital security and digital services in China and internationally.
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The company offers card payment and security services; blockchain finance, digital asset wallet, and supply chain financial platform; mobile communications and the internet of things, including sim, esim, and M2M card.
It also provides smart password key, electronic token, Bluetooth USBKEY, mobile smart terminal mobile phone shield, and other products; and tax security products, such as tax control disk, transmission disks, tax control Ukey, and PSAM cards.
In addition, the company offers bluetooth secure reading and writing terminal, mPOS, mobile POS, and face recognition payment terminal; and one card cloud and mobile payment platform services.
Further, it serves its products to financial industry, communications industry, mobile payment cloud platform, automotive, and composite material solutions. Hengbao Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Danyang, China.
Stock analysis
Hengbao Co Ltd (002104) currently trades at ¥8.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥2.32, 74% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥2.67 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥8.98 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at ¥1.04, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥1.74 (bear) to ¥2.90 (bull), the price of ¥8.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Hengbao Co Ltd reported revenue of 866M CNY in FY2025 versus 960M CNY in FY2021, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was 58.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.4B CNY (≈ $955M) Small · P/S ratio 9.65 · EPS (TTM) ¥−0.0700 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin −7.3% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −20.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −74%, 002104 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥0.9400 to ¥7.94). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥1.74Fair Value ¥2.32Bull¥2.90
Price ¥8.98 · Downside -74.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −7.2% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +1.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 1.7% / −14.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 5.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.076 per share, median 0.22 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Business Equipment & Supplies · 78 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−74.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−7.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−20.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−20.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Business Equipment & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hengbao Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002104
Frequently asked questions
Is Hengbao Co Ltd (002104) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥2.32 versus a price of ¥8.98, about 74% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 002104?
Our model-based fair value for Hengbao Co Ltd is ¥2.32 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.98.
What is the quality score of 002104?
Hengbao Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥2.32 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥1.74, optimistic scenario ¥2.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hengbao Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥2.32, about 74% lower versus a price of ¥8.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥1.74, optimistic scenario ¥2.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
Hengbao Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 687M CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does Hengbao Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Hengbao Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.37% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hengbao Co Ltd pays a dividend of ¥0.033 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 24, 2026. The payout ratio is 39.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 6.20 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hengbao Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +22.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.8 % per year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002104 use?
Our models discount Hengbao Co Ltd at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hengbao Co Ltd that is +22.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hengbao Co Ltd (002104) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hengbao Co Ltd grew -3.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +22.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hengbao Co Ltd (+22.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.28 %: that much free cash flow Hengbao Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hengbao Co Ltd it is ¥2.32 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of ¥8.98. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hengbao Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, 002104 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥8.98, fair value ¥2.32, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002104?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥2.32). For Hengbao Co Ltd the two are ¥6.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hengbao Co Ltd worth?
The market values Hengbao Co Ltd at about 6.4B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.98; our models calculate a fair value of ¥2.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002104?
Our models span a range for Hengbao Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥1.74, base ¥2.32, optimistic ¥2.90 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price ¥8.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hengbao Co Ltd (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity −2.4%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002104 from its 52-week high?
Hengbao Co Ltd trades at ¥8.98, about 60% below its 52-week high of ¥22.42 and at the low of ¥8.94 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥2.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hengbao Co Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GRG Banking Equipment Co, Crane NXT, Co, Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc, XGD Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hengbao Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price ¥8.98, calculated fair value ¥2.32 (−74%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002104 calculated?
We run Hengbao Co Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥2.32 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hengbao Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was ¥8.98. Our model-based fair value is ¥2.32, about 74% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hengbao Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥2.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104) come from?
Earnings per share at Hengbao Co Ltd grew −9.8 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.8 %, EBIT margin −4.9 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hengbao Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
The market capitalisation of Hengbao Co Ltd is 6.4B CNY (≈ $955M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hengbao Co Ltd is 9.65 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
Earnings per share at Hengbao Co Ltd are ¥−0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
The dividend yield of Hengbao Co Ltd is 0.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
The net margin of Hengbao Co Ltd is −7.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hengbao Co Ltd is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hengbao Co Ltd is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
The operating margin of Hengbao Co Ltd is −20.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
Revenue at Hengbao Co Ltd is growing −20.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hengbao Co Ltd (002104)?
Earnings per share at Hengbao Co Ltd are growing +491% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hengbao Co Ltd (002104) hold?
Hengbao Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 617M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 11, 2026