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Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd stock $0.34, price $0.66, that is 48.8% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Basic Materials US · Home Canada · ISIN CA66510M2040

ND Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd

NAK · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 49% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Fair value $0.3378 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 38/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/9)
Narrow moat 0/100
Thin data
⟳ CyclicalEstimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$2.76 $0.2088 Fair Value $0.3378 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.2088 – $2.76 · fair‑value band $0.2534 – $0.4223 · the $0.6600 price screens above the $0.3378 fair value. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties in the United States. It primarily explores copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and rhenium deposits.

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The company holds 100% interest in the Pebble Copper-Gold-Molybdenum-Silver-Rhenium project comprising 1,840 mineral claims that covers an area of approximately 274 square miles located in southwest Alaska, the United States.

The company was formerly known as Northern Dynasty Explorations Ltd. and changed its name to Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. in October 1997. Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Stock analysis

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK) currently trades at $0.6600, while our estimate is $0.3378, 49% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $0.2534 (bear) to $0.4223 (bull), the price of $0.6600 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd reported revenue of C$0 in FY2025 versus C$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −C$104M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $399M Small · EPS (TTM) $−0.0900 · Return on equity −261% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.3% (5-year average) · Free cash flow −$23.2M · Net cash $51.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 74% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −49%, NAK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $0.2534 Fair Value $0.3378 Bull $0.4223
Price $0.6600 · Downside -48.8%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 50
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 50
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 41
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 2
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 19
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NAK screens overvalued: fair value 49% below the price. Compare with BHP Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 577 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Above median
Fair Value upside −48.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −86.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 22.49× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.06× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 4
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 33

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹262.00 ₹334.17 +28% vs NAK
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 57.00 SAR 64.24 SAR +13% vs NAK
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥28.25 ¥30.98 +10% vs NAK
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹575.95 ₹624.91 +9% vs NAK
Boliden AB BOL kr 515.20 kr 464.45 −10% vs NAK
BHP Group BHP A$60.39 A$47.47 −21% vs NAK
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥32.69 ¥25.57 −22% vs NAK
Korea Zinc Company 010130 967,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −33% vs NAK
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.71 ¥6.82 −50% vs NAK
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥40.90 ¥4.44 −89% vs NAK

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Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NAK

Frequently asked questions

Is Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $0.3378 versus a price of $0.6600, about 49% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NAK?
Our estimate for Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd is $0.3378 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.6600.
What is the quality score of NAK?
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $0.3378 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $0.2534, optimistic scenario $0.4223. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $0.3378, about 49% lower versus a price of $0.6600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2534, optimistic scenario $0.4223. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd it is $0.3378 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $0.6600.
Is Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, NAK trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.6600, fair value $0.3378, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NAK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.6600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3378). For Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd the two are $0.3222 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd at about $399M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $0.6600; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3378 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NAK?
Our models span a range for Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario $0.2534, base $0.3378, optimistic $0.4223 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $0.6600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of NAK?
The PEG ratio of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd is 2.06 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −261.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NAK from its 52-week high?
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd trades at $0.6600, about 74% below its 52-week high of $2.51 and 11% above the low of $0.5921 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3378 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $0.6600, calculated fair value $0.3378 (−49%), Quality Score 38/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $0.6600. Our estimate is $0.3378, about 49% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4223). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK)?
The market capitalisation of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd is $399M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK)?
Earnings per share at Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd are $−0.0900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd is −261% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd is −15.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK) generate?
The free cash flow of Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd is −$23.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK) hold?
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, $51.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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