Actinogen Medical Limited (ACW) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · AU · Market cap A$164M
Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 47 days ago
Share price +2.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 62% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0255). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0160 – A$0.1825 · fair‑value band A$0.0170 – A$0.0255 · the A$0.0450 price screens above the A$0.0170 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
Analysis
Actinogen Medical Limited (ACW) currently trades at A$0.0450, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0170, implying the stock looks roughly 62.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$7.4M. Revenue declined 39.2% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$13.2M. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0170 (bear case) to A$0.0255 (bull case); at A$0.0450, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 137% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -62%, ACW screens richer than that median.
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Actinogen Medical Limited, a biotechnology company, develops therapies for neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases associated with dysregulated brain cortisol in Australia.
Full company description
Actinogen Medical Limited, a biotechnology company, develops therapies for neurological and neuropsychiatric diseases associated with dysregulated brain cortisol in Australia. It develops Xanamem, an oral medication and inhibitor of the 11ß-HSD1 enzyme that achieves target engagement in the brain for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, major depressive disorder, fragile x syndrome, and other neurological diseases. The company was formerly known as Actinogen Limited and changed its name to Actinogen Medical Limited in November 2015. Actinogen Medical Limited was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Actinogen Medical Limited reported revenue of A$5.5M in FY2025 versus A$2.0M in FY2021, a compound +29.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$14.7M in FY2025.
ACW screens 62% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 601 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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