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Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd stock A$0.02, price A$0.04, that is 43.5% below the price, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000250250

ET Energy Transition Minerals Ltd logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

Energy Transition Minerals Ltd

ETM · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 43% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +28% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +37.1 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$0.0243 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 32/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/6)
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

A$0.1950 A$0.0190 Fair Value A$0.0243 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0190 – A$0.1950 · fair‑value band A$0.0243 – A$0.0279 · the A$0.0430 price screens above the A$0.0243 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Energy Transition Minerals Ltd engages in the mineral exploration and evaluation activities in Australia. It explores tantalum, niobium, tin, and lithium deposits, as well as rare earth elements. The company's flagship project is the Kvanefjeld project located in southern Greenland.

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The company was formerly known as Greenland Minerals Limited and changed its name to Energy Transition Minerals Ltd in November 2022. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM) currently trades at A$0.0430, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0243, 43% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0243 (bear) to A$0.0279 (bull), the price of A$0.0430 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Energy Transition Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$587K in FY2025 versus A$72.0K in FY2021, a compound +69.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$11.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$92.7M (≈ $64.2M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −76.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −80.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −3,526% · Revenue (TTM) A$587K · Revenue growth (YoY) +28.4% · Free cash flow −A$5.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 78% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −43%, ETM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0243 Fair Value A$0.0243 Bull A$0.0279
Price A$0.0430 · Downside -43.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0200 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0100 A$0.0200 50

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 90
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 75
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 35
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 30
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 12
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.7% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+86.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2,652.9% (2020) → −2,170.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ETM screens overvalued: fair value 43% below the price. Compare with BHP Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 376 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Below median
Fair Value upside −43.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −30.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 28.4% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.82× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 92
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 34

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹262.00 ₹334.17 +28% vs ETM
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.40 SAR 64.24 SAR +10% vs ETM
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥28.16 ¥30.98 +10% vs ETM
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹575.95 ₹624.91 +9% vs ETM
Boliden AB BOL kr 519.80 kr 464.45 −11% vs ETM
BHP Group BHP A$59.87 A$47.47 −21% vs ETM
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥32.67 ¥25.57 −22% vs ETM
Korea Zinc Company 010130 935,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −31% vs ETM
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.56 ¥6.82 −50% vs ETM
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥38.33 ¥4.44 −88% vs ETM

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Energy Transition Minerals Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Energy Transition Minerals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ETM

Frequently asked questions

Is Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0243 versus a price of A$0.0430, about 43% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ETM?
Our model-based fair value for Energy Transition Minerals Ltd is A$0.0243 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0430.
What is the quality score of ETM?
Energy Transition Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0243 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0243, optimistic scenario A$0.0279. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Energy Transition Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0243, about 43% lower versus a price of A$0.0430 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0243, optimistic scenario A$0.0279. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM)?
Energy Transition Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$587K (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Energy Transition Minerals Ltd it is A$0.0243 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of A$0.0430. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Energy Transition Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, ETM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0430, fair value A$0.0243, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ETM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0430); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0243). For Energy Transition Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.0187 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Energy Transition Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Energy Transition Minerals Ltd at about A$92.7M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0430; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0243 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ETM?
Our models span a range for Energy Transition Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0243, base A$0.0243, optimistic A$0.0279 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price A$0.0430). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −76.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ETM from its 52-week high?
Energy Transition Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.0430, about 78% below its 52-week high of A$0.1950 and 13% above the low of A$0.0380 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0243 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Energy Transition Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Energy Transition Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price A$0.0430, calculated fair value A$0.0243 (−43%), Quality Score 32/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ETM calculated?
We run Energy Transition Minerals Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0243 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Energy Transition Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was A$0.0430. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0243, about 43% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Energy Transition Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0279). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0243 to A$0.0279), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM)?
The market capitalisation of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd is A$92.7M (≈ $64.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM)?
Earnings per share at Energy Transition Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd is −76.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd is −80.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM)?
The operating margin of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd is −3,526% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM)?
Revenue at Energy Transition Minerals Ltd is growing +28.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM) generate?
The free cash flow of Energy Transition Minerals Ltd is −A$5.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Energy Transition Minerals Ltd (ETM) hold?
Energy Transition Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$31.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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