MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK stock $32.20, price $31.68, upside +1.6%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.60 – $33.82 · fair‑value band $25.36 – $47.17 · the $31.68 price screens below the $32.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc., an insurance holding company, engages in the provision of insurance and financial services worldwide. It offers domestic non-life insurance; life insurance; international business; financial services; and provides risk-related services.
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The company was formerly known as Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. in April 2010. MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY) currently trades at $31.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.20, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $37.62 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $31.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.91, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $25.36 (bear) to $47.17 (bull), the price of $31.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK reported revenue of ¥7.6T in FY2026 versus ¥5.0T in FY2022, a compound +11.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥835B in FY2026, compounding +33.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $47.2B Large · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 0.88 · EPS (TTM) $3.94 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 10.9% · Return on equity 16.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 2%, MSADY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$25.36Fair Value $32.20Bull$47.17
Price $31.68 · Upside +1.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.92 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+48.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.45.8% vs 17.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 15%
2026 sits 142% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (60 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: The planned domestic merger to streamline operations and cut costs forms the main strength, yet limited moat signals in a commoditized industry leave durability average at best.
Main risk: Ongoing Japanese Financial Services Agency improvement orders to subsidiaries after data breaches, customer data mishandling and price collusion could add compliance costs and operational restrictions to the core domestic non-life business.
Bull case: Successful completion of the domestic merger could strengthen governance and compliance structures, enabling the group to resolve regulatory issues faster and redirect resources toward overseas specialty growth and AI-enhanced services.
Bear case: Persistent or escalated regulatory actions could constrain domestic underwriting flexibility, raise ongoing compliance expenses and slow the streamlining benefits expected from the merger in the core Japanese market.
MS&AD is preparing to merge its two main domestic insurers next spring to streamline operations and reduce costs in its core non-life business. This runs alongside ongoing share repurchases and efforts to grow reinsurance and overseas specialty lines. Will the domestic merger deliver steadier underlying profits than the group can achieve through further international expansion, or will the overseas push matter more?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 100 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSADY
Frequently asked questions
Is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.20 versus a price of $31.68, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of MSADY?
Our model-based fair value for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK is $32.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.68.
What is the quality score of MSADY?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $32.20 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.36, optimistic scenario $47.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $32.20, about +2% upside versus a price of $31.68 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $25.36, optimistic scenario $47.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥7.5T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK pay a dividend?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK currently shows a dividend yield of 2.49% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK pays a dividend of $0.79 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2008. The payout ratio is 21.3% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK it is $32.20 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $31.68. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MSADY trades below its calculated fair value: price $31.68, fair value $32.20, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSADY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($32.20). For MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK the two are $0.5200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK worth?
The market values MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK at about $47.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $31.68; our models calculate a fair value of $32.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSADY?
Our models span a range for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK: cautious scenario $25.36, base $32.20, optimistic $47.17 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $31.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSADY?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $32.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 1.6, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 2.6.
What is the PEG ratio of MSADY?
The PEG ratio of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK is 2.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
Balance-sheet figures for MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 16.1%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSADY from its 52-week high?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK trades at $31.68, about 6% below its 52-week high of $33.82 and 58% above the low of $20.04 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $32.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $31.68, calculated fair value $32.20 (+2%), Quality Score 62/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSADY calculated?
We run MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $32.20 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK currently trades 2% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $31.68. Our model-based fair value is $32.20, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($25.36 to $47.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY) come from?
Earnings per share at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK grew +15.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.2 %, EBIT margin +10.1 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK
How large is the market capitalisation of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
The market capitalisation of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK is $47.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK is 0.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
Earnings per share at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK are $3.94 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
The dividend yield of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK is 2.5% (payout 20.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
The net margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK is 10.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
The operating margin of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
Revenue at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK is growing +2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY)?
Earnings per share at MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK are growing +49.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY) generate?
The free cash flow of MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK is ¥774B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK (MSADY) hold?
MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings PK holds more cash than debt, ¥3.9T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026