Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Actinogen Medical Ltd stock A$0.02, price A$0.05, that is 49.8% below the price, quality 30 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0160 – A$0.1825 · the A$0.0480 price screens above the A$0.0241 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Actinogen Medical in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Actinogen Medical is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Actinogen Medical Limited, a biotechnology company, develops therapies for neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases associated with dysregulated brain cortisol in Australia.
Show moreShow less
It develops Xanamem, an oral medication and inhibitor of the 11ß-HSD1 enzyme that achieves target engagement in the brain for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, major depressive disorder, fragile x syndrome, and other neurological diseases.
The company was formerly known as Actinogen Limited and changed its name to Actinogen Medical Limited in November 2015. Actinogen Medical Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW) currently trades at A$0.0480, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0241, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Actinogen Medical Ltd reported revenue of A$5.5M in FY2025 versus A$2.0M in FY2021, a compound +29.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$15.4M in FY2026.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 5 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −50%, ACW screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)n/aA$0.0100A$0.010050
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)n/aA$0.0100A$0.010050
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−44.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +43.0% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−253.4% (2020) → −272.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 559 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−49.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−52.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−121.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−37.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)96.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B7.42× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)12.51× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 21
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Actinogen Medical Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ACW
Frequently asked questions
Is Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0241 versus a price of A$0.0480, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ACW?
Our model-based fair value for Actinogen Medical Ltd is A$0.0241 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0480.
What is the quality score of ACW?
Actinogen Medical Ltd has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0241 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Actinogen Medical Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0241, about 50% lower versus a price of A$0.0480 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW)?
Actinogen Medical Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$12.7M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Actinogen Medical Ltd it is A$0.0241 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$0.0480. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Actinogen Medical Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ACW trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0480, fair value A$0.0241, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ACW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0480); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0241). For Actinogen Medical Ltd the two are A$0.0239 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Actinogen Medical Ltd worth?
The market values Actinogen Medical Ltd at about A$159M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0480; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0241 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Actinogen Medical Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −77.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ACW from its 52-week high?
Actinogen Medical Ltd trades at A$0.0480, about 31% below its 52-week high of A$0.0700 and 55% above the low of A$0.0310 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0241 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Actinogen Medical Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Actinogen Medical Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$0.0480, calculated fair value A$0.0241 (−50%), Quality Score 30/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ACW calculated?
We run Actinogen Medical Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0241 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Actinogen Medical Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.0480. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0241, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Actinogen Medical Ltd right now?
Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Actinogen Medical Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW)?
The market capitalisation of Actinogen Medical Ltd is A$159M (≈ $109M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Actinogen Medical Ltd is 12.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the return on equity of Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Actinogen Medical Ltd is −77.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Actinogen Medical Ltd is −75.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW)?
The operating margin of Actinogen Medical Ltd is −37.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW)?
Revenue at Actinogen Medical Ltd is growing +96.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW) generate?
The free cash flow of Actinogen Medical Ltd is −A$17.6M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Actinogen Medical Ltd (ACW) hold?
Actinogen Medical Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$12.0M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Actinogen Medical Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Actinogen Medical Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 8, 2026
