Contact Energy Ltd (CEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Contact Energy Ltd stock A$2.99, price A$7.04, that is 57.5% below the price, quality 34 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$5.94 – A$8.81 · fair‑value band A$2.13 – A$4.73 · the A$7.04 price screens above the A$2.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Contact Energy Limited generates and sells electricity and natural gas in New Zealand. It operates through Wholesale and Retail segments.
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The company involved in selling electricity to the wholesale electricity market, to commercial and industrial customers; and delivering electricity, natural gas, broadband, and other products and services to mass market customers. It also provides bottled gas products.
In addition, the company owns and operates hydro, geothermal, and thermal power stations. Contact Energy Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Wellington, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Contact Energy Ltd (CEN) currently trades at A$7.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.99, 58% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$5.76 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$7.04 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$2.22, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$2.13 (bear) to A$4.73 (bull), the price of A$7.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Contact Energy Ltd reported revenue of 3.2B NZD in FY2026 versus 2.4B NZD in FY2022, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was 423M NZD in FY2026, compounding +23.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$7.4B (≈ $5.1B) Mid · P/E ratio 20.1 · P/S ratio 2.83 · EPS (TTM) A$0.3500 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 13.0% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −58%, CEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$2.13Fair Value A$2.99BullA$4.73
Price A$7.04 · Downside -57.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1133 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$1.59A$2.89A$5.6376
Residual IncomeA$3.37A$3.64A$4.1676
Growth DCFA$1.75A$3.04A$5.5375
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$1.59A$2.89A$5.6376
Owner EarningsA$1.38A$2.60A$5.1672
5Y Revenue ExitA$1.96A$3.76A$6.4770
5Y EBITDA ExitA$2.61A$4.87A$7.9673
5Y P/E ExitA$1.83A$3.55A$5.6769
10Y Revenue ExitA$1.67A$3.23A$5.0065
10Y EBITDA ExitA$2.21A$3.98A$5.9867
10Y P/E ExitA$1.72A$3.09A$4.4863
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$2.14A$3.36A$4.0367
EPVA$2.54A$3.30A$3.9874
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$1.95A$2.34A$2.7969
DDM Multi-StageA$1.95A$2.64A$3.5667
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$4.26A$5.68A$7.1063
P/S MultipleA$4.02A$5.36A$6.7058
P/B MultipleA$4.48A$5.97A$7.4755
EV/EBITA$4.36A$6.39A$8.4165
EV/EBITDAA$3.95A$5.84A$7.7366
EV/RevenueA$2.48A$4.27A$6.0652
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$1.66A$2.22A$3.3254
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$1.75A$3.04A$5.5375
Rev-Margin DCFA$1.96A$3.83A$6.1970
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$3.37A$3.64A$4.1676
ROIC CompounderA$2.54A$3.30A$4.0272
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$3.03A$4.32A$5.6267
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.0% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.4% vs 7.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.1% a year for the price and +5.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Contact Energy's completed Manawa integration has lifted renewable output to 98 percent and cut unit costs through added hydro and geothermal capacity, yet the scale of further capital commitments risks straining returns.
Main risk: Large capital commitments for further renewables expansion could strain the company's returns and free cash flow, particularly with a payout ratio above 100 percent.
Contact Energy has completed the Manawa integration, pushing renewable output to 98 percent and driving unit generation costs lower through more hydro and geothermal. Retail volumes rose in August while free cash flow strengthened, even with a payout ratio above 100 percent. The firm now advances billions in further renewables and explores a 250 MW data centre load. Does the hydro portfolio diversity deliver lasting resilience, or will the scale of new capital commitments strain returns?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 197 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Below median
Fair Value upside−57.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)13.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)25.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−6.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Contact Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CEN
Frequently asked questions
Is Contact Energy Ltd (CEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.99 versus a price of A$7.04, about 58% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CEN?
Our model-based fair value for Contact Energy Ltd is A$2.99 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$7.04.
What is the quality score of CEN?
Contact Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.99 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.13, optimistic scenario A$4.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Contact Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.99, about 58% lower versus a price of A$7.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.13, optimistic scenario A$4.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
Contact Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.2B NZD (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Contact Energy Ltd pay a dividend?
Contact Energy Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.49% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Contact Energy Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.0342 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 17, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2016. The payout ratio is 63.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.10 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Contact Energy Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +17.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.6 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CEN use?
Our models discount Contact Energy Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Contact Energy Ltd that is +17.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Contact Energy Ltd (CEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Contact Energy Ltd grew +4.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +17.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Contact Energy Ltd (+17.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.20 %: that much free cash flow Contact Energy Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Contact Energy Ltd it is A$2.99 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of A$7.04. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Contact Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, CEN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$7.04, fair value A$2.99, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$7.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.99). For Contact Energy Ltd the two are A$4.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Contact Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Contact Energy Ltd at about A$7.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is A$7.04; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CEN?
Our models span a range for Contact Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.13, base A$2.99, optimistic A$4.73 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price A$7.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CEN?
Contact Energy Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 29.5, P/B 1.8, P/S 2.8, EV/EBITDA 11.2.
What is the PEG ratio of CEN?
The PEG ratio of Contact Energy Ltd is 29.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Contact Energy Ltd (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CEN from its 52-week high?
Contact Energy Ltd trades at A$7.04, about 18% below its 52-week high of A$8.54 and 5% above the low of A$6.70 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Contact Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Ørsted A/S, VERBUND AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Contact Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price A$7.04, calculated fair value A$2.99 (−58%), Quality Score 34/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CEN calculated?
We run Contact Energy Ltd through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$2.99 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Contact Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$7.04. Our model-based fair value is A$2.99, about 58% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Contact Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (A$2.13 to A$4.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN) come from?
Earnings per share at Contact Energy Ltd grew +7.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.6 %, EBIT margin +4.5 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Contact Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
The market capitalisation of Contact Energy Ltd is A$7.4B (≈ $5.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Contact Energy Ltd is 2.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
Earnings per share at Contact Energy Ltd are A$0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
The dividend yield of Contact Energy Ltd is 0.5% (payout 9.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
The net margin of Contact Energy Ltd is 13.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Contact Energy Ltd is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Contact Energy Ltd is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
The operating margin of Contact Energy Ltd is 25.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
Revenue at Contact Energy Ltd is growing −6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Contact Energy Ltd (CEN)?
Earnings per share at Contact Energy Ltd are growing −13.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Contact Energy Ltd (CEN) carry?
The net debt of Contact Energy Ltd is 2.3B NZD (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026