Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lunnon Metals Ltd stock A$0.23, price A$0.32, that is 26.7% below the price, quality 81 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.1450 – A$1.25 · fair‑value band A$0.1820 – A$0.3150 · the A$0.3200 price screens above the A$0.2345 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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Lunnon Metals Limited focuses on the exploration and development of nickel and gold in Australia.
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It holds 100% interest in the Kambalda Gold and Nickel project, which comprises the Foster and Baker area that consists of 19 contiguous mining leases and the Silver Lake and Fisher area, which includes 20 contiguous mining leases covering an area of approximately 47 square kilometers located within the Kambalda Nickel District, Eastern Goldfields, Western Australia.
The company was formerly known as ACH Nickel Pty Ltd and changed its name to Lunnon Metals Limited in February 2021. Lunnon Metals Limited was incorporated in 2014 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8) currently trades at A$0.3200, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2345, 27% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.7000 per share, and 20 of the 22 models we run sit above the A$0.3200 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.1200, and 2 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.1820 (bear) to A$0.3150 (bull), the price of A$0.3200 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lunnon Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$40.7M in FY2026 versus A$660 in FY2022, a compound +1,475.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$12.2M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$75.0M (≈ $51.6M) Micro · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 1.84 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0523 · Net margin 30.1% · Return on equity 29.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 43.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 85 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −27%, LM8 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.1820Fair Value A$0.2345BullA$0.3150
Price A$0.3200 · Downside -26.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0184 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFA$0.5200A$0.6700A$0.950077
Growth DCFA$0.5400A$0.6700A$0.880075
Owner EarningsA$0.4300A$0.5500A$0.770072
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$0.5200A$0.6700A$0.950077
Owner EarningsA$0.4300A$0.5500A$0.770072
5Y Revenue ExitA$0.3700A$0.4600A$0.580069
5Y EBITDA ExitA$0.5100A$0.7000A$0.960071
5Y P/E ExitA$0.6200A$0.8900A$1.2166
10Y Revenue ExitA$0.4200A$0.4900A$0.560064
10Y EBITDA ExitA$0.5100A$0.6400A$0.780065
10Y P/E ExitA$0.5800A$0.7500A$0.920061
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddA$0.3700A$0.4500A$0.500065
EPVA$0.5200A$0.5800A$0.640070
Multiples
P/E MultipleA$0.6900A$0.9200A$1.1463
P/S MultipleA$0.2000A$0.2700A$0.340058
P/B MultipleA$0.3100A$0.4200A$0.520055
EV/EBITA$0.6400A$0.8200A$0.990063
EV/EBITDAA$0.5800A$0.7400A$0.900064
EV/RevenueA$0.2900A$0.3700A$0.450052
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$0.0800A$0.1200A$0.150052
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$0.5400A$0.6700A$0.880075
Rev-Margin DCFA$0.3700A$0.4700A$0.590069
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$0.3000A$0.3500A$0.470068
ROIC CompounderA$0.5200A$0.6000A$0.670068
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EA$0.4900A$0.7000A$0.910065
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4,349.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1,657.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+301.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+181.2%
’19
’20
’21
’23
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6,561.5% (2021) → 28.7% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 577 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score81 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−26.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)29.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets21.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)30.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)43.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−98.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2345 versus a price of A$0.3200, about 27% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LM8?
Our model-based fair value for Lunnon Metals Ltd is A$0.2345 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.3200.
What is the quality score of LM8?
Lunnon Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.2345 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1820, optimistic scenario A$0.3150. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lunnon Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.2345, about 27% lower versus a price of A$0.3200 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1820, optimistic scenario A$0.3150. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
Lunnon Metals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$40.7M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lunnon Metals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -15.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +301.9 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LM8 use?
Our models discount Lunnon Metals Ltd at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lunnon Metals Ltd that is -15.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lunnon Metals Ltd grew +301.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -15.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lunnon Metals Ltd (-15.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.51 %: that much free cash flow Lunnon Metals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lunnon Metals Ltd it is A$0.2345 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$0.3200. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Lunnon Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, LM8 trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.3200, fair value A$0.2345, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LM8?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.3200); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.2345). For Lunnon Metals Ltd the two are A$0.0855 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lunnon Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Lunnon Metals Ltd at about A$75.0M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$0.3200; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.2345 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LM8?
Our models span a range for Lunnon Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1820, base A$0.2345, optimistic A$0.3150 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$0.3200). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LM8?
Lunnon Metals Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.2345 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lunnon Metals Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 29.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 81/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LM8 from its 52-week high?
Lunnon Metals Ltd trades at A$0.3200, about 36% below its 52-week high of A$0.5000 and 12% above the low of A$0.2850 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.2345 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lunnon Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lunnon Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$0.3200, calculated fair value A$0.2345 (−27%), Quality Score 81/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LM8 calculated?
We run Lunnon Metals Ltd through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.2345 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Lunnon Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was A$0.3200. Our model-based fair value is A$0.2345, about 27% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lunnon Metals Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Lunnon Metals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
The market capitalisation of Lunnon Metals Ltd is A$75.0M (≈ $51.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lunnon Metals Ltd is 1.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
Earnings per share at Lunnon Metals Ltd are A$0.0523 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
The net margin of Lunnon Metals Ltd is 30.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lunnon Metals Ltd is 29.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lunnon Metals Ltd is −15.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
The operating margin of Lunnon Metals Ltd is 43.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8)?
Revenue at Lunnon Metals Ltd is growing −98.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1,657%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Lunnon Metals Ltd (LM8) hold?
Lunnon Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$22.1M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Why does Lunnon Metals Ltd meet the fair value rule although the fair value shown is lower?
Peak profit dampened: A$0.6700 → A$0.2345. The latest annual profit is far above the years before, and such peaks rarely last. So we calculate cautiously with A$0.2345 instead of A$0.6700. If the profit stays high, we ease the caution year by year. As in the backtest, the fair value rule checks the value before: +109% against the price.
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Thin data
Nov 10, 2026