Black Canyon Limited (BCA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$58.4M
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price −16.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 89% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0425). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0500 – A$0.4900 · fair‑value band A$0.0340 – A$0.0425 · the A$0.3000 price screens above the A$0.0340 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Black Canyon Limited (BCA) currently trades at A$0.3000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0340, implying the stock looks roughly 88.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Revenue declined 51.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$2.2M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0340 (bear case) to A$0.0425 (bull case); at A$0.3000, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 305% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -89%, BCA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$0.1000) versus Multiples (A$0.0400). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (68).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Black Canyon Limited, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company explores for manganese, copper, and cobalt targets. It holds interest in the Oakover West project covering an area of 750 square kilo meters and the Oakover East project located in Western Australia.
Full company description
Black Canyon Limited, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company explores for manganese, copper, and cobalt targets. It holds interest in the Oakover West project covering an area of 750 square kilo meters and the Oakover East project located in Western Australia. In addition, the company owns interest in the Flanagan Bore Project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Black Canyon Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Black Canyon Limited reported revenue of A$273K in FY2025 versus A$6.8K in FY2021, a compound +151.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$379K in FY2025.
BCA screens 89% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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