Absa Group Ltd (ABG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Absa Group Ltd stock ZAR 228, price ZAR 221, upside +3.1%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R88.16 – R262.72 · fair‑value band R187.18 – R308.53 · the R221.34 price screens below the R228.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Absa Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides retail, business, corporate, investment banking, insurance, financial, and wealth management products and services in South Africa and internationally.
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The company offers life and non-life insurance products; residential property-related finance solutions; mortgages; vehicle and asset finance products and services; cash, debit, credit and prepaid cards; personal loans; corporate, relationship, and transactional banking services; mobile payments; and savings and investment products and services.
It also provides insurance and financial advisory, stockbroking and portfolio management, and trust administrative services.
In addition, the company offers trade and working capital, cash management, payment, and liquidity products and solutions; and investment banking, private equity and infrastructure investment, and commercial property financing services.
Further, it provides broker-dealer trading in debt and equity securities; and solicitation, syndication, selling, and arranging of equity and debt products, as well as financial, leasing, and management services.
The company was formerly known as Barclays Africa Group Limited and changed its name to Absa Group Limited in May 2018. Absa Group Limited was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Absa Group Ltd (ABG) currently trades at R221.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R228.25, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R267.04 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the R221.34 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R127.80, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R187.18 (bear) to R308.53 (bull), the price of R221.34 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Absa Group Ltd reported revenue of 211B ZAR in FY2025 versus 77.3B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +28.5%/yr. Reported net income was 23.3B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 187B ZAR Large · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 1.79 · EPS (TTM) R27.96 · Dividend yield 7.7% · Net margin 22.5% · Return on equity 13.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 3%, ABG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR187.18Fair Value R228.25BullR308.53
Price R221.34 · Upside +3.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (9.19 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+90.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.1% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.1% vs 5.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−6.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.2% a year for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 999 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+3.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)13.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)22.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)36.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)7.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.55× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Absa Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ABG.JSE
Frequently asked questions
Is Absa Group Ltd (ABG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R228.25 versus a price of R221.34, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ABG?
Our model-based fair value for Absa Group Ltd is R228.25 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R221.34.
What is the quality score of ABG?
Absa Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R228.25 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R187.18, optimistic scenario R308.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Absa Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R228.25, about +3% upside versus a price of R221.34 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R187.18, optimistic scenario R308.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
Absa Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 105B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Absa Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Absa Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 7.68% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Absa Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.2 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ABG use?
Our models discount Absa Group Ltd at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.35, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Absa Group Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Absa Group Ltd (ABG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Absa Group Ltd grew +28.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Absa Group Ltd (ABG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Absa Group Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 34.61 %: that much free cash flow Absa Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Absa Group Ltd it is R228.25 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of R221.34. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Absa Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, ABG trades below its calculated fair value: price R221.34, fair value R228.25, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ABG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R221.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R228.25). For Absa Group Ltd the two are R6.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Absa Group Ltd worth?
The market values Absa Group Ltd at about 187B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is R221.34; our models calculate a fair value of R228.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ABG?
Our models span a range for Absa Group Ltd: cautious scenario R187.18, base R228.25, optimistic R308.53 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price R221.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ABG?
Absa Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R228.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 38.0, P/B 1.1, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ABG?
The PEG ratio of Absa Group Ltd is 38.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Absa Group Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 13.9%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ABG from its 52-week high?
Absa Group Ltd trades at R221.34, about 16% below its 52-week high of R262.72 and 18% above the low of R187.46 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R228.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Absa Group Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Absa Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price R221.34, calculated fair value R228.25 (+3%), Quality Score 60/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ABG calculated?
We run Absa Group Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R228.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Absa Group Ltd currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was R221.34. Our model-based fair value is R228.25, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Absa Group Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Absa Group Ltd (ABG) come from?
Earnings per share at Absa Group Ltd grew +5.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.3 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Absa Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
The market capitalisation of Absa Group Ltd is 187B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Absa Group Ltd is 1.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
Earnings per share at Absa Group Ltd are R27.96 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
The dividend yield of Absa Group Ltd is 7.7% (payout 60.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
The net margin of Absa Group Ltd is 22.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Absa Group Ltd is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Absa Group Ltd is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
The operating margin of Absa Group Ltd is 36.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
Revenue at Absa Group Ltd is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Absa Group Ltd (ABG)?
Earnings per share at Absa Group Ltd are growing +10.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Absa Group Ltd (ABG) carry?
The net debt of Absa Group Ltd is 300B ZAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026