Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Core Natural Resources, Inc. stock $56.76, price $79.31, that is 28.4% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.43 – $132.18 · fair‑value band $33.18 – $99.00 · the $79.31 price screens above the $56.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Core Natural Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, sells, and exports metallurgical and thermal coals in the United States and internationally. It operates through the High CV Thermal; Metallurgical; Powder River Basin (PRB); and Core Marine Terminal segments.
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The High CV Thermal segment consists of Pennsylvania Mining Complex and the West Elk mine located in Colorado. The Metallurgical segment consists of Leer, Leer South, Beckley, Mountain Laurel, and Itmann coal mines in West Virginia.
The PRB segment consists of Black Thunder and Coal Creek surface mining complexes located in Wyoming. The Core Marine Terminal segment consists of coal export terminal operations in the Port of Baltimore.
The company was formerly known as CONSOL Energy Inc. and changed its name to Core Natural Resources, Inc. in January 2025. Core Natural Resources, Inc. was founded in 1864 and is headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) currently trades at $79.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.76, 28% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $58.50 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the $79.31 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $28.23, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $33.18 (bear) to $99.00 (bull), the price of $79.31 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Core Natural Resources, Inc. reported revenue of $4.2B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +34.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$153M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.0B Mid · P/E ratio 50.5 · P/S ratio 0.91 · EPS (TTM) $1.57 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −28%, CNR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$33.18Fair Value $56.76Bull$99.00
Price $79.31 · Downside -28.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.00 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$16.91$28.93$50.4678
Growth DCF$16.89$28.23$48.4376
Owner Earnings$23.39$40.74$71.8674
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$16.91$28.93$50.4678
Owner Earnings$23.39$40.74$71.8674
5Y Revenue Exit$9.57$13.19$17.7873
5Y EBITDA Exit$58.39$112.76$181.7373
10Y Revenue Exit$11.72$15.96$21.8867
10Y EBITDA Exit$44.80$90.11$160.7865
Multiples
EV/EBITDA$82.71$109.75$136.7867
EV/Revenue$5.56$7.25$8.9554
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$16.89$28.23$48.4376
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleRosemary L KleinSVP, CLO & Corp. Sec.15,000 shares at $106.87$1.6MMar 19, 2026
SaleJames A BrockExecutive Chair and CEO, Director40,760 shares at $101.15$4.1MMar 18, 2026
SaleJohn RothkaChief Accounting Officer2× since Mar 10, 2026: 4,800 shares, avg. $92.88$445,816Mar 17, 2026
SaleRichard A NavarreDirector6,000 shares at $91.70$550,200Mar 10, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+93.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.0% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−12.7% (2020) → −5.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+50.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +46.5% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Operational restarts at Leer South and steadier West Elk output support lower costs and higher volumes, yet weak durable advantage and negative profitability persist amid thermal coal decline.
Main risk: Long-term structural decline in thermal coal demand threatens to reduce volumes and margins across the thermal and metallurgical segments despite recent operational restarts.
Core Natural Resources has restarted longwall operations at its Leer South mine after more than a year of idling following a combustion event. Paired with steadier output at West Elk, this should bring lower costs and higher volumes across its thermal and metallurgical segments in 2026. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will these operational gains prove durable enough to counter the longer-term decline in thermal coal demand?
Compare Core Natural Resources, Inc. with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 82 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−28.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.1% · Below median
Return on assets−2.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)1.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Core Natural Resources, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CNR
Frequently asked questions
Is Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $56.76 versus a price of $79.31, about 28% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNR?
Our model-based fair value for Core Natural Resources, Inc. is $56.76 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $79.31.
What is the quality score of CNR?
Core Natural Resources, Inc. has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $56.76 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $33.18, optimistic scenario $99.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Core Natural Resources, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $56.76, about 28% lower versus a price of $79.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $33.18, optimistic scenario $99.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
Core Natural Resources, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Core Natural Resources, Inc. pay a dividend?
Core Natural Resources, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.50% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Core Natural Resources, Inc. pays a dividend of $0.4 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 25.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.09 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Core Natural Resources, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +50.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +36.5 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CNR use?
Our models discount Core Natural Resources, Inc. at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Core Natural Resources, Inc. that is +50.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Core Natural Resources, Inc. grew +36.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +50.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Core Natural Resources, Inc. (+50.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.53 %: that much free cash flow Core Natural Resources, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Core Natural Resources, Inc. it is $56.76 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $79.31. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF).
Is Core Natural Resources, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, CNR trades above its calculated fair value: price $79.31, fair value $56.76, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($79.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($56.76). For Core Natural Resources, Inc. the two are $22.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Core Natural Resources, Inc. worth?
The market values Core Natural Resources, Inc. at about $4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $79.31; our models calculate a fair value of $56.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNR?
Our models span a range for Core Natural Resources, Inc.: cautious scenario $33.18, base $56.76, optimistic $99.00 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $79.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CNR?
Core Natural Resources, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.5 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $56.76 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2024), reported earnings: 5.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CNR?
The PEG ratio of Core Natural Resources, Inc. is 0.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Core Natural Resources, Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 2.1%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CNR from its 52-week high?
Core Natural Resources, Inc. trades at $79.31, about 30% below its 52-week high of $113.00 and 5% above the low of $75.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $56.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Core Natural Resources, Inc.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Core Natural Resources, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $79.31, calculated fair value $56.76 (−28%), Quality Score 27/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNR calculated?
We run Core Natural Resources, Inc. through 9 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $56.76 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Core Natural Resources, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $79.31. Our model-based fair value is $56.76, about 28% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Core Natural Resources, Inc. right now?
Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($33.18 to $99.00). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) come from?
Earnings per share at Core Natural Resources, Inc. grew +11.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.8 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Core Natural Resources, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
The market capitalisation of Core Natural Resources, Inc. is $4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Core Natural Resources, Inc. is 0.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
Earnings per share at Core Natural Resources, Inc. are $1.57 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
The dividend yield of Core Natural Resources, Inc. is 0.5% (payout 25.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
The net margin of Core Natural Resources, Inc. is 1.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Core Natural Resources, Inc. is 2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Core Natural Resources, Inc. is 13.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
The operating margin of Core Natural Resources, Inc. is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
Revenue at Core Natural Resources, Inc. is growing +14.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)?
Earnings per share at Core Natural Resources, Inc. are growing −70.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) hold?
Core Natural Resources, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $78.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026