National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of National Australia Bank Ltd stock A$27.45, price A$38.96, that is 29.5% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$21.11 – A$48.06 · fair‑value band A$18.91 – A$34.32 · the A$38.96 price screens above the A$27.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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National Australia Bank Limited provides financial services to individuals and businesses in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally.
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The company operates through Business and Private Banking; Personal Banking; Corporate and Institutional Banking; New Zealand Banking; and Corporate Functions and Other segments.
It accepts transaction accounts, savings accounts, debit cards, and term deposits; and specialized accounts, such as foreign currency, business interest, cash maximiser, farm management, community free saver, statutory trust, and project bank accounts, as well as farm management deposits.
In addition, the company provides home loans, personal loans, and business loans; vehicle and equipment finance; and trade and invoice finance, as well as business overdrafts and bank guarantees.
Further, it offers insurance products consisting of home and content, landlord, travel, car, caravan and trailer, life, and business insurance products; and self-managed super funds, cash management, and financial advice services.
Additionally, the company provides investment products; credit, debit, and business cards; payments and merchant services; online and internet banking services; small business services; international and foreign exchange solutions; and industry-specific banking services.
The company was founded in 1834 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) currently trades at A$38.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$27.45, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$26.20 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$38.96 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$12.54, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$18.91 (bear) to A$34.32 (bull), the price of A$38.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
National Australia Bank Ltd reported revenue of A$60.2B in FY2025 versus A$20.9B in FY2021, a compound +30.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$6.8B in FY2025, compounding +1.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$120B (≈ $82.6B) Large · P/E ratio 19.5 · P/S ratio 5.75 · EPS (TTM) A$2.00 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 29.3% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −30%, NAB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$18.91Fair Value A$27.45BullA$34.32
Price A$38.96 · Downside -29.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.3000 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.4% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.3% vs −0.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−32.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.2% a year for the price and −34.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: The bank draws strength from the scale of a large diversified lender but shows only moderate differentiation and carries high leverage typical of the sector.
Main risk: CBA and Westpac could erode NAB's leading share in business banking by growing lending faster and using price competition, hitting margins and customer acquisition in that segment.
Bull case: NAB could defend and expand its business banking position through deeper digital tools and relationships while using AI to cut costs and improve compliance efficiency.
Bear case: If rivals capture more business banking share and regulatory scrutiny intensifies, NAB might face sustained margin pressure and higher operating costs that limit its ability to invest in growth areas.
National Australia Bank is cutting up to 2500 roles and reducing its use of consultants to simplify its operating model. The moves target corporate functions and aim to reduce duplication while freeing capacity for business banking, deposit growth and proprietary home lending in a slower credit environment. The bank will book a roughly 300 million Australian dollar restructuring charge next fiscal year. Will the resulting productivity lift outweigh the risks of disrupted execution or service levels?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 46 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.9% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)29.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)50.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.90× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)5.75× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow16.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA32.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.34× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)31· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)40· sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 40
DIVIDEND (yield)87· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "National Australia Bank Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NAB
Frequently asked questions
Is National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$27.45 versus a price of A$38.96, about 30% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NAB?
Our model-based fair value for National Australia Bank Ltd is A$27.45 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$38.96.
What is the quality score of NAB?
National Australia Bank Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$27.45 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$18.91, optimistic scenario A$34.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the National Australia Bank Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$27.45, about 30% lower versus a price of A$38.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$18.91, optimistic scenario A$34.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
National Australia Bank Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$20.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does National Australia Bank Ltd pay a dividend?
National Australia Bank Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, National Australia Bank Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +27.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.0 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NAB use?
Our models discount National Australia Bank Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.71, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For National Australia Bank Ltd that is +27.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at National Australia Bank Ltd grew +18.0 % a year. The price currently implies +27.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into National Australia Bank Ltd (+27.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.93 %: that much free cash flow National Australia Bank Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For National Australia Bank Ltd it is A$27.45 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$38.96. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is National Australia Bank Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, NAB trades above its calculated fair value: price A$38.96, fair value A$27.45, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NAB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$38.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$27.45). For National Australia Bank Ltd the two are A$11.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is National Australia Bank Ltd worth?
The market values National Australia Bank Ltd at about A$120B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$38.96; our models calculate a fair value of A$27.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NAB?
Our models span a range for National Australia Bank Ltd: cautious scenario A$18.91, base A$27.45, optimistic A$34.32 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$38.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NAB?
National Australia Bank Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$27.45 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 17.4. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 1.9, P/S 5.7, EV/EBITDA 32.8.
What is the PEG ratio of NAB?
The PEG ratio of National Australia Bank Ltd is 2.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
Balance-sheet figures for National Australia Bank Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 9.9%, debt of 3.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NAB from its 52-week high?
National Australia Bank Ltd trades at A$38.96, about 19% below its 52-week high of A$48.06 and 9% above the low of A$35.68 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$27.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to National Australia Bank Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is National Australia Bank Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$38.96, calculated fair value A$27.45 (−30%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NAB calculated?
We run National Australia Bank Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$27.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. National Australia Bank Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was A$38.96. Our model-based fair value is A$27.45, about 30% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with National Australia Bank Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$34.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$18.91 to A$34.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) come from?
Earnings per share at National Australia Bank Ltd grew +3.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.6 %, EBIT margin −2.7 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of National Australia Bank Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
The market capitalisation of National Australia Bank Ltd is A$120B (≈ $82.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of National Australia Bank Ltd is 5.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
Earnings per share at National Australia Bank Ltd are A$2.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
The dividend yield of National Australia Bank Ltd is 4.4% (payout 85.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
The net margin of National Australia Bank Ltd is 29.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of National Australia Bank Ltd is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of National Australia Bank Ltd is 0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
The operating margin of National Australia Bank Ltd is 50.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
Revenue at National Australia Bank Ltd is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB)?
Earnings per share at National Australia Bank Ltd are growing +19.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) carry?
The net debt of National Australia Bank Ltd is A$290B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 40.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026