Agios Pharm (AGIO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Agios Pharm stock $14.04, price $29.41, that is 52.3% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.06 – $61.64 · fair‑value band $9.26 – $17.54 · the $29.41 price screens above the $14.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops medicines in the field of cellular metabolism in the United States.
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Its lead product includes PYRUKYND (mitapivat), an activator of wild-type and mutant pyruvate kinase (PK), enzymes used for the treatment of hemolytic anemias in adults with PK deficiency.
The company's PYRUKYND product is also used for the treatment of sickle cell disease that is in phase 3 clinical trial; for the treatment of PK deficiency in pediatric patients; and AQVESME for the treatment of adult patients with non-transfusion dependent and transfusion-dependent alpha- or beta-thalassemia.
In addition, it developed tebapivat, a PK activator for the treatment of lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome and sickle cell disease; AG-181, a phenylalanine hydroxylase stabilizer for the treatment of phenylketonuria (PKU); and AG-236, an siRNA in-licensed from Alnylam, targeting the transmembrane serine protease 6 (TMPRSS6) gene for the treatment of polycythemia vera.
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Agios Pharm (AGIO) currently trades at $29.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.04, 52% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $9.26 (bear) to $17.54 (bull), the price of $29.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Agios Pharm reported revenue of $54.0M in FY2025 versus $41.4K in FY2021, a compound +501.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$413M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B Small · P/S ratio 17.2 · EPS (TTM) $−7.01 · Return on equity −34.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −32.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −247% · Revenue (TTM) $98.3M · Revenue growth (YoY) +259%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −52%, AGIO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.26Fair Value $14.04Bull$17.54
Price $29.41 · Downside -52.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $1.4M and none bought.
SaleSarah GheuensChief Medical Officer8× since Nov 11, 2025: 56,243 shares, avg. $32.76$1.8MOct 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBrian GoffChief Executive Officer, Director3× since Dec 30, 2025: 55,826 shares, avg. $30.30$1.7MApr 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKrishnan ViswanadhanChief Corp Dev & Strategy2× since Mar 5, 2026: 5,918 shares, avg. $31.26$184,967Apr 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleTsveta MilanovaChief Commercial Officer4× since Dec 30, 2025: 11,934 shares, avg. $29.61$353,311Apr 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleCecilia JonesChief Financial Officer3× since Dec 30, 2025: 11,108 shares, avg. $30.09$334,266Apr 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJames William BurnsChief Legal Officer3× since Dec 30, 2025: 11,430 shares, avg. $30.13$344,390Apr 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleTheodore James Washburn Jr.Principal Accounting Officer2× since Mar 2, 2026: 7,495 shares, avg. $28.90$216,633Mar 3, 2026
SaleDavid ScaddenDirector200 shares at $43.84$8,768Nov 12, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+48.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−165.3% (2020) → −873.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside−52.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−31.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)259.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.47× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)17.79× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Agios Pharm Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AGIO
Frequently asked questions
Is Agios Pharm (AGIO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.04 versus a price of $29.41, about 52% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AGIO?
Our model-based fair value for Agios Pharm is $14.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.41.
What is the quality score of AGIO?
Agios Pharm has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.26, optimistic scenario $17.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Agios Pharm stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.04, about 52% lower versus a price of $29.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.26, optimistic scenario $17.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
Agios Pharm reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $98.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Agios Pharm it is $14.04 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $29.41. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Agios Pharm stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, AGIO trades above its calculated fair value: price $29.41, fair value $14.04, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AGIO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.04). For Agios Pharm the two are $15.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Agios Pharm worth?
The market values Agios Pharm at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $29.41; our models calculate a fair value of $14.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AGIO?
Our models span a range for Agios Pharm: cautious scenario $9.26, base $14.04, optimistic $17.54 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $29.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Agios Pharm (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −34.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AGIO from its 52-week high?
Agios Pharm trades at $29.41, about 35% below its 52-week high of $45.49 and 32% above the low of $22.34 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Agios Pharm?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Agios Pharm stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $29.41, calculated fair value $14.04 (−52%), Quality Score 40/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AGIO calculated?
We run Agios Pharm through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $14.04 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Agios Pharm itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $29.41. Our model-based fair value is $14.04, about 52% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Agios Pharm right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($9.26 to $17.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Agios Pharm
How large is the market capitalisation of Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
The market capitalisation of Agios Pharm is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Agios Pharm is 17.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
Earnings per share at Agios Pharm are $−7.01. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Agios Pharm is −34.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Agios Pharm is −32.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
The operating margin of Agios Pharm is −247% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Agios Pharm (AGIO)?
Revenue at Agios Pharm is growing +259% versus a year earlier (3y avg +56.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Agios Pharm (AGIO) generate?
The free cash flow of Agios Pharm is −$377M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Agios Pharm (AGIO) hold?
Agios Pharm holds more cash than debt, $27.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026
