Bayer AG (BAYN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bayer AG stock €55.92, price €56.22, that is 0.5% below the price, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €18.73 – €63.20 · fair‑value band €38.64 – €95.34 · the €56.22 price screens above the €55.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Bayer operates as a life science company in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Germany, Switzerland, North America, the United States, the Asia Pacific, China, Latin America, and Brazil. It operates through Pharmaceuticals, Consumer Health, and Crop Science segments.
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The Pharmaceuticals segment provides prescription products primarily for cardiology and women's health care; specialty therapeutics in the areas of oncology, hematology, and ophthalmology; and diagnostic imaging equipment and contrast agents, as well as cell and gene therapy.
The Consumer Health segment offers nonprescription over-the-counter medicines for self-medication and self-care; nutritional supplements; allergy, cough, and cold; dermatology; pain and cardiovascular risk prevention; and digestive health products.
The Crop Science segment offers chemical and biological crop protection products, improved plant traits, seeds, digital solutions, and pest and weed management products, as well as customer services for agriculture.
It also engages in the breeding, propagation, and production/processing of seeds, including seed dressing. The company distributes its products through wholesalers, pharmacies and pharmacy chains, supermarkets, online and other retailers, and hospitals, as well as directly to farmers.
Bayer was founded in 1863 and is based in Leverkusen, Germany.
Stock analysis
Bayer AG (BAYN) currently trades at €56.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €55.92, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 0.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €89.01 per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the €56.22 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €31.46, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €38.64 (bear) to €95.34 (bull), the price of €56.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Bayer AG NA reported revenue of €45.6B in FY2025 versus €44.1B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€3.6B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €55.2B Large · P/E ex one-offs 11.5 · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) €−1.47 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin −3.2% · Return on equity −4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 116% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −1%, BAYN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€38.64Fair Value €55.92Bull€95.34
Price €56.22 · Downside -0.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.27/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.1% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.0% (2020) → 15.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.4% a year for the price and −0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Bayer's main strength lies in pharmaceutical growth from Nubeqa and Kerendia with a raised outlook, while its main weakness remains negative free cash flow and ongoing crop science pressure.
Main risk: Patent expiries on products such as Xarelto and Eylea could allow generic and biosimilar rivals to capture market share and reduce revenues and margins in the pharmaceuticals division.
Bull case: Bayer could offset losses from older products by accelerating launches and label expansions of newer medicines such as Kerendia and pipeline assets to restore growth and margins.
Bear case: If generic competition and European pricing pressures intensify without sufficient new product contributions, the pharmaceuticals division could face sustained revenue declines and margin compression.
Bayer's pharmaceuticals division posted solid growth in the third quarter driven by products like Nubeqa and Kerendia, leading to a raised full-year outlook. At the same time the group still reports negative free cash flow and pressure from the crop science segment. Will pharma momentum overcome these cash flow constraints or will the other businesses continue to limit overall progress?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−0.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−3.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−3.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)9.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.19× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.13× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.22× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)26.5× · Pricier than median
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bayer AG NA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAYN
Frequently asked questions
Is Bayer AG (BAYN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €55.92 versus a price of €56.22, about 1% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BAYN?
Our model-based fair value for Bayer AG NA is €55.92 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €56.22.
What is the quality score of BAYN?
Bayer AG NA has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bayer AG (BAYN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €55.92 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €38.64, optimistic scenario €95.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bayer AG NA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €55.92, about 1% lower versus a price of €56.22 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €38.64, optimistic scenario €95.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
Bayer AG NA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €45.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Bayer AG NA pay a dividend?
Bayer AG NA currently shows a dividend yield of 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bayer AG (BAYN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bayer AG NA would have to grow free cash flow by +19.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BAYN use?
Our models discount Bayer AG NA at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bayer AG NA that is +19.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bayer AG (BAYN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bayer AG NA grew +1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +19.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bayer AG (BAYN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bayer AG NA (+19.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.77 %: that much free cash flow Bayer AG NA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bayer AG NA it is €55.92 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €56.22. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bayer AG NA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, BAYN trades above its calculated fair value: price €56.22, fair value €55.92, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAYN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€56.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€55.92). For Bayer AG NA the two are €0.3000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bayer AG NA worth?
The market values Bayer AG NA at about €55.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €56.22; our models calculate a fair value of €55.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAYN?
Our models span a range for Bayer AG NA: cautious scenario €38.64, base €55.92, optimistic €95.34 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €56.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of BAYN?
The PEG ratio of Bayer AG NA is 4.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bayer AG NA (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −5.7%, debt of 1.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAYN from its 52-week high?
Bayer AG NA trades at €56.22, at its 52-week high of €56.22 and 116% above the low of €25.98 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €55.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bayer AG NA?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bayer AG NA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €56.22, calculated fair value €55.92 (−1%), Quality Score 47/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAYN calculated?
We run Bayer AG NA through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €55.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Bayer AG NA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €56.22. Our model-based fair value is €55.92, about 1% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bayer AG NA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€38.64 to €95.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Bayer AG NA
How large is the market capitalisation of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
The market capitalisation of Bayer AG NA is €55.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Bayer AG (BAYN) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Bayer AG NA is 11.5 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss, median at FY-end 17.5 (5 FY)).
What is the P/S ratio of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bayer AG NA is 1.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
Earnings per share at Bayer AG NA are €−1.47. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
The dividend yield of Bayer AG NA is 0.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
The net margin of Bayer AG NA is −3.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bayer AG NA is −4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bayer AG NA is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bayer AG (BAYN)?
The operating margin of Bayer AG NA is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bayer AG (BAYN)?
Revenue at Bayer AG NA is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bayer AG (BAYN)?
Earnings per share at Bayer AG NA are growing +113% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bayer AG (BAYN) carry?
The net debt of Bayer AG NA is €30.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026