Hoya Corp (HOCPY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hoya Corp stock $156, price $144, upside +8.9%, quality 86 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $80.15 – $189.15 · fair‑value band $109.32 – $206.52 · the $143.70 price screens below the $156.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
Follow Hoya in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Hoya is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
HOYA Corporation, a med-tech company, provides high-tech and medical products in the Japan, Asia, the Americas, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Life Care, and Information and Communications.
Show moreShow less
It offers life care products, including eyeglasses; contact lenses; medical endoscopes; intraocular lenses; laparoscopic surgical instruments; automatic endoscope cleaning equipment; and other medical related products, such as prosthetic ceramic fillers and metallic implants for orthopedics, brain surgery, and dentistry.
The company also operates Eyecity, a specialty retailer of contact lenses.
In addition, it provides information technology products, such as mask blanks and photomasks for manufacturing semiconductor chips; glass disks for hard disk drives; and imaging related products that comprise optical glasses/optical lenses, colored glass filters, and UV light resources.
Further, the company engages in research, development, manufacture, and sale of photomasks for manufacturing flat panel displays. HOYA Corporation was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Shinjuku, Japan.
Stock analysis
Hoya Corp (HOCPY) currently trades at $143.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $156.42, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.1%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $99.60 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $143.70 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $31.45, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $109.32 (bear) to $206.52 (bull), the price of $143.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 86/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hoya Corp reported revenue of ¥1.0T in FY2026 versus ¥670B in FY2022, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥268B in FY2026, compounding +13.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $47.8B Large · P/E ratio 28.1 · P/S ratio 7.51 · EPS (TTM) $5.11 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 26.7% · Return on equity 26.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 31.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 90 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 9%, HOCPY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$109.32Fair Value $156.42Bull$206.52
Price $143.70 · Upside +8.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.98 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$64.75$97.37$150.3879
Growth DCF$66.06$95.38$140.3378
Owner Earnings$61.09$91.51$140.9576
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$64.75$97.37$150.3879
Owner Earnings$61.09$91.51$140.9576
5Y Revenue Exit$53.82$77.93$108.3473
5Y EBITDA Exit$70.85$109.65$154.6975
5Y P/E Exit$78.26$123.46$170.7371
10Y Revenue Exit$55.83$79.15$109.8467
10Y EBITDA Exit$68.29$101.82$146.2168
10Y P/E Exit$73.16$111.70$158.8064
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$34.53$104.96$139.2765
Lynch FV$22.47$32.09$41.7261
PEG = 1.0$22.47$32.09$41.7257
EPV$52.07$59.60$66.3474
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$16.09$35.84$61.9065
DDM Multi-Stage$16.09$27.06$37.2466
Multiples
P/E Multiple$83.79$111.72$139.6563
P/S Multiple$49.92$66.56$83.2058
P/B Multiple$60.58$80.78$100.9755
EV/EBIT$81.85$105.76$129.6866
EV/EBITDA$81.45$105.24$129.0267
EV/Revenue$50.04$67.16$84.2754
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$8.53$12.93$16.1654
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$66.06$95.38$140.3378
Rev-Margin DCF$53.82$78.20$106.1473
Economic Profit
Residual Income$31.33$39.58$68.0373
ROIC Compounder$54.21$64.83$76.3372
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$68.40$97.71$127.0367
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.97/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +6.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.1% vs 13.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 30%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 56% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.7% a year for the price and +4.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (42 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Strong reported margins and returns point to pricing power in medical instruments while limited signals on other moat factors keep overall quality average.
Main risk: Reliance on a limited number of semiconductor foundries and HDD manufacturers such as Seagate could cause sharp revenue swings in the high-margin IT business if those clients reduce orders or qualify alternative suppliers.
Bull case: By expanding its customer base in nearline HDD substrates and capturing more AI-driven semiconductor demand for mask blanks the company could offset concentration risks and sustain IT growth.
Bear case: If key IT customers diversify suppliers or SSDs accelerate their displacement of HDDs the company could face sustained volume declines and margin pressure in its highest-margin segments.
Hoya is divesting its U.S. subsidiary MID Labs, maker of vitreoretinal surgical instruments, to Bausch + Lomb. The transaction forms part of a portfolio review that redirects resources toward higher-growth areas such as HDD glass substrates. Does the company strengthen its position by sharpening focus on core segments, or does it reduce its breadth in medical instruments?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Instruments & Supplies · 181 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score86 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+8.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)27.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)32.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.1× · Pricier than median
P/B7.39× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)7.70× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)32.2× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hoya Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOCPY
Frequently asked questions
Is Hoya Corp (HOCPY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $156.42 versus a price of $143.70, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HOCPY?
Our model-based fair value for Hoya Corp is $156.42 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $143.70.
What is the quality score of HOCPY?
Hoya Corp has a Quality Score of 86/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $156.42 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $109.32, optimistic scenario $206.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hoya Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $156.42, about +9% upside versus a price of $143.70 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $109.32, optimistic scenario $206.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
Hoya Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥984B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Hoya Corp pay a dividend?
Hoya Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 1.30% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hoya Corp (HOCPY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hoya Corp pays a dividend of $1.86 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2005. The payout ratio is 36.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.39 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hoya Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +13.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HOCPY use?
Our models discount Hoya Corp at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hoya Corp that is +13.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hoya Corp (HOCPY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hoya Corp grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +13.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hoya Corp (HOCPY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hoya Corp (+13.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.09 %: that much free cash flow Hoya Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hoya Corp it is $156.42 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $143.70. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hoya Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HOCPY trades below its calculated fair value: price $143.70, fair value $156.42, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOCPY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($143.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($156.42). For Hoya Corp the two are $12.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hoya Corp worth?
The market values Hoya Corp at about $47.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $143.70; our models calculate a fair value of $156.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOCPY?
Our models span a range for Hoya Corp: cautious scenario $109.32, base $156.42, optimistic $206.52 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $143.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HOCPY?
Hoya Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $156.42 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 30.7. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 7.4, P/S 7.7, EV/EBITDA 18.2.
What is the PEG ratio of HOCPY?
The PEG ratio of Hoya Corp is 2.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hoya Corp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 26.5%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 86/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOCPY from its 52-week high?
Hoya Corp trades at $143.70, about 24% below its 52-week high of $189.15 and 2% above the low of $141.45 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $156.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hoya Corp?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Intuitive Surgical, Inc, EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme, Becton, Dickinson and Company, Medline Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hoya Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $143.70, calculated fair value $156.42 (+9%), Quality Score 86/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOCPY calculated?
We run Hoya Corp through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $156.42 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Hoya Corp currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $143.70. Our model-based fair value is $156.42, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hoya Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($109.32 to $206.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hoya Corp (HOCPY) come from?
Earnings per share at Hoya Corp grew +12.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.6 %, EBIT margin −1.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hoya Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
The market capitalisation of Hoya Corp is $47.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hoya Corp is 7.51 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
Earnings per share at Hoya Corp are $5.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
The dividend yield of Hoya Corp is 1.3% (payout 36.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
The net margin of Hoya Corp is 26.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hoya Corp is 26.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hoya Corp is 31.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
The operating margin of Hoya Corp is 32.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
Revenue at Hoya Corp is growing +16.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hoya Corp (HOCPY)?
Earnings per share at Hoya Corp are growing +30.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hoya Corp (HOCPY) hold?
Hoya Corp holds more cash than debt, ¥534B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Hoya Corp in the live analysis
One click puts Hoya Corp on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 6, 2026