Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd stock ZAR 129, price ZAR 164, that is 21.6% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R89.70 – R248.71 · fair‑value band R82.05 – R178.83 · the R164.17 price screens above the R128.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets specialty and branded pharmaceutical products in Africa, the Middle East, the Americas, Europe CIS, Australasia, and Asia. It operates through Commercial Pharmaceuticals and Manufacturing segments.
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The company offers injectables for therapeutic areas, such as anaesthetics, anticoagulants, antithrombotic agents, analgesics, and hormone replacement medicines under the Arixtra, Diprivan, Fraxiparine, Marcaine, Sustanon, and Xylocaine brands; over-the-counter medicines under the Emla, Maltofer, Ovestin, Solpadeine, and Xylocaine brands; and prescription products for anti-inflammatories, immunosuppressants, hypothyroidism, anti-gout, analgesics, and corticosteroids under the Eltroxin, Imuran, Lipitor, Lyrica, and Zyloric brands.
It also manufactures active pharmaceutical ingredients, finished dose forms, and heparins, as well as steriles, oral solid doses, liquids, semi-solids, and biologicals. The company exports its products.
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Limited was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in Durban, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN) currently trades at R164.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R128.78, 21.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R163.12 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the R164.17 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R23.69, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R82.05 (bear) to R178.83 (bull), the price of R164.17 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 34.9B ZAR in FY2026 versus 38.6B ZAR in FY2022, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was 2.6B ZAR in FY2026, compounding −20.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 72.8B ZAR Mid · P/S ratio 1.96 · EPS (TTM) R−2.00 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity −1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% · Operating margin 19.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −22%, APN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR82.05Fair Value R128.78BullR178.83
Price R164.17 · Downside -21.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−3.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Per share before 2008divided by the spin-off factor 1.0175
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10.7% vs −6.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.8% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (53 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 550 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside−21.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets2.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)19.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Is Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R128.78 versus a price of R164.17, about 22% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APN?
Our model-based fair value for Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd is R128.78 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R164.17.
What is the quality score of APN?
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R128.78 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R82.05, optimistic scenario R178.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R128.78, about 22% lower versus a price of R164.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R82.05, optimistic scenario R178.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 34.9B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.41% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +14.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.6 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of APN use?
Our models discount Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd that is +14.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd grew -1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +14.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (+14.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.49 %: that much free cash flow Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd it is R128.78 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of R164.17. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, APN trades above its calculated fair value: price R164.17, fair value R128.78, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R164.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R128.78). For Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd the two are R35.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd at about 72.8B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is R164.17; our models calculate a fair value of R128.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APN?
Our models span a range for Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R82.05, base R128.78, optimistic R178.83 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price R164.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of APN?
The PEG ratio of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd is 116.07 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity −1.1%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APN from its 52-week high?
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd trades at R164.17, at its 52-week high of R164.17 and 83% above the low of R89.70 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R128.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Galderma Group, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price R164.17, calculated fair value R128.78 (−22%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APN calculated?
We run Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R128.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was R164.17. Our model-based fair value is R128.78, about 22% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R82.05 to R178.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN) come from?
Earnings per share at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd grew −3.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.9 %, EBIT margin −4.1 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
The market capitalisation of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd is 72.8B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd is 1.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
Earnings per share at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd are R−2.00. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
The dividend yield of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd is 1.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
The net margin of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd is 7.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
The operating margin of Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd is 19.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
Revenue at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd is growing +1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN)?
Earnings per share at Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd are growing −38.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd (APN) hold?
Aspen Pharmacare Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 429M ZAR net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 1, 2026