Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Bayan Resources Tbk IDR 4,698, price IDR 11,750, upside -60.0%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,057 IDR – 21,630 IDR · fair‑value band 3,468 IDR – 5,970 IDR · the 11,750 IDR price screens above the 4,698 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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PT Bayan Resources Tbk., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the open cut mining and sale of coal in Indonesia. It operates through Coal and Non-Coal segments. The company produces high calorific value bituminous coal, sub-bituminous low-sulphur, and low-ash coal products.
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PT Bayan Resources Tbk., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the open cut mining and sale of coal in Indonesia. It operates through Coal and Non-Coal segments. The company produces high calorific value bituminous coal, sub-bituminous low-sulphur, and low-ash coal products. It is also involved in the provision of mining contractor, coal transshipment, electric power supply, and trading services, as well as operation of oil palm plantation. PT Bayan Resources Tbk. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) currently trades at 11,750 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4,698 IDR, 60.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 5,408 IDR per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the 11,750 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 925.71 IDR, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3,468 IDR (bear) to 5,970 IDR (bull), the price of 11,750 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Bayan Resources Tbk reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was $758M in FY2025, compounding −11.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 392T IDR (≈ $21.9B) · P/E ratio 26.3 · P/S ratio 5.90 · EPS (TTM) 446.49 IDR · Net margin 22.4% · Return on equity 34.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 50.8% · Operating margin 32.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −60%, BYAN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 3,468 IDRFair Value 4,698 IDRBull 5,970 IDR
Price 11,750 IDR · Upside -60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (340.07 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +22.0% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.2% vs 38.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 29%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 85 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−60.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)34.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets19.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)23.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)32.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth25.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)26.3× · Pricier than median
P/B8.51× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.17× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF26.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.63× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 53
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4,698 IDR versus a price of 11,750 IDR, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BYAN?
Our model-based fair value for Bayan Resources Tbk is 4,698 IDR (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 11,750 IDR.
What is the quality score of BYAN?
Bayan Resources Tbk has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4,698 IDR (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3,468 IDR, optimistic scenario 5,970 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bayan Resources Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4,698 IDR, about −60% upside versus a price of 11,750 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3,468 IDR, optimistic scenario 5,970 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
Bayan Resources Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bayan Resources Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +18.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BYAN use?
Our models discount Bayan Resources Tbk at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bayan Resources Tbk that is +18.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bayan Resources Tbk grew +19.4 % a year. The price currently implies +18.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bayan Resources Tbk (+18.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.76 %: that much free cash flow Bayan Resources Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bayan Resources Tbk it is 4,698 IDR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 11,750 IDR. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bayan Resources Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, BYAN trades above its calculated fair value: price 11,750 IDR, fair value 4,698 IDR, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BYAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (11,750 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4,698 IDR). For Bayan Resources Tbk the two are 7,052 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bayan Resources Tbk worth?
The market values Bayan Resources Tbk at about 392T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 11,750 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 4,698 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BYAN?
Our models span a range for Bayan Resources Tbk: cautious scenario 3,468 IDR, base 4,698 IDR, optimistic 5,970 IDR per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 11,750 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BYAN?
Bayan Resources Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 4,698 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 8.5, P/S 6.2, EV/EBITDA 17.5.
What is the PEG ratio of BYAN?
The PEG ratio of Bayan Resources Tbk is 0.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bayan Resources Tbk (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 34.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BYAN from its 52-week high?
Bayan Resources Tbk trades at 11,750 IDR, about 34% below its 52-week high of 17,855 IDR and 26% above the low of 9,294 IDR (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4,698 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bayan Resources Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bayan Resources Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 11,750 IDR, calculated fair value 4,698 IDR (−60%), Quality Score 76/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BYAN calculated?
We run Bayan Resources Tbk through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 4,698 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Bayan Resources Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 11,750 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 4,698 IDR, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bayan Resources Tbk right now?
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (5,970 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Bayan Resources Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
The market capitalisation of Bayan Resources Tbk is 392T IDR (≈ $21.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bayan Resources Tbk is 5.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
Earnings per share at Bayan Resources Tbk are 446.49 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
The net margin of Bayan Resources Tbk is 22.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bayan Resources Tbk is 34.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bayan Resources Tbk is 50.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
The operating margin of Bayan Resources Tbk is 32.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
Revenue at Bayan Resources Tbk is growing +25.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
Earnings per share at Bayan Resources Tbk are growing +67.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) hold?
Bayan Resources Tbk holds more cash than debt, $575M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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