The Allstate Corporation (ALL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The Allstate Corporation stock $291, price $267, upside +8.9%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Quality 70/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +8.2 %/yr in USD)
Solidly profitable · 19.0% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
1.6% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers(11/15)
Wide moat79/100
Broad data
Costs just 5.3 times its yearly profit.
Fair value $290.52 · Fairly valued (+8.9%)
Insiders sold $451,475 (6M)
Negative coverage
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩AI could disrupt policy distribution and auto demand🚩Progressive could erode Allstate's market share🚩State regulators and lawsuits could constrain claims handling
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $94.38 – $273.97 · fair‑value band $241.36 – $402.27 · the $266.72 price screens below the $290.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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The Allstate Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty, and other insurance products in the United States and Canada. It operates in four segments: Allstate Protection; Run-off Property-Liability; Protection Services; and Corporate and Other.
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The company offers private passenger auto, homeowners, other personal lines and commercial insurance through exclusive agents, independent agents, contact centers and online under the Allstate, National General, Direct Auto and Answer Financial brands.
It also provides consumer product protection plans, device and mobile data collection services, and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, roadside assistance, and protection plans; and insurance products, such as identity protection and restoration.
In addition, the company offers property and casualty insurance, as well as engages in company activities and certain non-insurance operations, including expenses associated with strategic initiatives.
Further, it offers automotive protection; vehicle service contracts, guaranteed asset protection, road hazard tires and wheels, and paintless dent repair protection; and roadside assistance, mobility data collection services, and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, identity theft protection, and remediation services.
The Allstate Corporation was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.
Stock analysis
The Allstate Corporation (ALL) currently trades at $266.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $290.52, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $290.52 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $266.72 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $55.04, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $241.36 (bear) to $402.27 (bull), the price of $266.72 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
The Allstate Corporation reported revenue of $66.5B in FY2025 versus $50.6B in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was $10.3B in FY2025, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $69.1B Large · P/E ratio 5.3 · P/S ratio 0.99 · EPS (TTM) $49.98 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 19.0% · Return on equity 46.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 79 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 9%, ALL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$241.36Fair Value $290.52Bull$402.27
Price $266.72 · Upside +8.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($38.92 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleThomas J WilsonChairman, President & CEO, Director9× since Nov 17, 2025: 151,263 shares, avg. $208.99$31.6MMar 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJesse E MertenPresPersonalProperty-Liability33,986 shares at $208.57$7.1MFeb 25, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSuren GuptaPresident,Enterprise Solutions6× since Nov 14, 2025: 48,400 shares, avg. $213.08$10.3MJan 7, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 22 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.6% vs 22.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.4%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.4% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Allstate draws moderate moat signals from scale and ROE in competitive property and casualty insurance, yet limited innovation and typical governance remain the main constraints.
Main risk: Generative AI tools for instant quotes and autonomous vehicles that reduce crashes could commoditise distribution channels and shrink the need for traditional auto insurance policies at Allstate.
Our models see Allstate as undervalued in the property and casualty space. Fitch upgraded its credit ratings last month on stronger capital and steady underwriting profits. Earnings expectations for the coming quarter are lower than a year ago though. Will the firmer balance sheet drive better results than peers facing similar risks, or will claims trends dominate?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Allstate Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALL
Frequently asked questions
Is The Allstate Corporation (ALL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $290.52 versus a price of $266.72, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALL?
Our model-based fair value for The Allstate Corporation is $290.52 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $266.72.
What is the quality score of ALL?
The Allstate Corporation has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $290.52 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $241.36, optimistic scenario $402.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Allstate Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $290.52, about +9% upside versus a price of $266.72 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $241.36, optimistic scenario $402.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
The Allstate Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $70.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does The Allstate Corporation pay a dividend?
The Allstate Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.56% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Allstate Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -12.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALL use?
Our models discount The Allstate Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Allstate Corporation that is -12.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Allstate Corporation (ALL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Allstate Corporation grew +8.2 % a year. The price currently implies -12.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Allstate Corporation (ALL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Allstate Corporation (-12.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.30 %: that much free cash flow The Allstate Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Allstate Corporation it is $290.52 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $266.72. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Allstate Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ALL trades below its calculated fair value: price $266.72, fair value $290.52, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($266.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($290.52). For The Allstate Corporation the two are $23.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Allstate Corporation worth?
The market values The Allstate Corporation at about $69.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $266.72; our models calculate a fair value of $290.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALL?
Our models span a range for The Allstate Corporation: cautious scenario $241.36, base $290.52, optimistic $402.27 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $266.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALL?
The Allstate Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $290.52 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 7.7 (reported for FY2025: 6.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 8.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 2.3, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
What is the PEG ratio of ALL?
The PEG ratio of The Allstate Corporation is 1.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Allstate Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 46.1%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALL from its 52-week high?
The Allstate Corporation trades at $266.72, about 3% below its 52-week high of $273.97 and 41% above the low of $189.52 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $290.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Allstate Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The People's Insurance Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Allstate Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $266.72, calculated fair value $290.52 (+9%), Quality Score 70/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALL calculated?
We run The Allstate Corporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $290.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. The Allstate Corporation currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $266.72. Our model-based fair value is $290.52, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Allstate Corporation right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of The Allstate Corporation (ALL) come from?
Earnings per share at The Allstate Corporation grew +18.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.4 %, EBIT margin +4.5 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The Allstate Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
The market capitalisation of The Allstate Corporation is $69.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Allstate Corporation is 0.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
Earnings per share at The Allstate Corporation are $49.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
The dividend yield of The Allstate Corporation is 1.6% (payout 9.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 8.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
The net margin of The Allstate Corporation is 19.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Allstate Corporation is 46.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Allstate Corporation is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
The operating margin of The Allstate Corporation is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
Revenue at The Allstate Corporation is growing +11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Allstate Corporation (ALL)?
Earnings per share at The Allstate Corporation are growing +61.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The Allstate Corporation (ALL) carry?
The net debt of The Allstate Corporation is $6.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026