McKesson Corporation (MCK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of McKesson Corporation stock $823, price $1,072, that is 23.3% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 23% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 67/100
Healthy Growth(revenue 5y +11.1 %/yr in USD)
Generates free cash flow
0.3% dividend yield · Well covered
Positive coverage
Thin margins · 1.1% net margin (TTM)
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Insiders sold $25.4M (6M)
Some data
Fair value $822.74 · Overvalued (−23.3%)
Trails peers(4/12)
Narrow moat41/100
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Data breach via third-party apps in oncology and medical-surgical units🚩Drug pricing and reimbursement reforms🚩Concentration on major customer contracts🚩Manufacturer direct-to-patient models
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $189.66 – $1,072 · fair‑value band $607.10 – $1,038 · the $1,072 price screens above the $822.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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McKesson Corporation provides healthcare services in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: North American Pharmaceutical, Oncology & Multispecialty, Prescription Technology Solutions, and Medical-Surgical Solutions.
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The company distributes branded, generic, specialty, biosimilar and over-the-counter pharmaceutical drugs, and other healthcare-related products; delivers products to retail pharmacies, hospitals, long-term care centers, clinics, and institutions; and provides logistics and distribution services for manufacturers.
It also provides consulting, outsourcing, technological, and other services, as well as sells financial, operational, and clinical solutions to pharmacies; gene therapy with InspiroGene, practice consulting, and vaccine distribution services; and technology solutions, as well as research, insights, technologies, and services to improve cancer and specialty care.
In addition, the company helps in solving medication access, affordability, and adherence challenges for patients by working across healthcare to connect patients, pharmacies, providers, pharmacy benefit managers, health plans, and biopharma companies.
Further, it offers technology services, which includes electronic prior authorization, prescription price transparency, benefit insight, dispensing support services, patient enrollment, third-party logistics, and wholesale distribution support; medical-surgical supplies, laboratory equipment, pharmaceutical distribution, logistics, and other services to healthcare providers, including physician offices, surgery centers, and hospital reference labs, nursing homes, hospice and home health care agencies, government facilities ,and online marketplaces and retailers.
McKesson Corporation was founded in 1833 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Stock analysis
McKesson Corporation (MCK) currently trades at $1,072, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $822.74, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1,031 per share, and 4 of the 23 models we run sit above the $1,072 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $392.51, and 19 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $607.10 (bear) to $1,038 (bull), the price of $1,072 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
McKesson Corporation reported revenue of $403B in FY2026 versus $264B in FY2022, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was $4.8B in FY2026, compounding +43.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $133B Large · P/E ratio 27.7 · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) $38.77 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% · Operating margin 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at −23%, MCK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$607.10Fair Value $822.74Bull$1,038
Price $1,072 · Downside -23.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($21.39 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $25.4M and none bought.
SaleFrancisco FragaEVP, CIO and CTO2× since Oct 15, 2026: 1,400 shares, avg. $1,019$1.4MNov 4, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleNapoleon B Rutledge JRSVP, Controller & CAO4× since Nov 7, 2025: 901 shares, avg. $884.88$797,279Sep 8, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBradley E LermanDirector301 shares at $892.33$268,591Aug 10, 2026
SaleBrian S. TylerChief Executive Officer, Director3× since Jun 9, 2026: 21,855 shares, avg. $779.53$17.0MJul 7, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleThomas L RodgersEVP, Chief Strategy & BDO3× since Jan 5, 2026: 3,486 shares, avg. $759.37$2.6MJun 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleLeAnn B SmithEVP & Chief HR Officer2× since Feb 17, 2026: 2,000 shares, avg. $755.40$1.5MJun 1, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichele LauEVP and Chief Legal Officer3× since Feb 11, 2026: 6,578 shares, avg. $863.85$5.7MMay 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMaria MartinezDirector349 shares at $939.87$328,015Feb 19, 2026
Plus 31 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.8% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+40.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
From 2015 to 2026, about 72% of the growth in earnings per share came from share buybacks, and equity is negative: the buybacks are partly paid with debt. That cannot be repeated indefinitely.
Earnings per share, growth per year+39.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.44.5% vs 14.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 2%
2026 sits 53% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.5% a year for the price and +3.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Vast distribution scale and network position provide resilience in medical delivery, while thin innovation and low margins limit moat durability.
Main risk: Changes in US drug-pricing policies or 340B program rules could reduce margins in McKesson's specialty and oncology segments by pressuring reimbursement rates for administered drugs.
Bull case: McKesson could leverage its scale, automation investments and specialty networks to capture more value from complex therapies even if pricing pressures intensify.
Bear case: If major customer contracts are lost and direct manufacturer channels expand, McKesson's wholesale volumes and specialty margins could erode substantially over time.
McKesson confirmed a data breach last month that stole information from customers in its oncology and medical-surgical units through third-party apps. The company handles tens of thousands of deliveries daily across the healthcare system yet reports no ongoing threat or operational halt. Does its sheer scale and network position give enough resilience against these security exposures, or will they demand heavier spending to protect the core business?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 76 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−23.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets5.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)27.7× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.32× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow24.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA19.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.88× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)2· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)39· sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 54
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "McKesson Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MCK
Frequently asked questions
Is McKesson Corporation (MCK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $822.74 versus a price of $1,072, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MCK?
Our model-based fair value for McKesson Corporation is $822.74 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,072.
What is the quality score of MCK?
McKesson Corporation has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $822.74 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $607.10, optimistic scenario $1,038. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the McKesson Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $822.74, about 23% lower versus a price of $1,072 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $607.10, optimistic scenario $1,038. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
McKesson Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $411B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does McKesson Corporation pay a dividend?
McKesson Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 0.31% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, McKesson Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.1 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MCK use?
Our models discount McKesson Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For McKesson Corporation that is +9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has McKesson Corporation (MCK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at McKesson Corporation grew +11.1 % a year. The price currently implies +9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of McKesson Corporation (MCK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into McKesson Corporation (+9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.07 %: that much free cash flow McKesson Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For McKesson Corporation it is $822.74 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $1,072. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is McKesson Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MCK trades above its calculated fair value: price $1,072, fair value $822.74, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MCK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,072); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($822.74). For McKesson Corporation the two are $249.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is McKesson Corporation worth?
The market values McKesson Corporation at about $133B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $1,072; our models calculate a fair value of $822.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MCK?
Our models span a range for McKesson Corporation: cautious scenario $607.10, base $822.74, optimistic $1,038 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $1,072). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MCK?
McKesson Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $822.74 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 26.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 19.0.
What is the PEG ratio of MCK?
The PEG ratio of McKesson Corporation is 1.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
Balance-sheet figures for McKesson Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MCK from its 52-week high?
McKesson Corporation trades at $1,072, at its 52-week high of $1,072 and 48% above the low of $723.60 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $822.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to McKesson Corporation?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is McKesson Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $1,072, calculated fair value $822.74 (−23%), Quality Score 67/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MCK calculated?
We run McKesson Corporation through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $822.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. McKesson Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $1,072. Our model-based fair value is $822.74, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with McKesson Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1,038). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of McKesson Corporation (MCK) come from?
Earnings per share at McKesson Corporation grew +9.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.5 %, EBIT margin −3.5 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of McKesson Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
The market capitalisation of McKesson Corporation is $133B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of McKesson Corporation is 0.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
Earnings per share at McKesson Corporation are $38.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
The dividend yield of McKesson Corporation is 0.3% (payout 8.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
The net margin of McKesson Corporation is 1.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of McKesson Corporation is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
The operating margin of McKesson Corporation is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
Revenue at McKesson Corporation is growing +7.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at McKesson Corporation (MCK)?
Earnings per share at McKesson Corporation are growing −17.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does McKesson Corporation (MCK) carry?
The net debt of McKesson Corporation is $4.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026