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Black Canyon Ltd (BCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Black Canyon Ltd stock A$0.03, price A$0.28, that is 87.6% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000141293

BC Black Canyon Ltd logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

Black Canyon Ltd

BCA · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 88% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 138.6% net margin (FY2025)
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +273.1 %/yr in AUD)
Moderate moat 49/100 · thin data
Fair value A$0.0340 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 27/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/7)
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.4900 A$0.0500 Fair Value A$0.0340 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0500 – A$0.4900 · fair‑value band A$0.0255 – A$0.0425 · the A$0.2750 price screens above the A$0.0340 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Black Canyon Limited, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company explores for manganese, copper, and cobalt targets.

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It holds interest in the Oakover West project covering an area of 750 square kilo meters and the Oakover East project located in Western Australia. In addition, the company owns interest in the Flanagan Bore Project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

Black Canyon Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Black Canyon Ltd (BCA) currently trades at A$0.2750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0340, 88% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0255 (bear) to A$0.0425 (bull), the price of A$0.2750 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Black Canyon Ltd reported revenue of A$273K in FY2025 versus A$6.8K in FY2021, a compound +151.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.8M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$44.6M (≈ $30.7M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin −549% · Revenue (TTM) A$175K · Revenue growth (YoY) +498% · Free cash flow −A$1.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −88%, BCA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0255 Fair Value A$0.0340 Bull A$0.0425
Price A$0.2750 · Downside -87.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0300 A$0.0400 A$0.0500 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0300 A$0.0400 A$0.0500 53

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 6
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 8
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 100
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 19
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 6
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+322.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+273.1%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+188.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−954.8% (2020) → −315.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

BCA screens overvalued: fair value 88% below the price. Compare with BHP Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 374 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −87.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −8.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 138.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 498.3% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.22× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 91
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 35

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹262.00 ₹334.17 +28% vs BCA
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.40 SAR 64.96 SAR +11% vs BCA
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹575.95 ₹624.91 +9% vs BCA
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥28.16 ¥30.32 +8% vs BCA
Boliden AB BOL kr 503.40 kr 464.45 −8% vs BCA
BHP Group BHP A$59.20 A$47.85 −19% vs BCA
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥32.67 ¥25.57 −22% vs BCA
Korea Zinc Company 010130 935,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −31% vs BCA
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.56 ¥6.82 −50% vs BCA
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥38.33 ¥4.44 −88% vs BCA

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Black Canyon Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Black Canyon Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BCA

Frequently asked questions

Is Black Canyon Ltd (BCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0340 versus a price of A$0.2750, about 88% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BCA?
Our model-based fair value for Black Canyon Ltd is A$0.0340 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2750.
What is the quality score of BCA?
Black Canyon Ltd has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0340 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0255, optimistic scenario A$0.0425. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Black Canyon Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0340, about 88% lower versus a price of A$0.2750 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0255, optimistic scenario A$0.0425. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
Black Canyon Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$175K (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Black Canyon Ltd it is A$0.0340 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.2750. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Black Canyon Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, BCA trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.2750, fair value A$0.0340, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2750); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0340). For Black Canyon Ltd the two are A$0.2410 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Black Canyon Ltd worth?
The market values Black Canyon Ltd at about A$44.6M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2750; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0340 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCA?
Our models span a range for Black Canyon Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0255, base A$0.0340, optimistic A$0.0425 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$0.2750). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Black Canyon Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −12.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BCA from its 52-week high?
Black Canyon Ltd trades at A$0.2750, about 33% below its 52-week high of A$0.4125 and 8% above the low of A$0.2550 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0340 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Black Canyon Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Black Canyon Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$0.2750, calculated fair value A$0.0340 (−88%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BCA calculated?
We run Black Canyon Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0340 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Black Canyon Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.2750. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0340, about 88% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Black Canyon Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0425). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Black Canyon Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
The market capitalisation of Black Canyon Ltd is A$44.6M (≈ $30.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
Earnings per share at Black Canyon Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Black Canyon Ltd is −12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Black Canyon Ltd is −13.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
The operating margin of Black Canyon Ltd is −549% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
Revenue at Black Canyon Ltd is growing +498% versus a year earlier (3y avg +323%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Black Canyon Ltd (BCA) generate?
The free cash flow of Black Canyon Ltd is −A$1.6M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Black Canyon Ltd (BCA) hold?
Black Canyon Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$7.8M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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