Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd stock ¥10.52, price ¥8.44, upside +24.6%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥3.33 – ¥8.78 · fair‑value band ¥7.89 – ¥13.15 · the ¥8.44 price screens below the ¥10.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments.
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The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans, trade financing, deposit-taking activities, corporate wealth management services, custody services, and various types of corporate intermediary services, as well as corporate loans to corporations, government agencies, and financial institutions.
Its Personal Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit-taking activities, card business, personal wealth management services, and various types of personal intermediary services to individual customers.
The Treasury Operations segment engages in money market transactions, investment securities, and foreign exchange transaction activities.
In addition, the company is involved in the fund raising, fund sales, asset management, and other businesses; financial leasing; insurance businesses, such as life, health, and accident insurance, as well as reinsurance; debt-for-equity swaps; and issuance of wealth management products, wealth management advisory, and consulting services.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398) currently trades at ¥8.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥10.52, implying the stock looks roughly 20% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of ¥10.93 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥8.44 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥7.21, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥7.89 (bear) to ¥13.15 (bull), the price of ¥8.44 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd reported revenue of 1.5T CNY in FY2025 versus 658B CNY in FY2021, a compound +23.8%/yr. Reported net income was 369B CNY in FY2025, compounding +1.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.0T CNY (≈ $451B) Mega · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 4.41 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.9900 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 54.8% · Return on equity 8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 25%, 601398 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥7.89Fair Value ¥10.52Bull¥13.15
Price ¥8.44 · Upside +24.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.5690 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+133.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Per share before 2010divided by the spin-off factor 1.0176
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.5% vs 3.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.74% → 28%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 46 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+24.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.9% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)54.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)65.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601398
Frequently asked questions
Is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥10.52 versus a price of ¥8.44, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601398?
Our model-based fair value for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is ¥10.52 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥8.44.
What is the quality score of 601398?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥10.52 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥7.89, optimistic scenario ¥13.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥10.52, about +25% upside versus a price of ¥8.44 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥7.89, optimistic scenario ¥13.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 682B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd pay a dividend?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.79% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd it is ¥10.52 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ¥8.44. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 601398 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥8.44, fair value ¥10.52, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601398?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥8.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥10.52). For Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd the two are ¥2.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd worth?
The market values Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd at about 3.0T CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ¥8.44; our models calculate a fair value of ¥10.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601398?
Our models span a range for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd: cautious scenario ¥7.89, base ¥10.52, optimistic ¥13.15 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ¥8.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601398?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥10.52 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 6.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 0.8, P/S 4.4.
What is the PEG ratio of 601398?
The PEG ratio of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is 1.37 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
Balance-sheet figures for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.9%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601398 from its 52-week high?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd trades at ¥8.44, about 4% below its 52-week high of ¥8.78 and 25% above the low of ¥6.76 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥10.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ¥8.44, calculated fair value ¥10.52 (+25%), Quality Score 53/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601398 calculated?
We run Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥10.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd currently trades 20% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥8.44. Our model-based fair value is ¥10.52, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd right now?
Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398) come from?
Earnings per share at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd grew +3.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.8 %, EBIT margin −4.1 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
The market capitalisation of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is 3.0T CNY (≈ $451B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is 4.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
Earnings per share at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd are ¥0.9900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
The dividend yield of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is 3.8% (payout 32.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
The net margin of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is 54.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
The operating margin of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is 65.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
Revenue at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398)?
Earnings per share at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd are growing −0.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398) generate?
The free cash flow of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is 147B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd (601398) carry?
The net debt of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd is 6.6T CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 44.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026