National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · AU · Market cap A$120B
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +8.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$35.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$19.98 – A$48.06 · fair‑value band A$21.53 – A$35.88 · the A$42.70 price screens above the A$28.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
National Australia Bank Limited (NAB) currently trades at A$42.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$28.70, implying the stock looks roughly 32.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, National Australia Bank Limited generated revenue of A$20.6B at a net margin of 29.7%. Revenue grew 8.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. Net debt stands at A$290B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$21.53 (bear case) to A$35.88 (bull case); at A$42.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -33%, NAB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$37.53) versus Earnings-Based (A$9.82). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
National Australia Bank Limited provides financial services to individuals and businesses in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Business and Private Banking; Personal Banking; Corporate and Institutional Banking; New Zealand Banking; and Corporate Functions and Other segments.
Full company description
National Australia Bank Limited provides financial services to individuals and businesses in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Business and Private Banking; Personal Banking; Corporate and Institutional Banking; New Zealand Banking; and Corporate Functions and Other segments. It accepts transaction accounts, savings accounts, debit cards, and term deposits; and specialized accounts, such as foreign currency, business interest, cash maximiser, farm management, community free saver, statutory trust, and project bank accounts, as well as farm management deposits. In addition, the company provides home loans, personal loans, and business loans; vehicle and equipment finance; and trade and invoice finance, as well as business overdrafts and bank guarantees. Further, it offers insurance products consisting of home and content, landlord, travel, car, caravan and trailer, life, and business insurance products; and self-managed super funds, cash management, and financial advice services. Additionally, the company provides investment products; credit, debit, and business cards; payments and merchant services; online and internet banking services; small business services; international and foreign exchange solutions; and industry-specific banking services. The company was founded in 1834 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
National Australia Bank Limited reported revenue of A$60.2B in FY2025 versus A$20.9B in FY2021, a compound +30.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$6.8B in FY2025, compounding +1.5%/yr from FY2021.
NAB screens 33% overvalued. Compare with JPMorgan Chase & Co →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Global Analytics and Cyber Security Talent in Demand as NAB and Adani Recruit Deakin GIFT City Campus Students
- National Australia Bank’s Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness And Mixed Undervaluation Signals
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $341.10 | $278.99 | -18% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $59.67 | $55.89 | -6% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.16 | ¥17.20 | +69% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.50 | ¥13.44 | +79% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $100.52 | $84.67 | -16% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.37 | ¥11.85 | +86% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$305.74 | C$190.48 | -38% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥5.88 | ¥9.80 | +67% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFCS | C$23.58 | C$27.40 | +16% |
| Banco Santander, S.A SAN | 51.02 PLN | 55.60 PLN | +9% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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