Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc stock $214, price $160, upside +33.8%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $72.45 – $185.50 · fair‑value band $103.42 – $284.37 · the $159.76 price screens below the $213.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercialize pharmaceuticals for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine, and immunological disorders in the United States and internationally.
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The company's products include INGREZZA for tardive dyskinesia and chorea associated with Huntington's disease; Orilissa tablets for endometriosis; Oriahnn capsules to treat uterine fibroids; and CRENESSITY to treat congenital adrenal hyperplasia, as well as offers products under the name of ALKINDI and Efmody.
Its product candidates in clinical development includes NBI-1076986 to treat movement disorders; Osavampator for inadequate response to treatment in major depressive disorder; NBI-1117568 for the treatment of schizophrenia and bipolar mania; NBI-1117567 for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease; NBI 921355 for the treatment of epilepsy; NBIP-01435 for the treatment of congenital adrenal hyperplasia; NBIP-2118 for the treatment of obesity and related metabolic diseases; and NBI-1070770 to treat major depressive disorder; and NBI-1117570, NBI-1117567, NBI-1117569, NBI-1140675, and NBI-1065890 for neuropsychiatric and neurological conditions.
The company also has license and collaboration agreements with Nxera Pharma UK Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.; Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.; Sanofi S.A.; Tanabe Pharma Corporation; and AbbVie Inc. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Stock analysis
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) currently trades at $159.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $213.82, implying the stock looks roughly 25% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $218.75 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $159.76 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $45.30, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $103.42 (bear) to $284.37 (bull), the price of $159.76 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +26.0%/yr. Reported net income was $479M in FY2025, compounding +52.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $16.6B Large · P/E ratio 23.6 · P/S ratio 4.93 · EPS (TTM) $6.78 · Net margin 20.9% · Return on equity 22.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% · Operating margin 22.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 34%, NBIX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$103.42Fair Value $213.82Bull$284.37
Price $159.76 · Upside +33.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 12 officers or directors sold shares worth $65.6M and none bought.
SaleGeorge J MorrowDirector2× since Nov 25, 2025: 30,000 shares, avg. $149.55$4.5MNov 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMatt AbernethyChief Financial Officer2,311 shares at $157.20$363,289Sep 14, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDavid W. BoyerChief Corp. Affairs Officer2× since May 26, 2026: 4,714 shares, avg. $156.78$739,070Sep 14, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEric BenevichChief Commercial Officer2× since Nov 28, 2025: 8,124 shares, avg. $152.50$1.2MSep 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleLeslie Norwalk VDirector4× since Dec 15, 2025: 12,500 shares, avg. $157.91$2.0MJul 28, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleIngrid DelaetChief Regulatory Officer3× since May 29, 2026: 21,199 shares, avg. $176.80$3.7MJul 10, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDarin LippoldtChief Legal Officer3× since Dec 8, 2025: 24,376 shares, avg. $172.14$4.2MJul 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleStephen A SherwinDirector25,000 shares at $165.32$4.1MJun 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJulie CookeChief Human Resources Officer36,937 shares at $156.22$5.8MJun 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJude OnyiaChief Scientific Officer2× since May 27, 2026: 22,000 shares, avg. $157.89$3.5MJun 1, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 4 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 38 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +64.5% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+41.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+41.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 22%
2025 sits 89% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.4% a year for the price and +15.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Strong cash flows from the lead product and a debt-free balance sheet support ongoing pipeline investment, yet thin evidence of a moat and pricing headwinds limit assessment of durable advantage.
Main risk: The Inflation Reduction Act could force Medicare price negotiations for Ingrezza starting in 2029, cutting net prices by 25-34 percent and reducing revenue and margins on the product that generates nearly all current sales.
Bull case: Successful launches of pipeline assets in schizophrenia, depression and metabolic diseases could diversify revenue away from Ingrezza and offset any pricing pressure through new high-margin products.
Bear case: If IRA-mandated price cuts and Austedo competition sharply reduce Ingrezza profitability while pipeline candidates face delays or failures, overall revenue growth could stall and cash flows for further investment might weaken.
Neurocrine has built a portfolio of approved CNS and rare disease treatments funded by strong cash flows from its lead product and a debt-free balance sheet that supports ongoing pipeline investment. Multiple launches and internal programs point to further growth, yet pricing headwinds and integration of recent additions create real uncertainty. Our models see it as undervalued, but will the new assets and pipeline deliver more durable expansion than any pressure on the core franchise?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 552 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+33.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)20.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)22.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)39.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Is Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $213.82 versus a price of $159.76, about +34% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NBIX?
Our model-based fair value for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is $213.82 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $159.76.
What is the quality score of NBIX?
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $213.82 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $103.42, optimistic scenario $284.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Neurocrine Biosciences Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $213.82, about +34% upside versus a price of $159.76 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $103.42, optimistic scenario $284.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Neurocrine Biosciences Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +5.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.3 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NBIX use?
Our models discount Neurocrine Biosciences Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Neurocrine Biosciences Inc that is +5.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Neurocrine Biosciences Inc grew +22.3 % a year. The price currently implies +5.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (+5.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.50 %: that much free cash flow Neurocrine Biosciences Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Neurocrine Biosciences Inc it is $213.82 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $159.76. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Neurocrine Biosciences Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, NBIX trades below its calculated fair value: price $159.76, fair value $213.82, a gap of about +34% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NBIX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($159.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($213.82). For Neurocrine Biosciences Inc the two are $54.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Neurocrine Biosciences Inc worth?
The market values Neurocrine Biosciences Inc at about $16.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $159.76; our models calculate a fair value of $213.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NBIX?
Our models span a range for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc: cautious scenario $103.42, base $213.82, optimistic $284.37 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $159.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NBIX?
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.6 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $213.82 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings: 64.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 5.1, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 17.8.
What is the PEG ratio of NBIX?
The PEG ratio of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is 0.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 22.1%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NBIX from its 52-week high?
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc trades at $159.76, about 14% below its 52-week high of $185.50 and 30% above the low of $123.10 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $213.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Neurocrine Biosciences Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Galderma Group, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Neurocrine Biosciences Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $159.76, calculated fair value $213.82 (+34%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NBIX calculated?
We run Neurocrine Biosciences Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $213.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Neurocrine Biosciences Inc currently trades 25% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $159.76. Our model-based fair value is $213.82, about +34% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Neurocrine Biosciences Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($103.42 to $284.37). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (70/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
The market capitalisation of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is $16.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is 4.93 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
Earnings per share at Neurocrine Biosciences Inc are $6.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
The net margin of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is 20.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
The operating margin of Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
Revenue at Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is growing +39.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX)?
Earnings per share at Neurocrine Biosciences Inc are growing +31.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) hold?
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc holds more cash than debt, $298M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 3, 2026