American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of American Financial Group, Inc. stock $101, price $156, that is 35.3% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $86.35 – $156.35 · fair‑value band $72.74 – $126.40 · the $156.35 price screens above the $101.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It operates through Property and Casualty Insurance and Other segments.
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The company offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, other specialty transportation niches, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance.
It sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. American Financial Group, Inc. was formerly known as American Financial Group Holdings Inc and changed its name to American Financial Group, Inc. in July 1997.
The company was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
Stock analysis
American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) currently trades at $156.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $101.12, 35% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $112.10 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $156.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $33.61, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $72.74 (bear) to $126.40 (bull), the price of $156.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
American Financial Group, Inc. reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $842M in FY2025, compounding −19.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $13.0B Large · P/E ratio 13.7 · P/S ratio 1.61 · EPS (TTM) $11.44 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 11.8% · Return on equity 20.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −35%, AFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$72.74Fair Value $101.12Bull$126.40
Price $156.35 · Downside -35.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.73 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $15.6M and none bought.
SaleJohn I Von LehmanDirector1,279 shares at $143.84$183,971Sep 14, 2026
SaleBrian S. HertzmanSVP, CFO3× since Nov 7, 2025: 4,390 shares, avg. $139.25$611,310Sep 2, 2026
SaleCarl H Lindner IIICo-CEO, Director90,000 shares at $144.32$13.0MAug 26, 2026
SaleMark A WeissSr. VP & General Counsel2,813 shares at $144.76$407,210Aug 6, 2026
SaleMichelle A GillisSenior Vice President2,247 shares at $139.00$312,333Jun 24, 2026
SaleDavid Lawrence Thompson JrPresident of Subsidiary, Director11,370 shares at $135.05$1.5MJun 23, 2026
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 42 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.5% vs 7.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 13%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Specialized commercial property and casualty lines support steady premium growth as the main strength, yet thin evidence across most moat factors limits assessment of durable advantages.
Main risk: Changes in the judicial environment or social inflation could increase the frequency and severity of claims as well as loss reserves in the company's specialty casualty lines.
Bull case: The company could tighten underwriting standards and adjust policy terms in its specialty lines to limit exposure to evolving legal and social inflation risks.
Bear case: Persistent growth in litigation costs and regulatory pressures could materially inflate reserves and erode underwriting margins in key casualty segments over time.
American Financial Group keeps delivering steady premium growth through its focus on specialized commercial property and casualty lines. Yet our models currently see the stock as overvalued even after the recent dividend increase. Will the niche underwriting edge continue to support results or will broader market pressures eventually limit the upside?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "American Financial Group, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AFG
Frequently asked questions
Is American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $101.12 versus a price of $156.35, about 35% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AFG?
Our model-based fair value for American Financial Group, Inc. is $101.12 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $156.35.
What is the quality score of AFG?
American Financial Group, Inc. has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $101.12 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $72.74, optimistic scenario $126.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Financial Group, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $101.12, about 35% lower versus a price of $156.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $72.74, optimistic scenario $126.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
American Financial Group, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does American Financial Group, Inc. pay a dividend?
American Financial Group, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.25% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Financial Group, Inc. it is $101.12 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $156.35. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is American Financial Group, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, AFG trades above its calculated fair value: price $156.35, fair value $101.12, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AFG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($156.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($101.12). For American Financial Group, Inc. the two are $55.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Financial Group, Inc. worth?
The market values American Financial Group, Inc. at about $13.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $156.35; our models calculate a fair value of $101.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AFG?
Our models span a range for American Financial Group, Inc.: cautious scenario $72.74, base $101.12, optimistic $126.40 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $156.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AFG?
American Financial Group, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.7 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $101.12 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 12.2. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 2.7, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 9.2.
What is the PEG ratio of AFG?
The PEG ratio of American Financial Group, Inc. is 2.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
Balance-sheet figures for American Financial Group, Inc. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 20.4%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AFG from its 52-week high?
American Financial Group, Inc. trades at $156.35, at its 52-week high of $156.35 and 28% above the low of $122.57 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $101.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Financial Group, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Financial Group, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $156.35, calculated fair value $101.12 (−35%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AFG calculated?
We run American Financial Group, Inc. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $101.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. American Financial Group, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $156.35. Our model-based fair value is $101.12, about 35% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Financial Group, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($126.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) come from?
Earnings per share at American Financial Group, Inc. grew +7.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin +2.6 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of American Financial Group, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
The market capitalisation of American Financial Group, Inc. is $13.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American Financial Group, Inc. is 1.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
Earnings per share at American Financial Group, Inc. are $11.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
The dividend yield of American Financial Group, Inc. is 2.3% (payout 30.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
The net margin of American Financial Group, Inc. is 11.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of American Financial Group, Inc. is 20.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Financial Group, Inc. is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
The operating margin of American Financial Group, Inc. is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
Revenue at American Financial Group, Inc. is growing +5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG)?
Earnings per share at American Financial Group, Inc. are growing +44.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) generate?
The free cash flow of American Financial Group, Inc. is $1.4B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) carry?
The net debt of American Financial Group, Inc. is $93.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026