Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc (AGIO) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.0B
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc
AGIO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −24.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 68% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($5.34 to $15.23). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.06 – $61.64 · fair‑value band $5.34 – $15.23 · the $32.27 price screens above the $10.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc (AGIO) currently trades at $32.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.35, implying the stock looks roughly 67.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $66.0M. Revenue grew 137.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -32.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $27.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.34 (bear case) to $15.23 (bull case); at $32.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -68%, AGIO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($13.44) versus Dividend Discount ($8.02). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops medicines in the field of cellular metabolism in the United States. Its lead product includes PYRUKYND (mitapivat), an activator of wild-type and mutant pyruvate kinase (PK), enzymes used for the treatment of hemolytic anemias in adults with PK deficiency.
Full company description
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, discovers and develops medicines in the field of cellular metabolism in the United States. Its lead product includes PYRUKYND (mitapivat), an activator of wild-type and mutant pyruvate kinase (PK), enzymes used for the treatment of hemolytic anemias in adults with PK deficiency. The company's PYRUKYND product is also used for the treatment of sickle cell disease that is in phase 3 clinical trial; for the treatment of PK deficiency in pediatric patients; and AQVESME for the treatment of adult patients with non-transfusion dependent and transfusion-dependent alpha- or beta-thalassemia. In addition, it developed tebapivat, a PK activator for the treatment of lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome and sickle cell disease; AG-181, a phenylalanine hydroxylase stabilizer for the treatment of phenylketonuria (PKU); and AG-236, an siRNA in-licensed from Alnylam, targeting the transmembrane serine protease 6 (TMPRSS6) gene for the treatment of polycythemia vera. Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc reported revenue of $54.0M in FY2025 versus $41.4K in FY2021, a compound +501.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$413M in FY2025.
AGIO screens 68% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AGIO Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Increase Year Over Year
- Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc (AGIO) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Mitapivat Revenue ...
- Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) Reports Q2 Loss, Beats Revenue Estimates
- Agios Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Provides Business Update
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 603 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.02 | ¥26.99 | -80% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
Compare Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Healthcare stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc (AGIO) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of AGIO?
What is the quality score of AGIO?
What is the revenue of Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc (AGIO)?
What is the net profit margin of AGIO?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.