BHP Group Limited (BHP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BHP Group Limited stock £23.56, price £30.05, that is 21.6% below the price, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £13.47 – £34.96 · fair‑value band £15.84 – £30.68 · the £30.05 price screens above the £23.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments.
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It also engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal. In addition, the company is involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of nickel, as well as potash development activities.
Further, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. BHP Group Limited was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
BHP Group Limited (BHP) currently trades at £30.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £23.56, 21.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £23.35 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the £30.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £4.66, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £15.84 (bear) to £30.68 (bull), the price of £30.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
BHP Group Limited reported revenue of $58.8B in FY2026 versus $65.1B in FY2022, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was $9.8B in FY2026, compounding −24.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £153B Mega · P/E ratio 20.9 · P/S ratio 3.49 · EPS (TTM) £1.44 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 16.7% · Return on equity 24.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −22%, BHP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£15.84Fair Value £23.56Bull£30.68
Price £30.05 · Downside -21.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0540 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −2.8% / 10.2%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.45% → 43%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.5% a year for the price and −3.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Moderate scale benefits in iron ore and copper support operations, yet cyclical commodity exposure and limited differentiation remain the core constraints.
Main risk: A UK court has found BHP liable for the 2015 Fundão dam collapse in Brazil in a claim potentially worth tens of billions of pounds, which could lead to substantial payouts hitting cash flows and margins.
Bull case: BHP could resolve the dam litigation through settlements or successful appeals while accelerating its copper growth projects to offset any costs and strengthen its position in electrification metals.
Bear case: Large damages awards from the dam case could strain BHP's finances, divert resources from copper expansion and limit flexibility in its nickel review or other operations.
BHP kept its full-year copper guidance unchanged despite a 19 percent production drop in the first quarter from lower grades, maintenance and weather disruptions. Record iron ore output and progress on the Jansen potash project to 87 percent completion sit alongside plans for major copper expansions. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will near-term operational challenges limit what the growth pipeline can deliver?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 361 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−21.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)22.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)43.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)18.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BHP Group Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BHP
Frequently asked questions
Is BHP Group Limited (BHP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £23.56 versus a price of £30.05, about 22% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BHP?
Our model-based fair value for BHP Group Limited is £23.56 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £30.05.
What is the quality score of BHP?
BHP Group Limited has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £23.56 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £15.84, optimistic scenario £30.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BHP Group Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £23.56, about 22% lower versus a price of £30.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £15.84, optimistic scenario £30.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
BHP Group Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $58.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does BHP Group Limited pay a dividend?
BHP Group Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 4.27% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BHP Group Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.6 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BHP use?
Our models discount BHP Group Limited at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BHP Group Limited that is +4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BHP Group Limited (BHP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BHP Group Limited grew +0.6 % a year. The price currently implies +4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BHP Group Limited (BHP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BHP Group Limited (+4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.82 %: that much free cash flow BHP Group Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BHP Group Limited it is £23.56 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of £30.05. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BHP Group Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, BHP trades above its calculated fair value: price £30.05, fair value £23.56, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BHP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£30.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£23.56). For BHP Group Limited the two are £6.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BHP Group Limited worth?
The market values BHP Group Limited at about £153B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is £30.05; our models calculate a fair value of £23.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BHP?
Our models span a range for BHP Group Limited: cautious scenario £15.84, base £23.56, optimistic £30.68 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price £30.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BHP?
BHP Group Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.9 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £23.56 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 15.7 (reported 20.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), earnings ex one-offs: 11.7. Other multiples: P/B 4.2, P/S 4.6, EV/EBITDA 9.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
Balance-sheet figures for BHP Group Limited (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 24.0%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BHP from its 52-week high?
BHP Group Limited trades at £30.05, about 14% below its 52-week high of £34.96 and 55% above the low of £19.35 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £23.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BHP Group Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, Boliden AB, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BHP Group Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price £30.05, calculated fair value £23.56 (−22%), Quality Score 70/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BHP calculated?
We run BHP Group Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £23.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.2 % above its aggregate fair value. BHP Group Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was £30.05. Our model-based fair value is £23.56, about 22% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BHP Group Limited right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (70/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (£15.84 to £30.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of BHP Group Limited (BHP) come from?
Earnings per share at BHP Group Limited grew +10.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.1 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BHP Group Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
The market capitalisation of BHP Group Limited is £153B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BHP Group Limited is 3.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
Earnings per share at BHP Group Limited are £1.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
The dividend yield of BHP Group Limited is 4.3% (payout 67.0%, on adjusted earnings, reported 88.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
The net margin of BHP Group Limited is 16.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BHP Group Limited is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BHP Group Limited is 22.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
The operating margin of BHP Group Limited is 43.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
Revenue at BHP Group Limited is growing +18.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BHP Group Limited (BHP)?
Earnings per share at BHP Group Limited are growing −9.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BHP Group Limited (BHP) carry?
The net debt of BHP Group Limited is $7.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026