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NGX Ltd (NGX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of NGX Ltd stock A$0.02, price A$0.15, that is 86.7% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials AU · ISIN AU0000273088

NL NGX Ltd logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

NGX Ltd

NGX · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 87% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 42/100
Revenue last quarter 57% below a year ago.
Fair value A$0.0200 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/6)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$1.27 A$0.0410 Fair Value A$0.0200 May 2010 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0410 – A$1.27 · fair‑value band A$0.0100 – A$0.0200 · the A$0.1500 price screens above the A$0.0200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

NGX Limited, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the exploration and development of resource projects in Malawi and Namibia. The company explores for graphite and uranium deposits. NGX Limited was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

NGX Ltd (NGX) currently trades at A$0.1500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0200, 87% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0100 (bear) to A$0.0200 (bull), the price of A$0.1500 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

NGX Ltd reported revenue of A$233K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −A$2.3M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$13.6M (≈ $9.4M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0200 · Return on equity −24.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −156,643% (5-year average) · Operating margin −1,059% · Revenue (TTM) A$101K · Revenue growth (YoY) −56.5% · Free cash flow −A$2.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 114% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −87%, NGX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0100 Fair Value A$0.0200 Bull A$0.0200
Price A$0.1500 · Downside -86.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0200 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0200 53

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 92
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 67
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 55
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

NGX screens overvalued: fair value 87% below the price. Compare with BHP Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 372 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Above median
Fair Value upside −86.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −27.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −56.5% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.69× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹261.75 ₹334.17 +28% vs NGX
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.25 SAR 64.96 SAR +12% vs NGX
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹568.10 ₹624.91 +10% vs NGX
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥27.56 ¥30.32 +10% vs NGX
Boliden AB BOL kr 503.40 kr 464.45 −8% vs NGX
BHP Group BHP A$59.20 A$47.85 −19% vs NGX
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥33.04 ¥25.57 −23% vs NGX
Korea Zinc Company 010130 960,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −32% vs NGX
CMOC Group 603993 ¥13.29 ¥6.82 −49% vs NGX
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥38.65 ¥4.44 −89% vs NGX

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NGX Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NGX Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NGX

Frequently asked questions

Is NGX Ltd (NGX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0200 versus a price of A$0.1500, about 87% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NGX?
Our model-based fair value for NGX Ltd is A$0.0200 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1500.
What is the quality score of NGX?
NGX Ltd has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NGX Ltd (NGX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0200 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0100, optimistic scenario A$0.0200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NGX Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0200, about 87% lower versus a price of A$0.1500 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0100, optimistic scenario A$0.0200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
NGX Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$101K (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NGX Ltd it is A$0.0200 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$0.1500. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is NGX Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, NGX trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1500, fair value A$0.0200, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NGX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1500); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0200). For NGX Ltd the two are A$0.1300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NGX Ltd worth?
The market values NGX Ltd at about A$13.6M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1500; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NGX?
Our models span a range for NGX Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0100, base A$0.0200, optimistic A$0.0200 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$0.1500). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
Balance-sheet figures for NGX Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −24.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NGX from its 52-week high?
NGX Ltd trades at A$0.1500, about 9% below its 52-week high of A$0.1650 and 114% above the low of A$0.0700 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NGX Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BHP Group, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NGX Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$0.1500, calculated fair value A$0.0200 (−87%), Quality Score 42/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NGX calculated?
We run NGX Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0200 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. NGX Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$0.1500. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0200, about 87% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NGX Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0200). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0100 to A$0.0200) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of NGX Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
The market capitalisation of NGX Ltd is A$13.6M (≈ $9.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
Earnings per share at NGX Ltd are A$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NGX Ltd is −24.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NGX Ltd is −156,643% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NGX Ltd (NGX)?
The operating margin of NGX Ltd is −1,059% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NGX Ltd (NGX)?
Revenue at NGX Ltd is growing −56.5% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does NGX Ltd (NGX) generate?
The free cash flow of NGX Ltd is −A$2.2M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does NGX Ltd (NGX) hold?
NGX Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$1.6M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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