MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc stock $28.22, price $32.75, that is 13.8% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.48 – $35.00 · fair‑value band $19.69 – $35.27 · the $32.75 price screens above the $28.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc., an insurance holding company, engages in the provision of insurance and financial services worldwide. It offers domestic non-life insurance; life insurance; international business; financial services; and provides risk-related services.
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The company was formerly known as Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. in April 2010. MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) currently trades at $32.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.22, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $38.39 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $32.75 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.91, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $19.69 (bear) to $35.27 (bull), the price of $32.75 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc reported revenue of ¥6.7T in FY2026 versus ¥5.0T in FY2022, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥511B in FY2026, compounding +18.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $43.4B Large · P/E ratio 8.3 · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) $3.94 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 16.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 69.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −14%, MSADF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$19.69Fair Value $28.22Bull$35.27
Price $32.75 · Downside -13.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.94 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (50 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: The business shows a moderate moat through average scale and cash metrics as its main strength, yet its key weak point remains the limited public evidence of durable advantages in P&C insurance.
Main risk: Japanese regulators have issued repeated orders and penalties to MS&AD units for corporate insurance price coordination and agent data leaks, which could force changes to pricing and distribution models and squeeze margins on commercial lines.
MS&AD posted first-quarter profit that already reaches more than three-quarters of its full-year guidance. The adjusted-profit outlook nevertheless points lower because gains from strategic equity sales are set to shrink. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the underlying insurance business generate enough momentum to close the gap, or will the reduction in those gains weigh more heavily?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSADF
Frequently asked questions
Is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.22 versus a price of $32.75, about 14% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MSADF?
Our model-based fair value for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is $28.22 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $32.75.
What is the quality score of MSADF?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $28.22 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.69, optimistic scenario $35.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $28.22, about 14% lower versus a price of $32.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $19.69, optimistic scenario $35.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥7.5T (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.40% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc pays a dividend of $0.788 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.4%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 30, 2027. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2008. The payout ratio is 34.8% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc it is $28.22 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $32.75. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, MSADF trades above its calculated fair value: price $32.75, fair value $28.22, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSADF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($32.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($28.22). For MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc the two are $4.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc worth?
The market values MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc at about $43.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $32.75; our models calculate a fair value of $28.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSADF?
Our models span a range for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $19.69, base $28.22, optimistic $35.27 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $32.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSADF?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $28.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 2.2.
What is the PEG ratio of MSADF?
The PEG ratio of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 2.47 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 11, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Balance-sheet figures for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 16.1%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSADF from its 52-week high?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc trades at $32.75, about 6% below its 52-week high of $35.00 and 65% above the low of $19.89 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $28.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $32.75, calculated fair value $28.22 (−14%), Quality Score 53/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSADF calculated?
We run MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $28.22 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $32.75. Our model-based fair value is $28.22, about 14% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) come from?
Earnings per share at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc grew +20.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin +8.2 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The market capitalisation of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is $43.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 0.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Earnings per share at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc are $3.94 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The dividend yield of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 2.4% (payout 20.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The net margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 7.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 69.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
The operating margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Revenue at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is growing +2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF)?
Earnings per share at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc are growing +49.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) generate?
The free cash flow of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc is ¥735B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc (MSADF) hold?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, ¥3.9T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 11, 2026