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Biodesix Inc (BDSX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Biodesix Inc stock $8.24, price $10.02, that is 17.8% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

BI Biodesix Inc logo Thin data Nov 11, 2026

Biodesix Inc

BDSX · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 18% below what the stock costs today.

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +14.2 %/yr in USD)
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Fair value $8.24 · Overvalued
Quality 38/100
Loss-making · -25.7% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/7)
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$197.60 $4.40 Fair Value $8.24 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.40 – $197.60 · fair‑value band $6.18 – $10.30 · the $10.02 price screens above the $8.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.

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Company profile

Biodesix, Inc. operates as a diagnostic solutions company.

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The company offers blood-based lung tests, including Nodify XL2 and Nodify CDT tests markets as Nodify Lung Nodule Risk Assessment testing to assess the risk of lung cancer and help in identifying the appropriate treatment pathway and help physicians in reclassifying risk of malignancy in patients with suspicious lung nodules.

It also provides GeneStrat ddPCR, GeneStrat NGS, and VeriStrat tests markets as part of IQLung testing strategy, which are used in the diagnosis of lung cancer to measure the presence of mutations in the tumor and the state of the patient's immune system to guide treatment decisions.

In addition, the company provides diagnostic solutions, including translational research, initial biomarker discovery, assay design, development and validation, testing of clinical trial samples, regulatory, reimbursement, commercialization, and logistical support services for biopharmaceutical, life sciences, and diagnostic companies.

Further, it operates laboratories. The company was formerly known as Elston Technologies, Inc. and as changed to Biodesix, Inc. in 2006. Biodesix, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Louisville, Colorado.

Stock analysis

Biodesix Inc (BDSX) currently trades at $10.02, while our estimate is $8.24, 18% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $6.18 (bear) to $10.30 (bull), the price of $10.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Biodesix Inc reported revenue of $88.5M in FY2025 versus $54.5M in FY2021, a compound +12.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$35.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $115M Micro · P/S ratio 1.09 · EPS (TTM) $−2.69 · Net margin −25.7% · Return on equity −779% · Return on assets (EBIT) −43.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin −25.4% · Revenue (TTM) $105M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −18%, BDSX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $6.18 Fair Value $8.24 Bull $10.30
Price $10.02 · Downside -17.8%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 44
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 93
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 4
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 24
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 45
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 33
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 42
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • BuyJack W Schuler10% owner4× since Jan 22, 2026: 225,065 shares, avg. $13.85$3.1MAug 12, 2026
  • SaleKieran O'KaneChief Commercial Officer3× since Jan 16, 2026: 1,417 shares, avg. $10.69$15,153Feb 23, 2026
  • SaleGary Anthony PestanoChief Development Officer3× since Jan 16, 2026: 1,394 shares, avg. $10.74$14,978Feb 23, 2026
  • SaleScott HuttonPresident & CEO, Director3× since Jan 16, 2026: 6,019 shares, avg. $10.44$62,822Feb 23, 2026
  • SaleRobin Harper CowieCFO, Sec'y & Treasurer3× since Jan 16, 2026: 1,774 shares, avg. $10.57$18,751Feb 23, 2026
  • SaleChris VazquezChief Accounting Officer3× since Jan 16, 2026: 395 shares, avg. $11.12$4,391Feb 23, 2026

Plus 2 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−50.3% (2020) → −31.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

BDSX screens overvalued: fair value 18% below the price. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Diagnostics & Research · 149 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −17.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −40.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −25.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −25.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 10.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 1.09× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)10 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)52 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 7
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 32

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
WuXi AppTec Co 603259 ¥150.30 ¥165.32 +10% vs BDSX
Illumina, Inc ILMN $214.91 $234.44 +9% vs BDSX
IQVIA Holdings IQV $275.15 $299.58 +9% vs BDSX
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO $718.20 $686.04 −4% vs BDSX
Danaher Corporation DHR $236.11 $209.18 −11% vs BDSX
IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX $696.64 $496.48 −29% vs BDSX
Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD $1,751 $655.06 −63% vs BDSX
Agilent Technologies, Inc A $177.88 $64.53 −64% vs BDSX
Lonza Group LONN CHF 661.00 CHF 153.50 −77% vs BDSX
Waters Corporation WAT $475.52 $91.26 −81% vs BDSX

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Biodesix Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Biodesix Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BDSX

Frequently asked questions

Is Biodesix Inc (BDSX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $8.24 versus a price of $10.02, about 18% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BDSX?
Our estimate for Biodesix Inc is $8.24 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.02.
What is the quality score of BDSX?
Biodesix Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $8.24 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Cautious scenario $6.18, optimistic scenario $10.30. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Biodesix Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $8.24, about 18% lower versus a price of $10.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.18, optimistic scenario $10.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
Biodesix Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $105M (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Biodesix Inc it is $8.24 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $10.02.
Is Biodesix Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, BDSX trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.02, fair value $8.24, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BDSX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.24). For Biodesix Inc the two are $1.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Biodesix Inc worth?
The market values Biodesix Inc at about $115M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $10.02; our models calculate a fair value of $8.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BDSX?
Our models span a range for Biodesix Inc: cautious scenario $6.18, base $8.24, optimistic $10.30 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $10.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Biodesix Inc (as of Nov 11, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BDSX from its 52-week high?
Biodesix Inc trades at $10.02, about 67% below its 52-week high of $30.60 and 84% above the low of $5.46 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Biodesix Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, Danaher Corporation, WuXi AppTec Co, IDEXX Laboratories, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Biodesix Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $10.02, calculated fair value $8.24 (−18%), Quality Score 38/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Biodesix Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $10.02. Our estimate is $8.24, about 18% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Biodesix Inc right now?
Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Biodesix Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
The market capitalisation of Biodesix Inc is $115M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Biodesix Inc is 1.09 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
Earnings per share at Biodesix Inc are $−2.69. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
The net margin of Biodesix Inc is −25.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Biodesix Inc is −779% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Biodesix Inc is −43.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
The operating margin of Biodesix Inc is −25.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Biodesix Inc (BDSX)?
Revenue at Biodesix Inc is growing +10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Biodesix Inc (BDSX) generate?
The free cash flow of Biodesix Inc is −$23.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Biodesix Inc (BDSX) carry?
The net debt of Biodesix Inc is $53.9M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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