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Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Elevra Lithium Limited stock A$5.64, price A$3.69, upside +53.0%, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000421851

EL Elevra Lithium Limited logo Some data Nov 10, 2026

Elevra Lithium Limited

ELV · AU

Cheap (35% below fair value), but weak company and falling price: meets 1 of 3 rules.

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Fair value A$5.64 · Strongly undervalued 
Highly profitable · 21.3% net margin (TTM) 
Low debt 
Ranks above peers (11/12) 
Revenue last quarter +78% vs. a year ago. 
Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +399.3 %/yr in AUD) 
Moderate moat 58/100
Some data 
Quality 32/100 
Falling price (downtrend) 
Negative free cash flow 
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$57.00 A$2.10 Fair Value A$5.64 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$2.10 – A$57.00 · fair‑value band A$4.92 – A$8.54 · the A$3.69 price screens below the A$5.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Elevra Lithium Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the identification, acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral assets in Australia and Canada. The company explores for lithium, graphite, and gold deposits.

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Its flagship property includes the North American Lithium project that consists of 41 claims and one mining lease covering an area of approximately 1,493 hectares located in Quebec, Canada.

The company was formerly known as Sayona Mining Limited and changed its name to Elevra Lithium Limited in August 2025. Elevra Lithium Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.

Stock analysis

Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV) currently trades at A$3.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$5.64, implying the stock looks roughly 35% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$20.72 per share, and 8 of the 10 models we run sit above the A$3.69 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.87, and 2 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: A$4.92 (bear) to A$8.54 (bull), the price of A$3.69 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2022: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2022.

Elevra Lithium Limited reported revenue of $211M in FY2026 versus $387K in FY2022, a compound +383.2%/yr. Reported net income was $63.6M in FY2026, compounding +1.9%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap A$709M (≈ $482M) Small · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 2.78 · EPS (TTM) A$0.4000 · Net margin 30.1% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 44.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at 53%, ELV screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$4.92 Fair Value A$5.64 Bull A$8.54
Price A$3.69 · Upside +53.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.1490 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings A$4.65 A$6.75 A$10.65 73
Residual Income A$5.89 A$5.93 A$6.30 68
Growth-Adj P/E A$14.51 A$20.72 A$26.94 65
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings A$4.65 A$6.75 A$10.65 73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$3.27 A$22.82 A$32.03 61
Lynch FV A$11.79 A$16.84 A$21.90 59
PEG = 1.0 A$11.79 A$16.84 A$21.90 55
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$6.14 A$8.18 A$10.23 63
P/S Multiple A$1.80 A$2.40 A$2.99 58
P/B Multiple A$17.88 A$23.83 A$29.79 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$1.23 A$1.87 A$2.33 55
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$5.89 A$5.93 A$6.30 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$14.51 A$20.72 A$26.94 65

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 35
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 73
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 36
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 30
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 3
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 4
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2022: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2022.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+399.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Per share before 2021divided by the spin-off factor 1.0294
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−647% → −35%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 577 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Below median
Fair Value upside +53.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 21.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 44.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 77.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 9.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.46× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 2.39× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 1.1× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)34 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 35

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹259.68 ₹334.17 +29% vs ELV
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥26.44 ¥31.35 +19% vs ELV
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹554.85 ₹624.91 +13% vs ELV
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.55 SAR 64.57 SAR +10% vs ELV
Boliden AB BOL kr 500.40 kr 464.45 −7% vs ELV
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥31.17 ¥25.57 −18% vs ELV
BHP Group BHP A$58.86 A$48.03 −18% vs ELV
Korea Zinc Company 010130 866,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −25% vs ELV
CMOC Group 603993 ¥12.88 ¥6.82 −47% vs ELV
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥38.46 ¥4.44 −88% vs ELV

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Elevra Lithium Limited: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Elevra Lithium Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELV.AU

Frequently asked questions

Is Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$5.64 versus a price of A$3.69, about +53% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ELV?
Our model-based fair value for Elevra Lithium Limited is A$5.64 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.69.
What is the quality score of ELV?
Elevra Lithium Limited has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$5.64 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$4.92, optimistic scenario A$8.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Elevra Lithium Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$5.64, about +53% upside versus a price of A$3.69 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$4.92, optimistic scenario A$8.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
Elevra Lithium Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $202M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Elevra Lithium Limited it is A$5.64 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$3.69. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Elevra Lithium Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, ELV trades below its calculated fair value: price A$3.69, fair value A$5.64, a gap of about +53% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$5.64). For Elevra Lithium Limited the two are A$1.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Elevra Lithium Limited worth?
The market values Elevra Lithium Limited at about A$709M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$3.69; our models calculate a fair value of A$5.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELV?
Our models span a range for Elevra Lithium Limited: cautious scenario A$4.92, base A$5.64, optimistic A$8.54 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$3.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELV?
Elevra Lithium Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$5.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 1.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Elevra Lithium Limited (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELV from its 52-week high?
Elevra Lithium Limited trades at A$3.69, about 73% below its 52-week high of A$13.80 and 21% above the low of A$3.04 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$5.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Elevra Lithium Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Elevra Lithium Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$3.69, calculated fair value A$5.64 (+53%), Quality Score 32/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELV calculated?
We run Elevra Lithium Limited through 10 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$5.64 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Elevra Lithium Limited currently trades 35% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was A$3.69. Our model-based fair value is A$5.64, about +53% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Elevra Lithium Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (32/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$4.92). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Key figures of Elevra Lithium Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
The market capitalisation of Elevra Lithium Limited is A$709M (≈ $482M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Elevra Lithium Limited is 2.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
Earnings per share at Elevra Lithium Limited are A$0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
The net margin of Elevra Lithium Limited is 30.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Elevra Lithium Limited is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Elevra Lithium Limited is −10.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
The operating margin of Elevra Lithium Limited is 44.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV)?
Revenue at Elevra Lithium Limited is growing +77.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +399%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV) generate?
The free cash flow of Elevra Lithium Limited is −$99.8M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Elevra Lithium Limited (ELV) hold?
Elevra Lithium Limited holds more cash than debt, $256M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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