Black Canyon Ltd (BCA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Black Canyon Ltd A$0.04, price A$0.31, upside -86.1%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0500 – A$0.4900 · the A$0.3050 price screens above the A$0.0425 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Black Canyon Limited, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company explores for manganese, copper, and cobalt targets. It holds interest in the Oakover West project covering an area of 750 square kilo meters and the Oakover East project located in Western Australia.
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Black Canyon Limited, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on mineral exploration activities in Australia. The company explores for manganese, copper, and cobalt targets. It holds interest in the Oakover West project covering an area of 750 square kilo meters and the Oakover East project located in Western Australia. In addition, the company owns interest in the Flanagan Bore Project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Black Canyon Limited was incorporated in 2011 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Black Canyon Ltd (BCA) currently trades at A$0.3050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0425, implying the stock looks roughly 617.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.1000 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the A$0.3050 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$0.0400, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Black Canyon Ltd reported revenue of A$273K in FY2025 versus A$6.8K in FY2021, a compound +151.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$379K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$54.4M (≈ $38.1M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.6300 · Net margin 139% · Return on equity −1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.6% · Revenue growth (YoY) −51.8% · Free cash flow −A$1.9M · Net cash A$2.2M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −86%, BCA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0425Fair Value A$0.0425Bull A$0.0425
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−46.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+175.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+269.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+126.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−954.8% (2020) → −315.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Below median
Fair Value upside−86% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)139% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−52% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Black Canyon Ltd (BCA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0425 versus a price of A$0.3050, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BCA?
Our model-based fair value for Black Canyon Ltd is A$0.0425 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.3050.
What is the quality score of BCA?
Black Canyon Ltd has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0425 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Black Canyon Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0425, about −86% upside versus a price of A$0.3050 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Black Canyon Ltd it is A$0.0425 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.3050. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Black Canyon Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BCA trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.3050, fair value A$0.0425, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BCA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.3050); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0425). For Black Canyon Ltd the two are A$0.2625 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Black Canyon Ltd worth?
The market values Black Canyon Ltd at about A$54.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.3050; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0425 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Black Canyon Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −1.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BCA from its 52-week high?
Black Canyon Ltd trades at A$0.3050, about 34% below its 52-week high of A$0.4650 and 11% above the low of A$0.2750 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0425 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Black Canyon Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Black Canyon Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.3050, calculated fair value A$0.0425 (−86%), Quality Score 33/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BCA calculated?
We run Black Canyon Ltd through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0425, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Black Canyon Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.3050. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0425, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Black Canyon Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0425). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Black Canyon Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
The market capitalisation of Black Canyon Ltd is A$54.4M (≈ $38.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
Earnings per share at Black Canyon Ltd are A$−0.6300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
The net margin of Black Canyon Ltd is 139% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Black Canyon Ltd is −1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Black Canyon Ltd is −14.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Black Canyon Ltd (BCA)?
Revenue at Black Canyon Ltd is growing −51.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +176%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Black Canyon Ltd (BCA) generate?
The free cash flow of Black Canyon Ltd is −A$1.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Black Canyon Ltd (BCA) hold?
Black Canyon Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$2.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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