Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA stock NOK 114, price NOK 280, that is 59.2% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 127.97 – kr 286.40 · fair‑value band kr 85.50 – kr 142.51 · the kr 279.60 price screens above the kr 114.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Gjensidige Forsikring ASA, together with its subsidiaries, provides general insurance and pension products in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. It operates in four segments: General Insurance Private, General Insurance Commercial, General Insurance Sweden, and Pension.
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The company offers motor, property, travel, accident and health, general liability, natural perils, agriculture, medical treatment and expense, disability, income protection, workers' compensation, motor vehicle liability, marine, aviation, transport, fire and other damage to property, assistance, other non-life, and life insurance products, as well as non-proportional non-life reinsurance products.
It also provides defined contribution occupational pension schemes for businesses, including disability pension, spouse/cohabitant pension, and child's pension; and individual pension savings agreements.
The company sells its products to private individuals, commercial and agricultural customers, and private and commercial markets through various distribution channels comprising customer service centres, office channel, call center, Internet, partners, agents, and external brokers.
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA was founded in 1816 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.
Stock analysis
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF) currently trades at kr 279.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 114.01, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of kr 168.63 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the kr 279.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 27.54, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 85.50 (bear) to kr 142.51 (bull), the price of kr 279.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA reported revenue of 44.9B NOK in FY2025 versus 31.9B NOK in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was 6.6B NOK in FY2025, compounding −2.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 140B NOK (≈ $15.0B) Large · P/E ratio 20.2 · P/S ratio 2.97 · EPS (TTM) kr 13.83 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 15.4% · Return on equity 27.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −59%, GJF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 85.50Fair Value kr 114.01Bullkr 142.51
Price kr 279.60 · Downside -59.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+11.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.1% vs 4.6%, slowing
2025 sits 59% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Norway: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.8% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (18 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Gjensidige shows strength in consistent premium growth and disciplined underwriting in its Nordic P&C book, yet the absence of a clear durable moat leaves earnings exposed to investment volatility.
Main risk: AI agents might make it easier for customers to compare prices and switch insurers, squeezing margins in the Nordic P&C business.
Bull case: By deploying its own AI systems for claims and personalization, Gjensidige could lower costs and retain customers despite easier switching.
Bear case: If AI agents accelerate switching and price transparency, the company might face sustained margin pressure in its core Nordic insurance operations.
Gjensidige keeps posting solid premium growth in its Nordic property and casualty book while holding the line on underwriting. Rising rates, though, point to negative investment results that could offset much of that operating gain. Will the core insurance margin prove durable enough to carry earnings, or will portfolio returns require a shift in how the balance sheet is managed?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
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Is Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 114.01 versus a price of kr 279.60, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GJF?
Our model-based fair value for Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is kr 114.01 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 279.60.
What is the quality score of GJF?
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 114.01 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 85.50, optimistic scenario kr 142.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gjensidige Forsikring ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 114.01, about 59% lower versus a price of kr 279.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 85.50, optimistic scenario kr 142.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 47.1B NOK (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Gjensidige Forsikring ASA pay a dividend?
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA currently shows a dividend yield of 5.19% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gjensidige Forsikring ASA would have to grow free cash flow by +9.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GJF use?
Our models discount Gjensidige Forsikring ASA at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for Norway. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gjensidige Forsikring ASA that is +9.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gjensidige Forsikring ASA grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies +9.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (+9.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.48 %: that much free cash flow Gjensidige Forsikring ASA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gjensidige Forsikring ASA it is kr 114.01 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of kr 279.60. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gjensidige Forsikring ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, GJF trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 279.60, fair value kr 114.01, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GJF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 279.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 114.01). For Gjensidige Forsikring ASA the two are kr 165.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gjensidige Forsikring ASA worth?
The market values Gjensidige Forsikring ASA at about 140B NOK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is kr 279.60; our models calculate a fair value of kr 114.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GJF?
Our models span a range for Gjensidige Forsikring ASA: cautious scenario kr 85.50, base kr 114.01, optimistic kr 142.51 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price kr 279.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GJF?
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 114.01 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 18.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 4.9, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 13.6.
What is the PEG ratio of GJF?
The PEG ratio of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is 1.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 27.2%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GJF from its 52-week high?
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA trades at kr 279.60, about 2% below its 52-week high of kr 286.40 and 16% above the low of kr 241.00 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 114.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gjensidige Forsikring ASA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gjensidige Forsikring ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price kr 279.60, calculated fair value kr 114.01 (−59%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GJF calculated?
We run Gjensidige Forsikring ASA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 114.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Gjensidige Forsikring ASA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was kr 279.60. Our model-based fair value is kr 114.01, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gjensidige Forsikring ASA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 142.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF) come from?
Earnings per share at Gjensidige Forsikring ASA grew +2.2 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin −5.6 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
The market capitalisation of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is 140B NOK (≈ $15.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is 2.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
Earnings per share at Gjensidige Forsikring ASA are kr 13.83 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
The dividend yield of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is 5.2% (payout 105%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
The net margin of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is 15.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is 27.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
The operating margin of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is 24.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
Revenue at Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is growing −3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF)?
Earnings per share at Gjensidige Forsikring ASA are growing +30.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (GJF) carry?
The net debt of Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is 405M NOK (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026