Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Discovery Holdings Ltd stock ZAR 147, price ZAR 274, that is 46.5% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R98.31 – R288.37 · fair‑value band R117.12 – R218.94 · the R274.42 price screens above the R146.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Discovery Limited provides various insurance products and services primarily in South Africa and the United Kingdom. It operates through SA Health, SA Life, SA Invest, SA Insure, SA Bank, UK Health, UK Life, and All Other segments.
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The company offers health, life, car, travel, business, and home insurance products; motor, building, household content, and portable possessions insurance products; private medical insurance products; and commercial short-term risk insurance products.
It also provides pension and provident fund solutions; managed care services; financial solutions; investment products; retail banking solutions, including deposits and loans and advances; and Vitality, which offers health and lifestyle benefits.
The company was formerly known as Discovery Holdings Limited and changed its name to Discovery Limited in December 2012. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Sandton, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY) currently trades at R274.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R146.85, 46.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R147.03 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the R274.42 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R39.76, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R117.12 (bear) to R218.94 (bull), the price of R274.42 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Discovery Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 91.9B ZAR in FY2026 versus 66.2B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was 13.2B ZAR in FY2026, compounding +24.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 186B ZAR Large · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 2.23 · EPS (TTM) R19.26 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 15.9% · Return on equity 17.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −46%, DSY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR117.12Fair Value R146.85BullR218.94
Price R274.42 · Downside -46.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (5.28 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.7% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+30.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.32.1% vs 10.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 20%
2026 sits 76% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−46.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.8% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)15.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)25.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.2× · Pricier than median
P/B2.25× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.23× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow60.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.6× · Pricier than median
PEG103.90× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)50· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)71· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)28· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R146.85 versus a price of R274.42, about 46% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DSY?
Our model-based fair value for Discovery Holdings Ltd is R146.85 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R274.42.
What is the quality score of DSY?
Discovery Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R146.85 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R117.12, optimistic scenario R218.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Discovery Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R146.85, about 46% lower versus a price of R274.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R117.12, optimistic scenario R218.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
Discovery Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 83.4B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Discovery Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Discovery Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.40% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Discovery Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +36.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DSY use?
Our models discount Discovery Holdings Ltd at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Discovery Holdings Ltd that is +36.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Discovery Holdings Ltd grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +36.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Discovery Holdings Ltd (+36.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.65 %: that much free cash flow Discovery Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Discovery Holdings Ltd it is R146.85 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of R274.42. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Discovery Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, DSY trades above its calculated fair value: price R274.42, fair value R146.85, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R274.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R146.85). For Discovery Holdings Ltd the two are R127.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Discovery Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Discovery Holdings Ltd at about 186B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is R274.42; our models calculate a fair value of R146.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DSY?
Our models span a range for Discovery Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R117.12, base R146.85, optimistic R218.94 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price R274.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DSY?
Discovery Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R146.85 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 15.3. Other multiples: PEG 103.9, P/B 2.3, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
What is the PEG ratio of DSY?
The PEG ratio of Discovery Holdings Ltd is 103.90 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 1, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Discovery Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 17.8%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DSY from its 52-week high?
Discovery Holdings Ltd trades at R274.42, about 5% below its 52-week high of R288.37 and 27% above the low of R216.54 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R146.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Discovery Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, China Life Insurance Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Discovery Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price R274.42, calculated fair value R146.85 (−46%), Quality Score 53/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DSY calculated?
We run Discovery Holdings Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R146.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Discovery Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was R274.42. Our model-based fair value is R146.85, about 46% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Discovery Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R218.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R117.12 to R218.94) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY) come from?
Earnings per share at Discovery Holdings Ltd grew +8.4 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin +2.7 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Discovery Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
The market capitalisation of Discovery Holdings Ltd is 186B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Discovery Holdings Ltd is 2.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
Earnings per share at Discovery Holdings Ltd are R19.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
The dividend yield of Discovery Holdings Ltd is 1.4% (payout 19.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
The net margin of Discovery Holdings Ltd is 15.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Discovery Holdings Ltd is 17.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Discovery Holdings Ltd is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
The operating margin of Discovery Holdings Ltd is 25.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
Revenue at Discovery Holdings Ltd is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY)?
Earnings per share at Discovery Holdings Ltd are growing +46.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Discovery Holdings Ltd (DSY) hold?
Discovery Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 1.8B ZAR net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 1, 2026